US Markets Breathe Easier as Fed’s Inflation Index Meets Expectations.

In this market update, we’ll dive into the latest financial developments that have kept investors on their toes. From inflation indices to oil prices, we’ve got it all covered. Let’s break it down step by step.

The Fed’s Inflation Index: Meeting Expectations

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation index recently reported in line with expectations. This piece of news provided a temporary sigh of relief for US markets, setting the stage for heightened anticipation surrounding the impending release of today’s jobs data.

Nasdaq recorded a modest 0.11% increase, while S&P faced a minor setback, losing 0.16%. The Dow, on the other hand, fell by 0.48%. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield witnessed a decrease, currently hovering around 4.09%. This shift coincided with the dollar gaining momentum, marking a 1.7% monthly advance for the DXY.

The strengthening dollar cast its shadow over the gold market, causing prices to dip. In stark contrast, oil prices nearly doubled as Russia announced its commitment to continue output limits.

Another Big Day for US Data

Today promises to be a pivotal day for US data, with all eyes firmly fixed on the horizon. While the much-anticipated US jobs data takes center stage, several other data releases are slated to make their presence felt.

China delivered an impressive result today with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI figure, showing signs of robust growth. As the European session unfolds, investor attention will shift to Switzerland and the latest CPI data release.

The Non-Farm Employment Change, unemployment rate, and average hourly wages data are all scheduled to hit the headlines early in the day. A couple of hours later, the ISM Manufacturing PMI number will also join the fray. These releases, undoubtedly, carry the potential to sway the markets significantly.

What’s the US Session Unveiling?

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, often considered the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, reported a 3.3% increase in July on an annual basis. This figure was in perfect alignment with predictions, according to a report from the Commerce Department.

Shifting Focus to the Asia Session

Private polls have indicated that despite a decline in Asia’s manufacturing activity in August, fueled by rising input prices and sluggish global demand, China’s unexpected resurgence provided a glimmer of hope for the region’s export-dependent economy.

Swiss Franc (CHF): What’s Brewing?

Key news events concerning the Swiss Franc are relatively quiet today, with no major events on the horizon. However, it’s essential to keep an eye on the USD/CHF currency pair. While it fell as low as 0.8745 overnight in response to US economic data, it’s showing signs of rebounding this morning.

Retail sales in June grew by 1.8% YoY, marking the first annualized growth in nine months. July’s estimate suggests another annualized gain of 1.5%. A stronger-than-expected reading could potentially nudge this currency pair further down the road of depreciation.

Central Bank Notes

• The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has taken steps to tighten its monetary policy further, raising the SNB policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75%.
• Projections foresee average annual inflation at 2.2% for both 2023 and 2024, with 2.1% expected for 2025. Without the rate increase, these estimates would likely be even higher.
• The SNB predicts modest growth for the remainder of the year, attributed to subdued foreign demand, loss of purchasing power from inflation, and stricter financial conditions. GDP is expected to grow around 1.0% this year.
• The next SNB meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD): A Closer Look

In today’s spotlight, we have the Canadian Dollar (CAD), and it’s essential to understand what’s on the horizon for this currency. Let’s break down the key events and insights.

Key News Events Today

• GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
• GDP (MoM) (Jun)

What Can We Expect from CAD Today?

Canada’s second-quarter GDP report, set for release on Friday, is anticipated to show a notable slowdown in economic growth. According to a Reuters poll of economists, analysts are predicting a growth rate of 1.2%, a significant drop from the 3.1% recorded in the first three months of the year.

Central Bank Notes

• The Bank of Canada has already increased its target for the overnight rate to 4.75%.
• The first quarter of 2023 witnessed Canada’s economy outperforming expectations with GDP growth of 3.1%.
• While the Bank expects CPI inflation to ease to around 3.0% in the summer, concerns have grown regarding inflation remaining above the 2.0% target.
• The next Bank of Canada meeting is slated for September 6, 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil: A Glimpse into the Future

Today, let’s delve into the realm of oil and see what the future holds for this crucial commodity.

Key News Events Today

• China PMI

What Can We Expect from Oil Today?

Recent developments in the oil market have been nothing short of intriguing. With a significant drawdown of approximately 11.5 million barrels in API stockpiles, followed by an even more substantial 10.6 million barrel reduction in EIA oil inventories, oil prices have been on a rollercoaster ride. This recent drawdown far exceeded the predicted 2.2 million barrels.

Today, all eyes are on China’s PMI figures, especially those related to the manufacturing industry. Any increase in activity and new orders could act as a bullish stimulus for crude oil.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Global Markets: A Snapshot

Let’s take a quick glance at how global markets are performing across various regions.

Asian Stock Markets

• Nikkei: Up 0.47%
• Shanghai Composite: Up 0.23%
• Hang Seng: Down 0.55%
• ASX: Down 0.28%

European Equities

• DAX futures: Up 0.35%
• CAC 40: Down 0.65%
• FTSE: Down 0.46%

US Stock Market

• Dow Jones: Down 0.48%
• S&P 500: Down 0.16%
• Nasdaq 100: Up 0.11%

Commodities

• Gold: $1938.54 (-0.07%)
• Silver: $24.41 (+0.01%)
• Brent Oil: $87.06 (+0.26%)
• WTI Oil: $83.82 (+0.23%)

News & Data: What to Keep an Eye On

As we move forward, here are some key news and data releases to watch for:

• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug): Actual 51.0, Forecast 49.3, Previous 49.2 at 07:15 (CNY).
• German Manufacturing PMI (Aug): Forecast 39.1, Previous 38.8 at 13:25 (EUR).
• GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.8% at 18:00 (CAD).
• Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 18:00 (USD).
• Unemployment Rate (Aug): Forecast 3.5%, Previous 3.5% at 18:00 (USD).
• GDP (MoM) (Jun): Forecast -0.2%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00 (CAD).

Unveiling Forex Insights: GBPUSD Takes Center Stage

In the fast-paced world of foreign exchange, where every move counts, GBPUSD has grabbed the spotlight. Let’s dive into the intricacies of this currency pair and explore what the charts are telling us.

Deciphering Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Sell Sentiment Looms

The 5-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at 1.2676 for GBPUSD, hinting at a Sell sentiment that traders should be aware of.

EMA 20: A Ray of Hope with a Buy Indication

Contrasting the EMA 5, the 20-day EMA displays 1.2665, reinforcing a Buy indication. A potential market twist, perhaps?

EMA 50: A Sell Recommendation

With a value of 1.2689, the 50-day EMA aligns with a Sell recommendation. Caution might be the keyword here.

Simple Moving Average (SMA) 5: Echoing the Sell Sentiment

The 5-day SMA shows 1.2683, indicating a Sell sentiment in line with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: A Buy Stance Emerges

However, the 20-day SMA records 1.2644, supporting a Buy stance. This contrast keeps traders on their toes.

SMA 50: Confirming the Sell Indication

The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2685, signifying a Sell indication, in harmony with the EMA 50.

The Role of RSI

RSI: A Positive Signal Amidst the Mixed Bag

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 50.87, suggesting a Positive signal. Amidst the conflicting moving averages, this may offer a glimmer of hope for traders.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Perspective

Stochastic Oscillator: A Dash of Negativity

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative condition, further emphasizing the potential challenges in the GBPUSD market.

Identifying Key Levels

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2730, indicating a potential upper limit.
• Support: On the flip side, the support level is observed at 1.2641, providing a safety net for traders.

Summing It Up

A Sell Outlook

In summary, based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, carefully weighing the mixed signals provided by moving averages, RSI, and the Stochastic Oscillator.

Trade Suggestions

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those looking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 1.2614
• Take Profit: 1.2521
• Stop Loss: 1.2680

Now that we’ve explored the intricacies of GBPUSD, it’s time to turn our attention to another currency pair.

Analyzing EURUSD: Navigating the Forex Landscape

EURUSD is another player in the forex arena. Let’s dissect its technical analysis to uncover potential opportunities.

The Influence of Exponential Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Clear Sell Signal

The 5-day EMA stands at 1.0858, indicating a Sell signal that should not be ignored.

EMA 20: Echoing the Sell Sentiment

The 20-day EMA is at 1.0857, signaling a Sell sentiment, aligning with the EMA 5.

EMA 50: Consistency in Sell Indication

The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1.0882, suggesting a Sell indication, and maintaining the theme of selling pressure.

Insights from Simple Moving Averages

SMA 5: Supporting the Sell Recommendation

The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1.0865, reinforcing the Sell recommendation, in sync with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: A Buy Sentiment Emerges

With a value of 1.0841, the 20-day SMA supports a Buy sentiment, creating a contrast with the EMA 20.

SMA 50: Affirming a Buy Indication

The 50-day SMA registers at 1.0879, affirming a Buy indication, further emphasizing the mixed signals.

RSI’s Perspective

RSI: A Positive Signal Amidst Uncertainty

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 47.61, signifying a positive signal. In the midst of contradictory moving averages, this provides a glimmer of optimism.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Insights

Stochastic Oscillator: A Negative Stance

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative stance, adding to the ambiguity.

Critical Levels to Watch

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1.0906, marking a potential ceiling.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1.0829, serving as a potential floor.

Summarizing the Analysis

A Sell Sentiment Prevails

In summary, the technical analysis of EURUSD points towards a Sell sentiment. Traders should consider this alongside the mixed signals from moving averages, RSI, and the Stochastic Oscillator.

Trading Recommendations

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those seeking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 1.0808
• Take Profit: 1.0755
• Stop Loss: 1.0850

With EURUSD dissected, let’s shift our focus to yet another intriguing currency pair.

Navigating the Waves of AUDUSD: A Technical Analysis

AUDUSD enters the spotlight, and it’s time to explore its technical landscape.

Unpacking Exponential Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Sell Signal Beckons

The 5-day EMA stands at 0.6475, indicating a Sell signal that traders should be aware of.

EMA 20: A Buy Sentiment Prevails

Contrasting the EMA 5, the 20-day EMA is at 0.6459, signaling a Buy sentiment. Is a shift on the horizon?

EMA 50: Returning to a Sell Indication

The 50-day EMA currently sits at 0.6475, suggesting a Sell indication, creating a tug-of-war between buy and sell signals.

Insights from Simple Moving Averages

SMA 5: Aligning with the Sell Recommendation

The 5-day SMA shows a value of 0.6488, reinforcing the Sell recommendation, in harmony with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: Supporting a Buy Sentiment

With a value of 0.6451, the 20-day SMA also supports a Buy sentiment, adding to the market complexity.

SMA 50: Affirming a Buy Indication

The 50-day SMA registers at 0.6455, affirming a Buy indication, continuing the mixed signals trend.

RSI’s Perspective

RSI: A Positive Signal Amidst the Dilemma

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 52.54, signifying a Positive signal. Amidst the mixed moving averages, this adds a layer of positivity.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Insights

Stochastic Oscillator: A Negative Stance Persists

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative stance, contributing to the ongoing ambiguity.

Critical Levels to Monitor

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 0.6517, indicating a potential ceiling.
• Support: The support level is identified at 0.6449, serving as a potential floor.

Summarizing the Analysis

A Sell Sentiment Prevails

In summary, the technical analysis of AUDUSD points towards a Sell sentiment. Traders should approach this market with caution, considering the mixed signals.

Trading Recommendations

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those looking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 0.6432
• Take Profit: 0.6360
• Stop Loss: 0.6484

With AUDUSD analyzed, let’s explore the landscape of another currency pair.

Navigating USDJPY: Deciphering the Forex Puzzle

USDJPY is a prominent player in the forex arena. Let’s delve into its technical analysis to gain insights into potential trading opportunities.

Demystifying Exponential Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Sell Signal Dominates

The 5-day EMA stands at 145.62, indicating a Sell signal, and setting a tone of caution for traders.

EMA 20: Echoing the Sell Sentiment

The 20-day EMA is at 145.87, signaling a Sell sentiment, in line with the EMA 5.

EMA 50: A Buy Indication Emerges

Contrastingly, the 50-day EMA currently sits at 143.30, suggesting a Buy indication, introducing an element of surprise.

Insights from Simple Moving Averages

SMA 5: Confirming the Sell Recommendation

The 5-day SMA shows a value of 145.62, reinforcing the Sell recommendation, in harmony with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: Supporting the Sell Sentiment

With a value of 146.02, the 20-day SMA also supports a Sell sentiment, aligning with the EMA 20.

SMA 50: Affirming a Sell Indication

The 50-day SMA registers at 145.65, affirming a Sell indication, and maintaining the theme of caution.

RSI’s Perspective

RSI: A Neutral Signal in the Mix

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 44.99, signifying a Neutral signal amidst the mixed moving averages.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Insights

Stochastic Oscillator: A Negative Stance Persists

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative stance, contributing to the market’s uncertainty.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 145.90, marking a potential upper limit.
• Support: The support level is identified at 145.09, providing a potential safety net.

Summarizing the Analysis

A Sell Sentiment Dominates

In summary, the technical analysis of USDJPY points towards a Sell sentiment. Traders should approach this market with caution, considering the mixed signals.

Trading Recommendations

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those seeking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 144.73
• Take Profit: 143.85
• Stop Loss: 145.39

Now that we’ve explored the intricacies of USDJPY, let’s set our sights on the Hang Seng Index.

Unraveling the Hang Seng: A Technical Analysis

The Hang Seng Index presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities. Let’s dissect its technical landscape.

Decoding Exponential Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Sell Signal Takes Center Stage

The 5-day EMA stands at 18407.88, indicating a Sell signal that commands attention.

EMA 20: A Buy Sentiment Emerges

In contrast, the 20-day EMA is at 18293.33, signaling a Buy sentiment, and setting the stage for a potential market twist.

EMA 50: Returning to a Sell Indication

The 50-day EMA currently sits at 18393.11, suggesting a Sell indication, creating a dynamic market scenario.

Insights from Simple Moving Averages

SMA 5: Reinforcing the Sell Recommendation

The 5-day SMA shows a value of 18341.4, reinforcing the Sell recommendation, and aligning with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: Supporting the Buy Sentiment

With a value of 18235.21, the 20-day SMA supports a Buy sentiment, adding a layer of complexity.

SMA 50: Affirming a Buy Indication

The 50-day SMA registers at 18283.92, affirming a Buy indication, creating a market of mixed signals.

RSI’s Perspective

RSI: A Positive Signal Amidst the Contradictions

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 52.03, signifying a positive signal. In the midst of mixed moving averages, this adds a glimmer of optimism.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Insights

Stochastic Oscillator: A Negative Stance Persists

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative stance, contributing to the market’s uncertainty.

Key Levels to Observe

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 18627, indicating a potential upper limit.
• Support: The support level is identified at 18254, providing a potential safety net.

Summarizing the Analysis

A Sell Sentiment Prevails

In summary, the technical analysis of the Hang Seng Index points towards a Sell sentiment. Traders should navigate this market with caution, considering the mixed signals from moving averages.

Trading Recommendations

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those looking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 18147
• Take Profit: 17801
• Stop Loss: 18414

With the Hang Seng Index analyzed, let’s turn our attention to the world of commodities, starting with Brent Crude Oil.

Brent Crude Oil: Riding the Waves of the Commodity Market

Brent Crude Oil is a significant player in the commodities market. Let’s delve into its technical analysis to uncover potential trading opportunities.

Unpacking Exponential Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Buy Signal Illuminates the Path

The 5-day EMA stands at 86.49, indicating a Buy signal, and setting a positive tone for oil enthusiasts.

EMA 20: Echoing the Buy Sentiment

The 20-day EMA is at 85.09, signaling a Buy sentiment, in harmony with the EMA 5.

EMA 50: Confirming the Buy Indication

The 50-day EMA currently sits at 84.47, suggesting a Buy indication, aligning with the overall positive sentiment.

Insights from Simple Moving Averages

SMA 5: Reinforcing the Buy Recommendation

The 5-day SMA shows a value of 86.39, reinforcing the Buy recommendation, in sync with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: Supporting the Buy Sentiment

With a value of 84.53, the 20-day SMA also supports a Buy sentiment, adding confidence to the bullish outlook.

SMA 50: Affirming the Buy Indication

The 50-day SMA registers at 84.59, affirming a Buy indication, and creating a consistent bullish narrative.

RSI’s Perspective

RSI: A Positive Signal in the Mix

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 74.28, signifying a Positive signal, and further solidifying the bullish outlook.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Insights

Stochastic Oscillator: A Neutral Stance

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral stance, adding a touch of caution to the otherwise bullish sentiment.

Key Levels to Monitor

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 87.66, marking a potential upper limit.
• Support: The support level is identified at 86.46, providing a potential safety net.

Summarizing the Analysis

A Buy Sentiment Dominates

In summary, the technical analysis of Brent Crude Oil points towards a Buy sentiment. Traders should consider this alongside the positive signals from moving averages, RSI, and the Stochastic Oscillator.

Trading Recommendations

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those seeking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 88.20
• Take Profit: 90.30
• Stop Loss: 86.63

With Brent Crude Oil analyzed, let’s shift our focus to the realm of precious metals, starting with Gold.

Gold: Navigating the Precious Metals Market

Gold has always been a sought-after asset. Let’s delve into its technical analysis to uncover potential trading opportunities.

Deciphering Exponential Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Buy Signal Shines Bright

The 5-day EMA stands at 1941.65, indicating a Buy signal that sparkles with potential.

EMA 20: Echoing the Buy Sentiment

The 20-day EMA is at 1930.00, signaling a Buy sentiment, aligning with the EMA 5.

EMA 50: Confirming the Buy Indication

The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1922.34, suggesting a Buy indication, and creating a bullish atmosphere.

Insights from Simple Moving Averages

SMA 5: Reinforcing the Buy Recommendation

The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1942.88, reinforcing the Buy recommendation, in sync with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: Supporting the Buy Sentiment

With a value of 1927.80, the 20-day SMA also supports a Buy sentiment, strengthening the bullish outlook.

SMA 50: Affirming the Buy Indication

The 50-day SMA registers at 1911.966, affirming a Buy indication, creating a consistent bullish narrative.

RSI’s Perspective

RSI: A Positive Signal in the Mix

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 67.18, signifying a Positive signal, and further solidifying the bullish outlook.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Insights

Stochastic Oscillator: A Negative Stance

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative stance, adding a touch of caution to the overall bullish sentiment.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1945.36, marking a potential upper limit.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1934.39, providing a potential safety net.

Summarizing the Analysis

A Buy Sentiment Dominates

In summary, the technical analysis of Gold points towards a Buy sentiment. Traders should consider this alongside the positive signals from moving averages, RSI, and the Stochastic Oscillator.

Trading Recommendations

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those looking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 1948.70
• Take Profit: 1965.40
• Stop Loss: 1936.77

With Gold analyzed, let’s venture into the realm of cryptocurrencies, starting with Ethereum.

Ethereum: Navigating the Crypto Waters

Ethereum is a significant player in the cryptocurrency market. Let’s delve into its technical analysis to uncover potential trading opportunities.

Decrypting Exponential Moving Averages

EMA 5: A Sell Signal Casts a Shadow

The 5-day EMA stands at 1659.65, indicating a Sell signal that warrants attention.

EMA 20: Echoing the Sell Sentiment

The 20-day EMA is at 1668.40, signaling a Sell sentiment, aligning with the EMA 5.

EMA 50: Confirming the Sell Indication

The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1693.08, suggesting a Sell indication, creating a bearish tone.

Insights from Simple Moving Averages

SMA 5: Reinforcing the Sell Recommendation

The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1666.23, reinforcing the Sell recommendation, in sync with the EMA 5.

SMA 20: Supporting the Sell Sentiment

With a value of 1663.63, the 20-day SMA also supports a Sell sentiment, strengthening the bearish outlook.

SMA 50: Affirming the Sell Indication

The 50-day SMA registers at 1676.07, affirming a Sell indication, and maintaining the bearish narrative.

RSI’s Perspective

RSI: A Negative Signal in the Mix

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 39.99, signifying a Negative signal amidst the bearish moving averages.

Stochastic Oscillator’s Insights

Stochastic Oscillator: A Negative Stance Persists

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative stance, adding to the bearish sentiment.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1693.97, marking a potential upper limit.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1619.73, providing a potential safety net.

Summarizing the Analysis

A Sell Sentiment Dominates

In summary, the technical analysis of Ethereum points towards a Sell sentiment. Traders should approach this cryptocurrency with caution, considering the bearish signals from moving averages, RSI, and the Stochastic Oscillator.

Trading Recommendations

Entry, Take Profit, and Stop Loss

For those seeking to take action, here are the trade suggestions:

• Entry Point: 1613.17
• Take Profit: 1530.72
• Stop Loss: 1679.12

With Ethereum analyzed, let’s explore the crypto world further, starting with Bitcoin.