. Daily FX Analysis - Track EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF.

Daily FX Analysis – Track EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF.

Daily FX Analysis – Track EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF.

03 Apr 2024

Introduction

In the currency markets, EUR/USD maintains a position below the 1.0800 mark, influenced by soft Eurozone inflation data revealed during the European session on Wednesday. Meanwhile, GBP/USD struggles below 1.2600 amidst geopolitical tensions and awaits key US data releases. NZD/USD, however, sees steady gains, supported by a weaker USD. Similarly, USD/CHF remains below 0.9100 amid risk-off sentiment, with bullish momentum prevailing near year-to-date highs.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD stays below 1.0800 after soft Eurozone inflation data.

EUR/USD continues to fluctuate in a narrow channel below 1.0800 in the European session on Wednesday. The data from the Eurozone showed that the annual HICP inflation edged lower to 2.4% in March, limiting Euro’s upside. EUR/USD gained traction and closed in positive territory on Tuesday after touching its weakest level below 1.0730. The pair seems to have gone into a consolidation phase above 1.0750 early Wednesday ahead of key data releases. The renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness helped EUR/USD stage a rebound during the American trading hours on Tuesday. Although there was a negative shift in risk sentiment, investors refrained from betting on an extended USD rally.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0801 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0825 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0840 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0802 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0857 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0828 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 39.8225 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 15.0768 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0928 R2 : 1.0978
  • S1 : 1.0765 S2 : 1.0715

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.0776 | Take Profit : 1.0706 | Stop Loss : 1.0832

GBP/USD

GBP/USD struggles below 1.2600, awaits US data, Fedspeak.

GBP/USD is struggling to gain traction below 1.2600 in European trading on Wednesday. The US Dollar licks its wound even as the risk tone remains tepid amid reduced bets of the Fed rate cuts this year and rising geopolitical tensions. Focus shifts to US jobs data and Fedspeak. GBP/USD went into a consolidation phase above 1.2550 after closing modestly higher on Tuesday. The technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup of recovery momentum, while investors await data releases from the US. The US Dollar (USD) came under modest selling pressure in the American trading hours on Tuesday and allowed GBP/USD to edge higher. Since there were no fundamental developments that may have caused the USD to lose interest, the pullback in the USD Index could be the product of a technical correction.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2618 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2650 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2661 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2610 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2695 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2667 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 39.3216 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.0897 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2819 R2 : 1.2894
  • S1 : 1.2576 S2 : 1.2501

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.2599 | Take Profit : 1.2510 | Stop Loss : 1.2666

NZD/USD

NZD/USD steadily climbs to 0.5975 area, fresh daily peak amid modest USD weakness.

NZD/USD reverses an Asian session dip and turns positive for the second straight day. The USD retreats further from a multi-month peak set on Tuesday and lends support. Reduced June Fed rate cut bets and a softer risk tone should help limit the USD losses. The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Wednesday and might now be looking to build on the overnight recovery move from levels just below mid-0.5900s, or the YTD low. Spot prices currently trade near the top end of the daily range, around the 0.5970-0.5975 region, and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, drift lower for the second successive day and moves away from its highest level since February 14, which, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. That said, reduced bets for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) should help limit any meaningful downside for the Greenback and keep a lid on any further gains for the currency pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.5994 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6032 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6080 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.5988 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6056 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6094 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 32.9726 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.6069 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6149 R2 : 0.6211
  • S1 : 0.5951 S2 : 0.5890

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 0.5983 | Take Profit : 0.5915 | Stop Loss : 0.6033

USD/CHF

USD/CHF remains below 0.9100 amid risk-off, bulls have the upper hand near YTD top.

The USD/CHF pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow band near its highest level since November 11 touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.9080 region and seem poised to prolong the recent positive momentum witnessed over the past month or so. The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to be undermined by the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) unexpected move to cut interest rates in March amid a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in inflation and economic growth. In contrast, the markets have been scaling back their expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) amid signs of a still-resilient US economy. This, in turn, favours the US Dollar (USD) bulls and validates the positive outlook for the USD/CHF pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.9014 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8952 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8853 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.9023 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8919 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8821 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 77.9587 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.9428 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.9068 R2 : 0.9148
  • S1 : 0.8807 S2 : 0.8726

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 0.9037 | Take Profit : 0.9111 | Stop Loss : 0.8991

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

AUD/USD down 0.14% to 0.6508, The USD/CAD up 0.06% to 1.3574. The EUR/GBP down 0.14% at 0.8546. USD/JPY up 0.12% at 151.74. AUD/NZD up 0.1% at 1.0913, The USD/CNY up 0.06% at 7.2344, AUD/SEK down 0.08% at 6.9915, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) CPI (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.6% at 14:30. (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment (Mar) Forecast –148K, Previous –140K at 17:45. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) Forecast 52.8, Previous 52.5 at 19:30. (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:40.