Wall St Ends Slightly Higher in Shortened Session, Tesla Jumps

Introduction

In the second half of the year, Wall Street’s major indexes wrapped up the holiday-shortened session on Monday with modest gains. The market was boosted by a spike in Tesla’s stock price and the strength of bank shares. This article provides a comprehensive update on the recent happenings in the US session, the impact on the Asian session, and key news events for the Dollar Index (DXY), Euro (EUR), and Gold (XAU).

What Happened in the US Session?

On July 4th, in observance of Independence Day, the US markets were closed. Consequently, trading activity was lower than usual when they fully reopened. The dollar index (DXY) fluctuated between 102.90 and 103.10 throughout the day, reflecting the subdued nature of the session.

What Does It Mean for the Asia Session?

During the Asia session, market attention will be focused on two key data releases: the retail sales data from Australia and the Caixin Services PMI report from China. As no significant news or economic events occurred overnight, these reports are expected to provide insights into the economic activities of both countries. While Australian sales data has been relatively quiet, Chinese services data should indicate continued economic growth.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key News Events Today

1. FOMC Meeting Minutes
2. FOMC Member Williams Speaks (8:00 pm GMT)

What Can We Expect from DXY Today?

With the complete reopening of the US stock markets, investors will closely watch the release of the most recent FOMC meeting minutes. Additionally, FOMC member John Williams is scheduled to participate in a fireside discussion on “Monetary Policy: Lessons and Challenges” at the Central Bank Research Association’s annual meeting in New York. The following key points from the central bank are worth noting:

• The federal funds rate target range will be 5 to 5-1/4 percent.
• The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% target.
• The Committee will adjust monetary policy if risks emerge that could hinder achieving its goals.
• Various factors will be considered, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, inflation expectations, and international and financial developments.
• The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 26, 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias: Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key News Events Today

1. Services PMI
2. PPI

What Can We Expect from EUR Today?

Since the beginning of the year, the Eurozone’s services sector has been a driving force behind overall economic development. The most recent reading suggests that the sector continues to grow, although at a slower pace compared to the previous month. On the other hand, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been declining rapidly due to the prolonged downturn in the European manufacturing sector. This reduction in manufacturing activity contributes to lower inflationary pressures in the European Union.

Next 24 Hours Bias: Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key News Events Today

1. FOMC Meeting Minutes
2. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

What Can We Expect from Gold Today?

Gold encountered resistance around the $1,930 per ounce level as demand for the US dollar increased during the Asia session. Consequently, gold prices might decline further towards $1,910 per ounce. Market participants will closely monitor the release of the most recent FOMC meeting minutes and FOMC member John Williams’ participation in the fireside chat titled “Monetary Policy: Lessons and Challenges.” These events are expected to have a significant impact on gold prices during the US session.

Next 24 Hours Bias: Weak Bearish

Global Markets

Asian Stock Markets

• Nikkei: -0.25%
• Shanghai Composite: -0.55%
• Hang Seng: -1.46%
• ASX: -0.35%

European Equities

• DAX futures: -0.26%
• CAC 40: -0.23%
• FTSE: -0.10%

US Stock Market

• Dow Jones: +0.03%
• S&P 500: +0.12%
• Nasdaq 100: +0.21%

Commodities

• Gold: $1,924.57 (-0.04%)
• Silver: $22.91 (-0.06%)
• Brent Oil: $75.89 (-0.47%)
• WTI Oil: $70.89 (+1.69%)

News & Data

1. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM):
   • Actual: 0.7%
   • Forecast: 0.7%
   • Previous: 0.0%
   • Time: 07:00
2. (GBP) Composite PMI (Jun):
   • Forecast: 52.8
   • Previous: 54.0
   • Time: 14:00
3. (GBP) Service PMI (Jun):
   • Forecast: 53.7
   • Previous: 55.2
   • Time: 14:00
4. (EUR) Service PMI (Jun):
   • Forecast: 52.4
   • Previous: 55.1
   • Time: 13:30
5. (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes:
   • Time: 23:30

GBPUSD: Bearish Momentum Signals Downward Trend in Market

Introduction

In the GBP/USD chart, there is a prevailing bearish momentum, indicating a downward trend in the market. This article will analyze the key levels and potential trade suggestions for GBP/USD.

Bearish Continuation: Targets and Retracements

Initial Support Level at 1.2700

The price is currently above a significant ascending trend line, suggesting a potential for further bullish momentum. However, the initial support level at 1.2700, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, is a potential target for a bearish continuation.

Second Support Level at 1.2686

Another overlap support, the second support level at 1.2686, aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, reinforcing its significance as a potential target for bearish continuation.

Upside Potential: Resistance Levels and Retracements

First Resistance Level at 1.2713

On the upside, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement influences the first resistance level at 1.2713, which acts as a multi-swing high resistance.

Second Resistance Level at 1.2728

The second resistance level at 1.2728, overlapping with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, carries weight and adds to the potential resistance.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

For traders considering this analysis, a potential trade suggestion is to sell at 1.2702, with a take profit (TP) set at 1.2690 and a stop loss (SL) at 1.2711.

EURUSD: Bearish Momentum Indicates Lower Market Trend

Introduction

The EUR/USD chart displays a bearish momentum, signaling a lower market trend. This section will delve into the support and resistance levels, as well as provide a trade suggestion for EUR/USD.

Bearish Continuation: Support Levels and Retracements

First Support Level at 1.0885

A conceivable bearish continuation targets the first support level at 1.0885, characterized as overlap support.

Second Support Level at 1.0868

The second support level at 1.0868 coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement and another overlap support, reinforcing its importance.

Upside Potential: Resistance Levels and Retracements

First Resistance Level at 1.0893

On the upside, the first resistance level at 1.0893 presents a multi-swing high barrier.

Second Resistance Level at 1.0916

The second resistance level at 1.0916 is a swing-high resistance, also aligning with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

Asymmetrical Triangle Pattern: Breakout Signals

Asymmetrical Triangle Pattern

The presence of an asymmetrical triangle chart pattern suggests a period of consolidation. A breakout above the top trend line signifies a bullish breakout, while a breakdown below the lower trend line indicates a bearish breakdown.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

Traders looking to act on this analysis might consider selling at 1.0893, with a take profit (TP) set at 1.0874 and a stop loss (SL) at 1.0907.

AUDUSD: Bearish Momentum Strengthens, Targets Support Levels

Introduction

The AUD/USD chart currently exhibits a bearish momentum, indicating a potential continuation in the downward direction. This section will explore the support and resistance levels for AUD/USD.

Bearish Continuation: Support Levels and Fibonacci Retracements

First Support Level at 0.6639

The possibility of a bearish continuation is strengthened by the presence of the first support level at 0.6639. This level is considered favorable due to its overlap support and alignment with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.

Second Support Level at 0.6597

The second support level at 0.6597, which coincides with a swing low support, adds to its significance as a target for bearish continuation.

Upside Potential: Resistance Levels and Fibonacci Retracements

First Resistance Level at 0.6717

On the upside, the first resistance level at 0.6717 is an important barrier. This level aligns with an overlap resistance and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.

Second Resistance Level at 0.6799

The second resistance level at 0.6799 holds significance as it coincides with a resistance overlap and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

Traders considering this analysis might find a potential trade suggestion to sell at 0.6671, with a take profit (TP) set at 0.6655 and a stop loss (SL) at 0.6686.

USDJPY: Weak Bullish Momentum Indicates Market Uncertainty

Introduction

The USD/JPY chart currently displays a weak bullish momentum and low confidence, indicating market uncertainty. This section will analyze the support and resistance levels for USD/JPY.

Weak Bullish Momentum: Support and Resistance Levels

First Support Level at 144.35

The first support level at 144.35 serves as pullback support and may witness a positive bounce, potentially pushing the price toward the first resistance level.

First Resistance Level at 144.51

The first resistance level at 144.51 is designated as overlap resistance, providing additional strength to potential upward movement.

Second Support and Resistance Levels

The second support level at 144.17 and the second resistance level at 144.71 align with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, further reinforcing their significance.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

For traders interested in acting on this analysis, a potential trade suggestion is to sell at 144.33, with a take profit (TP) set at 144.19 and a stop loss (SL) at 144.44.

DOW JONES: Neutral Momentum Indicates Lack of Direction

Introduction

The DJ30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) chart currently displays neutral momentum, suggesting a lack of discernible direction in the market. This section will examine the support and resistance levels for Dow Jones.

Neutral Momentum: Support and Resistance Levels

First Support Level at 34546.57

The first support level at 34546.57 represents a potential price range and is reinforced by the presence of the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

Second Support Level at 34254.29

Acting as an overlap support, the second support level at 34254.29 also displays Fibonacci confluence, thanks to the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.

First Resistance Level at 34790.13

The first resistance level at 34790.13 acts as a multi-swing high barrier and adds to the potential price range on the upward movement.

Second Resistance Level at 35147.35

The second resistance level at 35147.35 demonstrates Fibonacci confluence, as it coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection and the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

For traders interested in this analysis, a potential trade suggestion is to buy at 34405.09, with a take profit (TP) set at 34488.70 and a stop loss (SL) at 34342.38.

WTI CRUDE OIL: Tentative Upward Momentum in Focus

Introduction

The WTI/USD instrument currently exhibits a tentative upward momentum. This section will explore the support and resistance levels for WTI Crude Oil.

Tentative Upward Momentum: Support and Resistance Levels

Heading 26: First Support Level at 69.64

The first support level at 69.64 is regarded as good due to its overlap support, providing a potential target for bullish continuation.

Second Support Level at 67.22

The second support level at 67.22 aligns with a swing low support and the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, further strengthening its significance.

First Resistance Level at 71.67

On the upside, the first resistance level at 71.67 is notable as it coincides with a swing-high resistance.

Second Resistance Level at 74.08

The second resistance level at 74.08 aligns with an overlap resistance, contributing to its importance as a potential barrier.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

For traders considering this analysis, a potential trade suggestion is to buy at 70.64, with a take profit (TP) set at 71.02 and a stop loss (SL) at 70.35.

GOLD: Negative Momentum Signals Potential Price Declines

Introduction

The XAU/USD chart indicates negative momentum, suggesting potential price declines in the gold market. This section will analyze the support and resistance levels for gold.

Negative Momentum: Support and Resistance Levels

First Support Level at 1891.16

A bearish continuation towards the first support level at 1891.16 is conceivable, as it is referred to as an overlap support.

Second Support Level at 1857.33

The second support level at 1857.33 also serves as overlap support, contributing to its significance as a potential target for bearish continuation.

First Resistance Level at 1920.58

On the upswing, the initial resistance level at 1920.58, containing the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, acts as an overlap resistance.

Second Resistance Level at 1958.82

The second resistance level at 1958.82 is a swing-high resistance and coincides with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, further highlighting its importance.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

For traders interested in acting on this analysis, a potential trade suggestion is to buy at 1928.62, with a take profit (TP) set at 1911.94 and a stop loss (SL) at 1939.41.

LITECOIN: Negative Momentum Suggests Potential Downtrend

Introduction

The LTC/USD chart currently displays negative momentum, indicating a potential downtrend in the Litecoin market. This section will explore the support and resistance levels for Litecoin.

Negative Momentum: Support and Resistance Levels

First Support Level at 111.84

The first support level at 111.84 is significant due to its overlap support and a potential target for bearish continuation.

Second Support Level at 106.19

The second support level at 106.19, aligning with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, reinforces its importance as a potential target for bearish continuation.

First Resistance Level at 118.01

On the upside, the first resistance level at 118.01 is notable as it coincides with a swing-high resistance.

Second Resistance Level at 123.28

The second resistance level at 123.28, overlapping with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, carries weight and adds to the potential resistance.

Trade Suggestion

Trade Suggestion

Traders considering this analysis might find a potential trade suggestion to sell at 114.87, with a take profit (TP) set at 112.04 and a stop loss (SL) at 116.17.

Conclusion

Wall Street ended the shortened session with modest gains, driven by Tesla’s remarkable performance and the strength of bank shares. As the US markets reopen fully, investors will closely watch the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and the subsequent discussion by FOMC member John Williams. The Asian session will focus on retail sales data from Australia and the Caixin Services PMI report from China. Additionally, gold prices are likely to be influenced by the events unfolding during the US session. Overall, market participants anticipate continued volatility as they navigate the evolving global economic landscape.

frequently asked questions (FAQs)

Q1: What were the major factors contributing to Wall Street’s modest gains in the shortened session?

A1: Wall Street saw modest gains in the shortened session due to the spike in Tesla’s stock price and the strength of bank shares.

Q2: Why did Tesla’s stock price increase during this period?

A2: Tesla reported delivering a record number of vehicles in the second quarter, which contributed to the increase in its stock price.

Q3: Which major banks experienced a rise in their shares?

A3: Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Citigroup both saw increases in their shares by 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, while the S&P 500 banking index gained 1.5% overall.

Q4: Why was trading activity lower than usual during the US session?

A4: Trading activity was lower due to the closure of the US markets on July 4th for Independence Day.

Q5: What can we expect from the Dollar Index (DXY) today?

A5: Today, all eyes will be on the release of the most recent FOMC meeting minutes, followed by a fireside discussion by FOMC member John Williams. These events will likely have an impact on the Dollar Index (DXY).