FUNDAMENTAL REPORT FORECAST 

MARKET UPDATE:

Wall Street rises as positive profits outweigh concerns about a slowdown, with the Fed meeting in the spotlight.

U.S. market indexes rose on Friday as the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates next week, supported by economic statistics and good earnings reports from Exxon and Intel that helped to allay concerns about Amazon’s slowdown warning.

“Overall, this week’s earnings exceeded people’s expectations. According to Peter , president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia, “there was a lot of pessimism going in, but the past week has hammered home the fact that it’s not turning into a horrible earnings season at all.

The S&P gained 1.5% for the month, the Dow increased by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq barely increased. In accordance with the Dow’s weekly gain, the S&P gained 0.9% for the week, while the Nasdaq gained 1.3%.

Consumer spending in the United States stayed constant in March, according to data, although underlying inflation pressures remained high, fuelling anticipation that the Fed will increase interest rates by 25 basis points next week.

Other data revealed that the U.S. economy grew less quickly than anticipated in the first quarter, and that rising recession fears in April were exacerbated by falling consumer confidence.

The Fed vowed greater supervision and harsher standards for banks in a detailed and critical review of its inability to spot issues and push for changes at Silicon Valley Bank before to the American lender’s collapse.

Shares of First Republic fell during the regular session and after the close, despite the S&P 500 bank index closing 1.1%. According to a source with knowledge of the situation, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the United States was getting ready to put First Republic into receivership as soon as possible since there was running out of time to attempt a private-sector rescue.

What happened in the Asia Session?

While Consumer Confidence unexpectedly increased to 35.4, the Final Manufacturing PMI for the Japanese Yen remained at 49.5. The value of the yen could rise if there are good reports on Japanese consumer confidence.

While ANZ job advertisements for AUD decreased by 0.3%, the Australian MI Inflation Gauge increased by 0.2%. The mixed Australian data could lead to range bound trading for the AUD.

What does it mean for the Europe & US Session?

European holiday trade may be restricted to Asia session counterparts. In conjunction with NZD/USD at 0.6200 and USD/JPY at 137.00, AUD/USD may test a range high around 0.6650.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ISM Manufacturing PMI

What can we expect from DXY today?

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of the health of the economy, and the USD is frequently greatly impacted by its release. With a previous reading of 46.3 and a predicted figure of 46.8, a reading above or below the forecast might strengthen or weaken the USD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The US banking system is sound and resilient, but recent developments may result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses.
• The Federal Reserve has raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 per cent, committed to returning inflation to its 2 per cent objective.
• In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will consider various factors, including the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and economic and financial developments.
• Next meeting is on 3 May 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from gold today?

Gold prices may decline because of the US inflation rate staying constant at 0.3% since it is often thought of as an inflation hedge.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Mixed

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The JPY currency may suffer if the anticipated Final Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.5 shows a contraction in the manufacturing sector and an overall slowdown in the economy. However, the anticipated increase in consumer confidence from 33.9 to 34.7 could have a favourable effect on the JPY currency by boosting economic growth and consumer spending.  

Central Bank Notes:

• The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2% 
• Japan’s economy is expected to recover gradually
• The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary
• Next meeting is on 27 April 2023 

Next 24 Hours Bias

Mixed

Global Markets:

Asian Stock Markets: Nikkei up 0.92%, Shanghai Composite up 1.14%, Hang Seng up 0.27%, ASX up 0.35%

European equities, the DAX futures up 0.77%, CAC 40 up 0.10%, FTSE up 0.50%.

US Stock Market: Dow jones up 0.80%, S&P 500 up at 0.83%, Nasdaq 100 up at 0.69%.            

Commodities: Gold at $1983.10 (-0.33%), Silver at $24.06 (+0.13%), Brent Oil at $78.67 (-2.07%), WTI Oil at $75.12 (-2.16%)

News & Data

• (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Forecast 46.8, Previous 46.3 at 19:30
• (USD) ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr) Forecast 47.9, Previous 46.9

Technical Outlook

GBPUSD

Bullish momentum is currently seen on the GBP/USD chart. Price action is showing signs of strength, and this bullish momentum may eventually push the price further in the direction of the first resistance level at 1.2546.

Price might move higher towards the second resistance at 1.2598 if it were to overcome the first obstacle. This degree of resistance is extremely high and has the potential to be a powerful level of resistance.

In contrast, if the price were to turn around and move lower, it might run into support at the first support level at 1.2383. This support level has previously served as a strong level of assistance and is an overlap support.

The second support at 1.2339 is the amount of support that the price may fall to if it were to breach the first support. This support level should be closely watched because it also functions as an overlap support.

EURUSD

Bullish momentum is currently seen on the EUR/USD chart. Because of the bullish momentum, the price is in a bullish ascending channel, which indicates that price may continue to rise.

Given the bullish trend, price may continue to rise in the direction of the first resistance level at 1.1070. This resistance level is crucial to watch since it overlaps with a 78.60% Fibonacci projection and lines up with it.

Price might move upward towards the second resistance at 1.1129 if it were to overcome the first obstacle. This resistance level is crucial to watch because a -27% Fibonacci expansion lines up with it.

However, if the price were to turn around and move lower, it might find support at the first support level at 1.0993. This level of support, which is a swing low support, has served as a reliable level of support in the past.

The second support, at 1.0911, is the level of support that the price may fall to if it were to breach the first support. This support level is crucial to monitor because it also functions as an overlap support.

AUDUSD

Strong positive momentum is presently visible on the AUD/USD chart, and there is a chance that it will continue in that direction towards the first resistance level of 0.6676. 

On the chart, two significant support levels have been noted. The initial level of support is at 0.6593, a multiple-swing low support. This level has previously undergone several tests and has performed admirably, making it a strong support level for possible price rebounds. The second level of support is at 0.6567, which is a 127.20% Fibonacci Expansion and another multi-swing low support. 

There are two strong resistance levels to be on the lookout for. The first barrier is a pullback barrier at 0.6676, which also happens to be a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. It is wise to keep an eye out for potential price reversals at this resistance level. Price might move up to the second resistance level at 0.6753 if it were to break through this resistance level, signalling a strong bullish momentum. 

Additionally, there is an overlap support level at 0.6623, which is a level of intermediate support. 

USDJPY

There is currently a bearish momentum on the USD/JPY chart. Despite being above a significant ascending trend line, the price is also contained within a bearish descending channel, suggesting that the bearish momentum may cause the price to continue to decline.

Price might perhaps fall to the first support level at 135.00 if it were to breach the rising trend line. Given the bearish momentum, price may make a bearish break off the first support and fall in the direction of the second support, which is at 133.34. 

Price might move upward towards the second obstacle at 136.76 if it were to break over the first resistance at 135.11. This level of resistance, which is an overlap resistance, has the potential to be very strong.

If the price were to turn around and move down, though, it might run into resistance at the intermediate resistance level at 134.37. 

Price might accelerate strongly bullishly towards the first resistance at 135.11 if it were to breach the intermediate level.

DOW JONES

Strong positive momentum is currently visible on Dow Jones chart, and there is a chance that it will continue in that direction approaching the first resistance level at 34286.35. The price is currently above the Ichi Moku cloud at 34204.25, indicating a positive trend as of this writing.

On the chart, two significant support levels have been noted. The initial level of support is at 33808.68, which also happens to be an overlap support and a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. It is wise to keep an eye out for future price bounces around this support level. Another overlap support, the second support level is located at 33444.73.

There are two strong resistance levels to be on the lookout for. The initial resistance level is located at 34202.84, a swing high resistance that also happens to be a Fibonacci projection of 78.60%. This resistance level can serve as a useful starting point for searching for potential price reversals. Price movement might flip in favour of the bullish side and reach the second barrier level at 34695.79 if it were to break over this level of resistance. A 127.20% Fibonacci expansion is this level.

WTI CRUDE OIL

With potential for a bullish bounce off the first support level at 73.73 and moving in the direction of the first resistance level at 76.76, the WTI chart is now showing bullish momentum. As of this writing, the price is above the Ichi Moku cloud at 74.97, demonstrating bullish momentum.

On the chart, two significant support levels have been noted. The initial support level, which is a pullback support, is around 73.73. It is wise to keep an eye out for future price bounces around this support level. The second support level, which also serves as a pullback support, is located at 70.14. This second support level might serve as a nice bounce point for prices to reverse back up if they were to fall below the first support level.

There are two strong resistance levels to be on the lookout for. The initial resistance level, an overlap resistance, is located at 76.76. This resistance level can serve as a useful starting point for searching for potential price reversals. Price might move up towards the second resistance level at 78.56 if it were to break through the first resistance level. Both resistance levels that overlap at this level suggest the possibility of continued bullish momentum.

At 73.21, which is an overlap support, there is also a level of intermediate support. This level may serve as a useful stopping point for a bullish continuation towards the first resistance level.

GOLD

Bullish momentum is there on the XAU/USD chart, and there is a chance that it will continue in that direction approaching the first resistance level at 2003.29 As of this writing, the price is above the Ichi Moku cloud at 2001.24, demonstrating bullish momentum.

On the chart, two significant support levels have been noted. 1973.57, a multiple-swing low support, serves as the first level of support. It is wise to keep an eye out for future price bounces around this support level. The second level of support is located at 1932.22 and is a multi-swing low support as well. 

There are two strong resistance levels to be on the lookout for. 2003.29, a multi-swing high resistance level, serves as the first level of resistance. This resistance level can serve as a useful starting point for searching for potential price reversals. Price might move up towards the second resistance level at 2045.93 if it were to break through the first resistance level. 

At 1983.30, a level of overlap support, there is also a level of intermediate support. This level may serve as a useful stopping point for a bullish continuation towards the first resistance level.

BITCOIN

With potential for a bearish response off the first resistance level at 29506.65 and a down to the first support level at 28621.99, the BTC/USD chart is currently showing bearish momentum. The price is below the Ichi Moku cloud as of this writing, at 28603.00, indicating a negative momentum.

On the chart, two significant support levels have been noted. The first support level, an overlap support, is at 28621. It is wise to keep an eye out for future price bounces around this support level. Another overlap support level at 26536, which also corresponds to a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, serves as the second level of support. This second support level might serve as a nice bounce point for prices to reverse back up if they were to fall below the first support level.

There are two strong resistance levels to be on the lookout for. The initial resistance level, which is a swing high resistance, is located at 29506. This resistance level can serve as a useful starting point for searching for potential price reversals. Price movement might flip in favour of the bullish side and reach the second barrier level at 30454 if it were to break above this level of resistance. A swing high resistance level, this level also corresponds to a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement.