. Daily FX Analysis - Monitor currency pairs, await economic data.

Daily FX Analysis – Monitor currency pairs, await economic data.

Daily FX Analysis – Monitor currency pairs, await economic data.

27 Feb 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD maintains its position below 1.2700 amidst a cautious market atmosphere and a softer US Dollar. Traders are closely monitoring BoE and Fed speeches, alongside US economic data. The pair benefits from a dovish Fed stance, while recent BoE comments spark speculations of delayed rate cuts. Meanwhile, EUR/USD sees support near 1.0850, driven by a subdued US Dollar and hawkish remarks from ECB President Lagarde. NZD/USD faces selling pressure, hitting a one-week low, as retreating US bond yields and upcoming RBNZ add to market dynamics. USD/CHF consolidates around 0.8800, awaiting cues from US and Swiss GDP data, with FOMC minutes suggesting a cautious approach to rate cuts.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD holds steady below 1.2700, BoE-speak, US data eyed.

GBP/USD is keeping its range trade intact below 1.2700 early Tuesday. A softer US Dollar and a cautious market mood are contributing to the bull-bear tug-of-war, as traders await the speeches from the BoE and the Fed policymakers alongside the US macro news. The GBP/USD pair extends the rally below the 1.2700 psychological barrier during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed had reaffirmed a data-driven approach, leading to a more dovish outlook, which weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and creates a tailwind for the pair. At press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2685, gaining 0.02% on the day. A testimony to the UK Treasury committee by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and other policymakers last week prompted speculation of delay rate cuts, which lift the Pound Sterling (GBP).

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2648 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2644 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2635 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2631 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2628 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2674 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.2738 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.4562 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2648 | Take Profit: 1.2731 | Stop Loss: 1.2606

EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades better bid near 1.0850 ahead of US data.

EUR/USD is trading better bid near 1.0850 in the European morning on Tuesday. The pair stays supported amid a broadly subdued US Dollar and hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde. The focus now shifts to the high-impact US economic data. Following Friday’s knee-jerk, EUR/USD managed to resume its multi-session recovery and revisited the 1.0860 region amidst an auspicious kickstart to the new trading week. The move higher in spot also came against the backdrop of the resurgence of the upward trend in US and German yields, always amidst ongoing speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later in the year (maybe June).

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0815 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0813 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0834 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0802 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0790 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0881 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.6800 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 75.0948 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.0836 | Take Profit: 1.0892 | Stop Loss: 1.0804

NZD/USD

NZD/USD hangs near weekly low, looks to US data ahead of RBNZ on Wednesday.

NZD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day and drops to a one-week low on Tuesday. Retreating US bond yields undermines the USD and helps limit the downside for the major. Traders look to the US macro data for a fresh impetus ahead of the RBNZ on Wednesday. The NZD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Tuesday and drops to a one-week low, around mid-0.6100s during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, recovered a few pips from the daily trough in the wake of a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick and currently trade around the 0.6165 region, down just over 0.10% for the day. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains depressed amid a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, helps limit the downside for the NZD/USD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6159 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6146 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6140 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6153 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6126 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6177 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.9590 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 76.7468 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6267 R2 : 0.6329
  • S1 : 0.6066 S2 : 0.6004

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.6152 | Take Profit: 0.6213 | Stop Loss: 0.6115

USD/CHF

USD/CHF consolidates around 0.8800, investors await US, and Swiss GDP data.

USD/CHF trades sideways near the 0.8800 mark in Tuesday’s early European session. The FOMC minutes indicated that policymakers were worried about moving too fast to cut their rate and preferred to wait for more data. The markets expect the SNB to start rate cuts in September, even though the recent inflation data might speed up the timeline. The USD/CHF pair consolidates in a narrow trading range during the early European session on Tuesday. Investors seem to prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of key events from the US and Swiss dockets. Meanwhile, the decline of the US Dollar (USD) weighs on the pair. At press time, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8798, adding 0.02% on the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3496 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3484 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3473 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3499 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.3484 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3414 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.8916 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 52.0833 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3520 R2 : 1.3594
  • S1 : 1.3281 S2 : 1.3207

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.3485 | Take Profit: 1.3558 | Stop Loss: 1.3442

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

AUD/USD up 0.14% to 0.6549. The USD/CAD was down 0.04% to 1.3499. The EUR/GBP is down 0.05% at 0.8544. USD/JPY down 0.04% at 150.48. AUD/NZD is up 0.24% at 1.0616, The USD/CNY is down 0.01% at 7.1961, and AUD/SEK is up 0.11% at 6.7321, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) Actual 2.0%, Forecast 1.9%, Previous 2.3% at 05:00. (USD) Core Durable Goods Order (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.6% at 19:00. (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) Forecast 114.8, Previous 114.8 at 20:30.