Market Rally Extends Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq Surpass Expectations with Impressive Gains, Capping Off a Successful Month for US Indices.

Introduction

The US market closed on a high note, with the Dow rising by 0.28%, the S&P by 0.15%, and the Nasdaq by 0.21%. Amidst post-BOJ turbulence, the JPY lost ground against major currencies. As we enter another eventful week, investors anticipate important data releases while US Treasury yields slightly declined, and oil prices surged, reaching levels unseen since April. Brent is currently trading above $85 per barrel, while WTI hovers just under $82 per barrel.

Volatility on the Horizon as Event Risk Grows

Traders are gearing up for a busy day, as the calendar heats up following a one-day break. Asian markets will focus on China’s latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI data before returning attention to the antipodes and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate update. During the European session, several Manufacturing PMI numbers and job updates will be released, while the New York Open will shift attention to US data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers and the most recent JOLTS Job Openings data are on the schedule. Investors seek confirmation of a soft landing through positive prints.

US Session Highlights

The Chicago PMI fell for the eleventh consecutive month, indicating sluggish manufacturing and services activity and regional economic deterioration. The Eurozone’s flash CPI for July showed the core reading’s stickiness, with the headline figure slightly declining. The dollar index (DXY) rebounded overnight from 101.55 to 101.90.

Asia Session: RBA Cash Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to increase its cash rate by 25 basis points to reach 4.35%. However, with inflation drifting downward over the past three months, RBA Governor Philip Lowe may choose to keep rates unchanged, providing room for flexibility.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key News Events Today: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings

Expectations for DXY: The ISM Manufacturing PMI reading for July is anticipated to show a decline, consistent with the trend over the past eight months. The JOLTS data could potentially stimulate the dollar if it surpasses expectations.

Central Bank Notes

• The federal funds rate target range is set at 5.25% to 5.50%.
• The Committee is firmly committed to returning inflation to its 2% target.
• Monetary policy will be adjusted if risks emerge that hinder goal achievement.
• Labor market conditions, inflation pressures, expectations, and international and financial developments will be considered.
• The next meeting runs from 19 to 20 September 2023.

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key News Event Today: Unemployment Rate

Expectations for JPY: The unemployment rate decreased marginally to 2.5% in June, and the Bank of Japan conducted an impromptu bond-purchasing operation, affecting the USDJPY rate. A move towards 143.00 for the USDJPY pair cannot be ruled out.

Central Bank Notes

• The Bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the 2% price stability target.
• Measures include a negative interest rate of -0.1% on policy-rate balances and purchasing Japanese government bonds to maintain 10-year JGB yields of around +0.5%.
• A temporary deceleration in inflation is expected, followed by moderate acceleration supported by improvements in the output gap and inflation expectations.
• Japan’s economy is expected to recover gradually.
• The next meeting is on 22 September 2023.

The Euro (EUR)

Key News Events Today: Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate

Expectations for EUR: Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone is expected to decline in July, marking a year of severe recession. The euro fell from 1.1040 to around 1.0990.

Central Bank Notes

• The ECB raised the three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
• A slight lowering of economic growth projections.
• The Governing Council will ensure interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to achieve the inflation target and maintain them as long as needed.
• Rate decisions will be data-dependent, considering inflation outlook, economic data, underlying inflation dynamics, and monetary policy transmission strength.
• Next meeting on 14 September 2023.

Global Markets

• Asian Stock Markets: Nikkei up 0.92%, Shanghai Composite neutral 0.00%, Hang Seng down 0.65%, ASX up 0.54%.
• European Equities: DAX futures are down 0.14%, CAC 40 is down 0.24%, and FTSE is down 0.07%.
• US Stock Market: Dow Jones is up 0.28%, S&P 500 is up 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 is up 0.21%.

Commodities

• Gold at $1956.02 (-0.46%)
• Silver at $24.54 (-0.78%)
• Brent Oil at $85.25 (-0.19%)
• WTI Oil at $81.64 (-0.20%)

News & Data

• (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) Actual 4.10%, Forecast 4.45%, Previous 4.10% at 10:00
• (AUD) RBA Rate Statement at 10:00
• (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Actual 49.2, Forecast 50.3, Previous 50.5 at 07:15
• (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Jul) Forecast 20K, Previous 28K at 13:25
• (USD) JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) Forecast 9.610M, Previous 9.824M at 19:30
• (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) Forecast 46.8, Previous 46.0 at 19:30

GBPUSD – Leveraging Moving Averages and Indicators for Optimal Trades

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Presenting a Sell sentiment at 1.2833.
• EMA 20: Reinforcing the Sell indication at 1.2861.
• EMA 50: Aligning with a Sell recommendation at 1.2867.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Signaling a Sell sentiment at 1.2836.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Sell stance at 1.2856.
• SMA 50: Confirming a Sell indication at 1.2924.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Displaying a Neutral signal at 42.10.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Negative condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Identified at 1.2847.
• Support: Observed at 1.2794.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2769
• Take Profit: 1.2672
• Stop Loss: 1.2857

EURUSD – Technical Insights for Informed Trading

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Indicating a Sell signal at 1.0996.
• EMA 20: Signalling a Sell sentiment at 1.1039.
• EMA 50: Suggesting a Sell indication at 1.1052.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Reinforcing the Sell recommendation at 1.0999.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Sell sentiment at 1.1038.
• SMA 50: Affirming a Sell indication at 1.1102.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Signifying a Negative signal at 38.20.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Negative stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Observed at 1.1043.
• Support: Identified at 1.0964.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of EURUSD points towards a Sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favourable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.0942
• Take Profit: 1.0845
• Stop Loss: 1.1028

AUDUSD – Strategizing Trades with Detailed Analysis

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Indicating a Sell signal at 0.6671.
• EMA 20: Signalling a Sell sentiment at 0.6713.
• EMA 50: Suggesting a Sell indication at 0.6733.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Reinforcing the Sell recommendation at 0.6681.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Sell sentiment at 0.6722.
• SMA 50: Affirming a Sell indication at 0.6753.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Signifying a Bearish signal at 35.71.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Negative stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Observed at 0.6676.
• Support: Identified at 0.6619.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of AUDUSD points towards a Sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favourable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 0.6602
• Take Profit: 0.6542
• Stop Loss: 0.6650

USDJPY – Seizing Opportunities with Informed Trading Strategies

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Indicating a Buy signal at 142.20.
• EMA 20: Signalling a Buy sentiment at 141.11.
• EMA 50: Suggesting a Buy indication at 140.90.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Reinforcing the Buy recommendation at 142.34.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Buy sentiment at 141.02.
• SMA 50: Affirming a Buy indication at 140.17.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Signifying a Buy signal at 64.44.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Observed at 143.02.
• Support: Identified at 141.73.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of USDJPY points towards a Buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favourable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 143.41
• Take Profit: 144.70
• Stop Loss: 142.62

NASDAQ 100 – Strategic Analysis for Informed Decisions

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Indicating a Sell signal at 15828.35.
• EMA 20: Signalling a Buy sentiment at 15745.81.
• EMA 50: Suggesting a Buy indication at 15620.51.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Reinforcing the Sell recommendation at 15846.26.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Buy sentiment at 15700.30.
• SMA 50: Affirming a Buy indication at 15641.23.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Signifying a Positive signal at 55.04.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Observed at 15880.38.
• Support: Identified at 15799.33.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 points towards a Buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favourable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 15939.03
• Take Profit: 16057.86
• Stop Loss: 15846.19

WTI CRUDE OIL – Capitalize on Market Trends with Expert Analysis

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Indicating a Buy signal at 80.922.
• EMA 20: Signalling a Buy sentiment at 79.45.
• EMA 50: Suggesting a Buy indication at 77.20.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Reinforcing the Buy recommendation at 80.91.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Buy sentiment at 79.52.
• SMA 50: Affirming a Buy indication at 76.96.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Signifying a Buy signal at 76.07.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Observed at 81.61.
• Support: Identified at 80.14.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of WTI Crude Oil points towards a Buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favourable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 82.76
• Take Profit: 85.89
• Stop Loss: 80.72

GOLD – Empowering Your Trades with Comprehensive Insights

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Indicating a Sell signal at 1958.96.
• EMA 20: Signalling a Sell sentiment at 1960.33.
• EMA 50: Suggesting a Buy indication at 1955.94.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Reinforcing the Sell recommendation at 1959.89.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Sell sentiment at 1960.91.
• SMA 50: Affirming a Sell indication at 1958.21.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Signifying a Positive signal at 48.31.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Negative stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Observed at 1967.04.
• Support: Identified at 1948.25.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of gold points towards a Sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favourable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1942.73
• Take Profit: 1928.69
• Stop Loss: 1954.32

ETHEREUM – Making Informed Decisions with Detailed Analysis

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: Indicating a Sell signal at 1882.06.
• EMA 20: Signalling a Sell sentiment at 1889.98.
• EMA 50: Suggesting a Sell indication at 1895.12.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: Reinforcing the Sell recommendation at 1882.82.
• SMA 20: Supporting a Sell sentiment at 1889.87.
• SMA 50: Affirming a Sell indication at 1901.43.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI: Signifying a Neutral signal at 45.89.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K value: Suggesting a Negative stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: Observed at 1878.32.
• Support: Identified at 1851.57.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of Ethereum points towards a Sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favourable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1832.12
• Take Profit: 1791.60
• Stop Loss: 1865.35

Conclusion

With an upward market trend and crucial data releases on the horizon, the global financial landscape is set for more excitement. As investors analyze central bank notes and economic indicators, volatility is expected to increase, presenting opportunities for informed decision-making. Stay tuned for further developments throughout the day!