. Daily FX Analysis-NZD/USD Firm, Core PCE Surges, USD/CAD Gains, USD/CHF Drops, EUR/GBP Pressure

Daily FX Analysis-NZD/USD Firm, Core PCE Surges, USD/CAD Gains, USD/CHF Drops, EUR/GBP Pressure

Daily FX Analysis-NZD/USD Firm, Core PCE Surges, USD/CAD Gains, USD/CHF Drops, EUR/GBP Pressure

02 Oct 2023

Introduction:

In the world of currency markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate is holding steady below the key 0.6000 level, with all eyes on upcoming events such as the US PMI data and a speech by Fed’s Powell. Meanwhile, USD/CAD is showing strength around 1.3580, supported by positive momentum after mild US data. In the USD/CHF pair, a downward trajectory toward 0.9100 is observed ahead of Swiss CPI data and amidst the USD’s strength driven by a hawkish view on interest rates. Lastly, EUR/GBP is trading with modest losses, influenced by factors like dismal German macro data and anticipation of ECB’s Lagarde speech and Eurozone CPI data.

NZD/USD:
NZD/USD unchanged below 0.6000, US PMI, Fed’s Powell speech eyed.

In advance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate decision, the NZD/USD exchange rate is unchanged at 0.5994.

According to forecasts, the annual Core PCE Price Index increased by 3.9% from 4.3% in July.

Market participants await the RBNZ monetary policy meeting and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Following a retracement from the seven-week highs of 0.6048 in the early Asian session on Monday, the NZD/USD pair is consolidating below the 0.6000 level. Before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate announcement and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, traders choose to stay out of the market. The pair is up 0.05% on the day and is now trading near 0.5996.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.5993 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.5965 Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.5948 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.6004 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.5963 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.5935 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.41 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 63.87| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.6004 | R2: 0.6106
  • S1: 0.5913 | S2: 0.5819

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.6031 | Take Profit: 0.6106 | Stop Loss: 0.5819

USD/CAD:

USD/CAD strengthens around 1.3580; US, Canada PMI data eyed.

Following Friday’s mild US data, USD/CAD gains momentum.

The Canadian Dollar’s losses might be limited by the increase in crude oil prices.

During the first trading day of the week, USD/CAD maintained its advances. Around 1.3580 in the early Asian session on Monday, the spot price is pushing the quotes higher.

The US Dollar (USD), which is buoyant following the mild economic data provided on Friday, is the main factor supporting the USD/CAD pair’s upward movement. The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September improved from the previous reading of 67.7, which was in line with expectations, to 68.1.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1.3548| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1.3509 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.3512 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1.3533 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1.3496 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.3515 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.45| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 96.54 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 1.3590| R2: 1.3695
  • S1: 1.3521| S2: 1.3430

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy 1.3631| Take Profit: 1.3695 | Stop Loss: 1.3592

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF persists on a downward trajectory toward 0.9100, Swiss CPI, US PMI eyed.

Ahead of Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index for Switzerland, the USD/CHF declines.

The market expects a 1.8% increase in the Swiss CPI over the 1.6% recorded previously. The US Dollar (USD) is made stronger by the Fed’s hawkish view on the interest rate trajectory.

During the early European trading hours on Monday, USD/CHF moved lower around 0.9120, continuing its downward trajectory. The positive economic data from Switzerland puts downward pressure on the pair.

Additionally, Chinese Manufacturing PMI data over the weekend improved into positive territory, which may have an impact on the strength of the US dollar. Due to its reputation as a safe-haven currency, this development might have supported the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.9140 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.9122| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 0.9042 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.9135 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.9132 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 0.9024| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.29 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 41.18| Neutral Zone| Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.9158 | R2: 0.9225
  • S1: 0.9112 | S2: 0.9005

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.9074 | Take Profit: 0.9005 | Stop Loss: 0.9129

EUR/GBP:

EUR/GBP trades with modest losses near mid- 0.8600 ahead of ECB’s Lagarde, Eurozone CPI.

On Friday, the EUR/GBP encounters new supply and trades barely above the weekly low.

The Euro is undercut and under some pressure as a result of the dismal German macro data.

Ahead of the Eurozone CPI, traders are now looking to Lagarde speech for some motivation.

On Friday, the EUR/GBP cross attracts further sellers close to the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and halts the overnight recovery from the 0.8630 region, or a one-week low. While the mixed fundamental backdrop necessitates prudence before preparing for an extension of this week’s rejection decline from the crucial 200-day SMA, spot prices are still depressed and hovering around the mid-0.8600s during the early European session.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.8664 | Positive Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.8662 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.8664 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.8661 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.8675| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 0.8633| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.74| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 51.77| Buy | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.8671 | R2: 0.8719
  • S1: 0.8638 | S2: 0.8604

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.8683 | Take Profit: 0.8719 | Stop Loss: 0.8661

Elsewhere in the Forex Market

EUR/USD up 0.07% to 1.0582. The GBP/USD up 0.09% to 1.2212. The AUD/USD down 0.15% at 0.6423. USD/JPY up 0.18% at 149.58, CAD/JPY up 0.08% at 110.26 The USD/CNY down 0.00% at 7.3015, AUD/SEK down 0.28% at 7.004, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) Actual 9, Forecast 6, Previous 5 at 05:20.

(EUR) Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Actual 47, Forecast 46.5, Previous 46.5 at 12:45.

(GBP) Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Forecast 44.2, Previous 43.0 at 14:00.

(USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Forecast 47.7, Previous 47.6 at 19:30.

(USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 20:30.