. Daily FX Analysis - Navigate Forex, trade smarter, gain insights.

Daily FX Analysis – Navigate Forex, trade smarter, gain insights.

Daily FX Analysis – Navigate Forex, trade smarter, gain insights.

08 Apr 2024

Introduction

The EUR/USD pair faces modest losses amid a stronger USD, hovering above the 1.0800 mark. Despite a positive risk tone potentially limiting the USD’s safe-haven appeal, traders anticipate fresh cues from upcoming US CPI, FOMC minutes, and ECB meetings. Meanwhile, GBP/USD remains vulnerable below 1.2665, while the Australian Dollar oscillates amidst market sentiment, and the Japanese Yen struggles against a buoyant USD amid a dovish BoJ stance and weak domestic data.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades with modest losses amid stronger USD and holds above the 1.0800 mark.

EUR/USD edges lower on Monday as the upbeat US NFP continues to underpin the USD. A positive risk tone might cap the safe-haven buck and lend some support to the major. Traders now look to the US CPI, FOMC minutes, and the ECB meeting for a fresh impetus. The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on Friday’s goodish rebound of around 50 pips from sub-1.0800 levels and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0825-1.0820 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics, though the downside seems cushioned. The upbeat US monthly employment data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report – showed that the economy added more than the anticipated, 303K jobs in March. This forced investors to scale back their bets for an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June and the total number of rate cuts to two in 2024. The outlook keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated, which, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD and exerting some pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0823 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0832 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0842 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0809 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0845 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0829 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.6622 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 51.0632 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0928 R2 : 1.0978
  • S1 : 1.0765 S2 : 1.0715

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0843 | Take Profit: 1.0821 | Stop Loss: 1.0859

GBP/USD

GBP/USD looks vulnerable whilst below 1.2665.

The Pound Sterling holds its rebound from seven-month lows against the US Dollar.GBP/USD stays cautious ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI inflation data. The Pound Sterling faces downside risks, as the daily RSI remains below 50.00. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD), as the GBP/USD pair manages to hold above the 1.2600 level at the start of the week on Monday. A negative shift in risk sentiment, despite easing Middle East geopolitical tensions, weighs on the higher-yielding Pound Sterling while the US Dollar struggles for traction amid the market’s nervousness ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2633 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2652 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2661 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2619 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2670 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2664 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.4726 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 36.6286 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2819 R2 : 1.2894
  • S1 : 1.2576 S2 : 1.2501

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.2642 | Take Profit : 1.2592 | Stop Loss: 1.2680

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar moves back and forth amid positive market sentiment, firmer US Dollar.

The Australian Dollar moves higher after recovering daily losses amid a stronger ASX 200 Index.Australia’s equity market strengthens following Friday’s gains on Wall Street.The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered intraday losses and moved into positive territory on Monday, likely influenced by gains in the domestic equity market. The ASX 200 Index sees upward movement during the week’s opening session, particularly driven by a surge in tech stocks. However, the steady US Dollar (USD) may attempt to constrain the advancement of the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar (AUD) faced challenges following the release of unchanged Final Retail Sales and downbeat Trade Balance data from Australia during the previous week. Notably, Australia reported its smallest Trade Surplus in five months for February, attributed partly to a decline in iron ore exports.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6554 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6551 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6557 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6541 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6553 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6542 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.7964 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.8449 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6628 R2 : 0.6673
  • S1 : 0.6483 S2 : 0.6438

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.6572 | Take Profit: 0.6623 | Stop Loss: 0.6545

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen sticks to intraday losses against the USD, bears await a break below the multi-decade low.

The Japanese Yen drifts lower for the second straight day and is pressured by a combination of factors. The BoJ’s cautious stance, softer domestic data and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY. The upbeat US NFP-inspired USD strength lifts the USD/JPY pair back closer to the multi-decade high. The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and retreats further from over a two-week high touched against its American counterpart on Friday. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) dovish language, signaling that the next rate hike will be some time away, along with a positive risk tone, continues to undermine the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, softer domestic data, showing that real wages in Japan fell in February for the 23rd consecutive month, drags the JPY lower for the second straight day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 151.3948 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 150.8977 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.7621 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 151.5014 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 150.6533 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.8270 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 64.1268 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.3968 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 152.0153 R2 : 153.3100
  • S1 : 147.8240 S2 : 146.5293

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 150.85 | Take Profit: 151.95 | Stop Loss: 150.19

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.04% to 0.6015, The USD/CAD up 0.07% to 1.3598. The EUR/GBP up 0.11% at 0.8578. USD/CHF up 0.22% at 0.9033. AUD/NZD up 0.4% at 1.0940, The USD/CNY up 0.01% at 7.2320, AUD/SEK up 0.08% at 6.9996, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) Forecast –0.6%, Previous 1.0% at 11:30. (EUR) German Trade Balance (Feb) Forecast 25.91B, Previous 27.5B at 11:30.