. Daily FX Analysis - NZD/USD Stable, USD/CHF Eyes Record, EUR/GBP Slides

Daily FX Analysis – NZD/USD Stable, USD/CHF Eyes Record, EUR/GBP Slides.

Daily FX Analysis – NZD/USD Stable, USD/CHF Eyes Record, EUR/GBP Slides.

28 Sep 2023

Introduction:

In the world of forex, the NZD/USD pair remains steady just below the mid-0.5900s, with attention split between China’s property market struggles and impending US GDP data. Meanwhile, the USD shows resilience, fuelled by positive US durable goods orders, but the Kiwi faces pressure due to concerns over China’s real estate sector. Traders eagerly await US economic indicators while also keeping an eye on New Zealand’s economic sentiment and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s potential policy moves. Here’s a snapshot of key currency pairs in today’s market: NZD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, and USD/CAD.

NZD/USD:

NZD/USD is unchanged below mid-0.5900s as China’s property market struggles continue, and US GDP data is the focus.

NZD/USD is stable at 0.5937 after recovering from its Thursday low of 0.5860.

The US Dollar (USD) is generally strengthened by the positive US durable goods orders. The China-proxy Kiwi is under some pressure from worries about China’s struggling real estate industry.

The US GDP for Q2, the US weekly jobless claims, and the Pending Home Sales are all anticipated by traders.

Earlier Thursday, the National Bank of New Zealand stated that the nation’s ANZ Business Confidence for September rose to 1.5 from a 3.7 decrease in August. In addition, the ANZ Activity Outlook increased from 11.2% in the previous report to 10.9 in September. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep its present monetary policy unchanged at its policy meeting next week. However, the market thinks that the RBNZ will raise interest rates once more in November.

Technical Overview :

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.5938 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.5939| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.5935 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.5932 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.5943 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 0.5921 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.32 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 41.76| Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels: 

  • R1: 0.5947 | R2: 0.6015
  • S1: 0.5896 | S2: 0.5850


Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.5969 | Take Profit: 0.6015 | Stop Loss: 0.5940

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF stands tall near a multi-month peak, above the 0.9200 mark on bullish USD.

Consolidating its recent significant upward movement to a six-month high, USD/CHF is currently observed. The USD is still supported and supported by the Fed’s hawkish stance.

The safe-haven CHF benefits from the risk-off mindset, which also holds any additional gains in check.

The USD/CHF pair recovered from a slight decline that it saw during the Asian session on Thursday and is currently trading above the 0.9200 level, which puts it very close to the record high it reached the day before in late March.

Despite a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar (USD) manages to hold steady near a 10-month high and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.  

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.9816| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.9107 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.9016 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.9191 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.9092 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.8977 | positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 83.92| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 88.59 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels: 

  • R1: 0.9207| R2: 0.9338
  • S1: 0.9118 | S2: 0.9013

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy 0.9228| Take Profit: 0.9338 | Stop Loss: 0.9144

EUR/GBP:

EUR/GBP falling back from 0.8700 as the market prepares for EU CPI, UK GDP.

After reaching a top of 0.8706 during the session, the EUR/GBP dropped from recent highs to settle at 0.8660.

As markets prepared for the Thursday trading session, the Euro (EUR) struggled to hold onto gains against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and dropped the 0.8700 handle.

The European Central Bank (ECB), which releases its Economic Bulletin two weeks after each Governing Council meeting, will release its most recent edition during the upcoming European market session. Investors will learn more specifics about the topics that the ECB discussed at its most recent meeting, but the market impact is likely to be minimal because the ECB adopted a noticeably dovish tone at its last meeting.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.8660 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.8662| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 0.8633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.8665 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.8670 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 0.8621| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.88 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator: 12.88| Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels: 

  • R1: 0.8670 | R2: 0.8703
  • S1: 0.8633 | S2: 0.8568


Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.8612 | Take Profit: 0.8568 | Stop Loss: 0.8644

USD/CAD:

USD/CAD drops below 1.3500 and is under pressure from rising crude oil prices.

Due to the rise in crude oil prices, the USD/CAD stays below the psychological level of 1. 3500. The aggressive stance of the Fed is accelerating the US dollar’s upward trend.

During the early European trading hours on Thursday, USD/CAD continued to decline and was trading at 1.3490. The rise in Crude Oil costs has presented difficulties for the couple.

The drop in US crude stocks fuels worries about an impending economic crisis brought on by quickly rising borrowing costs, which helps to sustain WTI prices. Since Canada is one of the top oil exporters to the United States (US), this could damage the USD/CAD pair.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1.3498 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1.3492 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.3509 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1.3503 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1.3481| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.3533| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.04 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 60.19| Buy | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels: 

  • R1: 1.3519 | R2: 1.3602
  • S1: 1.3447 | S2: 1.3376

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.3540 | Take Profit: 1.3602 | Stop Loss: 1.3499

Elsewhere in the Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.3% to 0.5940. The EUR/JPY up 0.04% to 157.12. The USDCHF is down 0.32% at 0.9183. USD/CAD is up 0.02% at 1.3504, and EUR/GBP down 0.02% at 0.8637. The USD/CNY is down 0.02% at 7.3082, and AUD/SEK is up 0.07% at 7.0342, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) Actual 0.2%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous –0.8% at 07:00.

(EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Sep) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 17:30.

(USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q2) Forecast 2.1%, Previous 4.1% at 18:00

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 215K, Previous 201K at 18:00.

(USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) Forecast –0.8%, Previous 0.9% at 19:30.