Wall Street Experiences Slight Loss After Fed Minutes

Introduction

In the wake of the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s minutes from its most recent meeting and in anticipation of crucial economic data, Wall Street’s major indexes closed with minor declines on Wednesday. Investors closely analyzed the minutes, which revealed that the unified Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being in order to assess the need for future rate hikes. Despite the release of the anticipated minutes, investors still expect a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, scheduled later this month. Key economic data, including the monthly U.S. jobs report, is set to be released before the meeting.

Fed Minutes Highlight United Front

The minutes of the June meeting underscored the unity within the Federal Reserve as it decided to maintain the current interest rates. This decision aimed to provide the central bank with more time to evaluate the necessity of future rate hikes. The Fed’s cohesive stance reflected a cautious approach to ensure a comprehensive assessment of the economic landscape before taking any further actions.

Economic Data: U.S. Orders and China’s Services Activity

Data released on Wednesday revealed that new orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased less than anticipated in May. This news raised concerns about a potential downturn in the economy. In addition, a private-sector poll indicated that China’s services activity experienced the weakest growth rate in the past five months during June. These developments further contributed to the cautious sentiment in the market.

What Happened in the Asia Session?

Australia’s Trade Balance Surges

Australia recorded a trade surplus of $11.79 billion in May, surpassing expectations with a $1.34 billion increase. This positive outcome provided a boost to the Australian dollar after it had dropped following the June FOMC meeting and the release of hawkish minutes. Although the Australian dollar still faces some overhead pressure, it is currently showing upward movement.

What Does It Mean for the Europe & US Session?

Dollar Index Pulls Back

The dollar index (DXY) exhibited strength during the Asia session, but it experienced a pullback, hovering around 103.20 as the Europe session commenced. Today, dollar strength is expected to persist as investors and traders analyze the most recent FOMC minutes and its implications for the future.

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key News Events Today

Trade Balance

Australia’s trade balance data for May showed a surplus of $11.79 billion, surpassing expectations with a $1.34 billion increase. This positive news had a significant impact on the Australian dollar, which had initially dropped due to the hawkish tone of the June FOMC minutes. However, the currency has since regained momentum and is currently moving upward.

Central Bank Notes

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%. Inflation in Australia remains high at 7%, albeit past its peak, and needs to return to the target range. The RBA indicated the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy in the future. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for July 4, 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key News Events Today

ADP Non-farm Employment Report

Unemployment Claims

JOLTS Job Openings

ISM Services PMI

Today, a flurry of information regarding the labor market will be released, including the ADP Non-farm Employment Report, Unemployment Claims, JOLTs Job Openings, and ISM Services PMI. These data points will provide further insights into the pace of expansion in the services sector and the inflationary pressures it may cause. In the afternoon, weaker labor market data, increased jobless claims, slower growth in service-related activity, and higher unemployment claims could potentially lead to a sell-off of the US dollar.

Central Bank Notes

The Federal Reserve has set the federal funds rate target range at 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% target and will adjust monetary policy if any risks arise that could impede achieving its goals. Various factors, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, inflation expectations, and international and financial developments, will be considered. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for July 26, 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key News Events Today

Construction PMI

The construction sector in the UK is expected to continue expanding in May, albeit at a slower rate compared to previous months. Cable, which refers to the GBP/USD currency pair, initially fell below 1.2700 due to the hawkish FOMC minutes but has since risen as the Asian markets opened.

Central Bank Notes

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently voted to increase the Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 5%. However, two members preferred to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.5%. CPI inflation is expected to decrease significantly due to developments in energy prices. The updated projections indicate that CPI inflation is expected to slightly decline above 1% at the two- and three-year horizons, which is below the 2% target. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for August 3, 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Global Markets

Asian Stock Markets

The Nikkei experienced a decline of 1.70%, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indexes dropped by 0.54% and 2.88%, respectively. The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) also saw a decline of 1.24%.

European Equities

In Europe, the DAX futures recorded a decline of 0.72%, the CAC 40 dropped by 1.38%, and the FTSE experienced a decline of 0.75%.

US Stock Market

The Dow Jones index closed with a decline of 0.38%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 experienced a decline of 0.18%.

Commodities

The price of gold stood at $1919.28, reflecting a slight increase of 0.25%. Silver also experienced a slight increase of 0.38%, reaching $23.20. However, Brent Oil declined by 0.39% to $76.35, and WTI Oil experienced a minor decline of 0.17%, reaching $71.69.

News & Data

• The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June is forecasted at 228K, with the previous figure at 278K, to be released at 17:45 (USD).
• The Initial Jobless Claims forecast for the current week is 245K, with the previous figure at 239K, to be released at 18:00 (USD).
• The Service PMI for June is forecasted at 54.1, with the previous figure at 54.9, to be released at 19:15 (USD).
• The Ivey PMI for June has the previous figure at 53.5, to be released at 19:30 (CAD).
• The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June is forecasted at 51.0, with the previous figure at 50.3, to be released at 19:30 (USD).
• The JOLTs Job Openings for May is forecasted at 9.935M, with the previous figure at 10.103M, to be released at 19:30 (USD).

GBPUSD: Bearish Momentum Persists Above Ascending Trend Line

Introduction

In the world of forex trading, the GBP/USD currency pair has been experiencing some interesting developments. Despite the presence of a significant ascending trend line that typically indicates the potential for positive momentum, the current chart analysis suggests a bearish trend. This article delves into the key support and resistance levels for GBP/USD and provides a trade suggestion for traders to consider.

Bearish Momentum on GBP/USD Chart

Support Levels Indicate Bearish Continuation

1. First Support Level: 1.2712
   • Overlap support
   • Coincides with 50% Fibonacci Retracement
   • Potential target for bearish continuation
2. Second Support Level: 1.2688
   • Coincides with 50% Fibonacci Retracement
   • Overlap support

Resistance Levels Highlight Bearish Pressure

1. First Resistance Level: 1.2730
   • Multi-swing high resistance
   • Fibonacci confluence from 50% Fibonacci Retracement
   • Located on the upward trend
2. Second Resistance Level: 1.2756
   • Swing high resistance
   • Coincides with 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement

Trade Suggestion for GBP/USD

Based on the chart analysis, a trade suggestion is as follows:

• SELL at 1.2713
• Take Profit (TP) at 1.2688
• Stop Loss (SL) at 1.2735

By carefully considering these levels, traders can make informed decisions and potentially benefit from the ongoing bearish momentum on the GBP/USD chart.

EURUSD: Negative Momentum Indicates Potential Decline

Introduction

The EUR/USD currency pair has recently witnessed a break below an ascending support line, indicating a negative momentum. This article explores the current chart analysis, identifies essential support and resistance levels, and offers a trade suggestion for traders to consider.

Negative Momentum on EUR/USD Chart

Short-term Possibility of Price Increase

1. First Support Level: 1.0860
   • Overlap support
   • A potential barrier for the price increase
2. Second Support Level: 1.0836
   • Coincides with 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement
   • Overlap support

Obstacles to Upswing

1. First Resistance Level: 1.0875
   • Multi-swing high resistance
2. Second Resistance Level: 1.0900
   • Coincides with 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement
   • Swing high resistance

Trade Suggestion for EUR/USD

Based on the chart analysis, a trade suggestion is as follows:

• SELL at 1.0861
• Take Profit (TP) at 1.0840
• Stop Loss (SL) at 1.0881

By considering these levels, traders can potentially capitalize on the current negative momentum of the EUR/USD currency pair.

AUDUSD: Bullish Trend Signals Upward Movement

Introduction

The AUD/USD currency pair has been displaying a bullish trend, indicating the potential for an upward surge in the market. This article examines the current chart analysis, identifies significant support and resistance levels, and provides a trade suggestion for traders to consider.

Bullish Trend on AUD/USD Chart

Support Levels for Potential Bounce

1. FirstSupport Level: 0.6639
   • Overlap support
   • Coincides with 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement
   • Potential for a bullish bounce
2. Second Support Level: 0.6597
   • Swing low support

Resistance Levels Highlight Potential Upside

1. First Resistance Level: 0.6717
   • Overlap resistance
   • Recognized with 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement
2. Second Resistance Level: 0.6799
   • Multi-swing high resistance
   • Coincides with 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement

Trade Suggestion for AUD/USD

Based on the chart analysis, a trade suggestion is as follows:

• BUY at 0.6670
• Take Profit (TP) at 0.6696
• Stop Loss (SL) at 0.6651

By considering these levels, traders can potentially benefit from the current bullish trend on the AUD/USD chart.

USDJPY: Neutral Momentum with Potential Price Variation

Introduction

The USD/JPY currency pair is currently experiencing a lack of discernible market direction, as indicated by the neutral momentum on the chart. This article explores the key support and resistance levels, shedding light on potential price variations that traders should be aware of.

Neutral Momentum on USD/JPY Chart

Potential Price Variation Between Support and Resistance

1. First Support Level: 142.30
   • Pullback support
   • 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement
2. First Resistance Level: 145.10
   • Overlap resistance
   • 50% Fibonacci Retracement
3. Second Support Level: 138.08
   • 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement
4. Second Resistance Level: 146.67
   • 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement

Trade Suggestion for USD/JPY

Based on the chart analysis, traders should consider the following trade suggestion:

• BUY at 144.01
• Take Profit (TP) at 144.32
• Stop Loss (SL) at 143.74

By carefully monitoring the support and resistance levels, traders can navigate the potential price variations on the USD/JPY chart.

S&P 500: Ascending Trend Line Indicates Upward Growth

Introduction

The US500 (S&P 500) index has been displaying an interesting price movement, with the current chart analysis suggesting the possibility of additional upward growth. This article highlights the key support and resistance levels, providing traders with valuable insights and a trade suggestion to consider.

Ascending Trend Line on S&P 500 Chart

Support and Resistance Levels

1. First Support Level: 4432.1
   • Significant retreat support
   • Potential for a bullish bounce
2. First Resistance Level: 4481.1
   • Remarkable for its 127.20% Fibonacci Extension
   • A potential obstacle to upward movement
3. Second Resistance Level: 4515.5
   • Swing high resistance
   • 161.80% Fibonacci Extension
4. Second Support Level: 4386.2
   • Overlap support

Trade Suggestion for S&P 500

Based on the chart analysis, a trade suggestion is as follows:

• BUY at 4447.17
• Take Profit (TP) at 4469.69
• Stop Loss (SL) at 4429.28

By considering these levels, traders can potentially benefit from the upward growth indicated by the ascending trend line on the S&P 500 chart.

BRENT CRUDE OIL: Bullish Momentum Suggests Further Upside

Introduction

The Brent Crude Oil chart currently reflects a bullish momentum, indicating the possibility of continued upward movement in the market. This article analyzes the chart and identifies essential support and resistance levels, providing traders with valuable insights and a trade suggestion.

Bullish Momentum on Brent Crude Oil Chart

Resistance Levels for Potential Upside

1. First Resistance Level: 76.76
   • Multi-swing high resistance
   • Coincides with 61.80% Fibonacci projection
2. Second Resistance Level: 79.38
   • Overlap resistance
   • Coincides with 100% Fibonacci projection

Support Levels Offering Downside Protection

1. First Support Level: 75.05
   • Pullback support
2. Second Support Level: 73.09
   • Overlap support
   • Coincides with 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement

Trade Suggestion for Brent Crude Oil

Based on the chart analysis, a trade suggestion is as follows:

• BUY at 76.90
• Take Profit (TP) at 77.78
• Stop Loss (SL) at 76.31

By considering these levels, traders can potentially benefit from the current bullish momentum on the Brent Crude Oil chart.

SILVER: Bullish Momentum Signals Likely Upside

Introduction

The silver chart is currently indicating a bullish momentum, suggesting the possibility of an upward movement in the market. This article analyzes the chart, identifies crucial support and resistance levels, and provides a trade suggestion for traders to consider.

Bullish Momentum on Silver Chart

Upside Potential with Resistance Levels

1. First Resistance Level: 23.11
   • Overlap resistance
   • Coincides with 50% Fibonacci Retracement
2. Second Resistance Level: 24.01
   • Swing high resistance
   • 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement

Support Levels for Potential Reversal

1. First Support Level: 22.49
   • Overlap support
2. Second Support Level: 21.85
   • Overlap support

Trade Suggestion for Silver

Based on the chart analysis, a trade suggestion is as follows:

• BUY at 23.16
• Take Profit (TP) at 23.30
• Stop Loss (SL) at 23.05

By considering these levels, traders can potentially capitalize on the bullish momentum indicated by the silver chart.

ETHEREUM: Bullish Momentum Presents Trading Opportunities

Introduction

The ETH/USD instrument currently reflects a bullish momentum, providing trading opportunities for investors. This article delves into the chart analysis, identifies significant support and resistance levels, and offers a trade suggestion for traders to consider.

Bullish Momentum on Ethereum Chart

Strong Support Levels for Potential Reversal

1. First Support Level: 1895.30
   • Overlap support
   • 50% Fibonacci Retracement
   • 61.80% Fibonacci Projection
   • Fibonacci confluence
2. Second Support Level: 1833.65
   • Multi-swing low support

Key Resistance Levels to Watch

1. First Resistance Level: 1931.27
   • Multi-swing high resistance
2. Second Resistance Level: 1990.35
   • Swing high resistance

Trade Suggestion for Ethereum

Based on the chart analysis, a trade suggestion is as follows:

• BUY at 1945.6
• Take Profit (TP) at1975.6
• Stop Loss (SL) at 1922.0

By considering these levels, traders can potentially benefit from the current bullish momentum on the ETH/USD chart.