. Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends- 10 April 2023

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends-10 April 2023

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends-10 April 2023

10 Apr 2023

FUNDAMENTAL REPORT FORECAST 

MARKET UPDATE:

As investors, concerned about a weakening economy, looked to impending jobs data, major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on Thursday. This was made possible by a jump in Alphabet shares.

The gains in the S&P 500 for the day were driven mostly by Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O), which both gained 3.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The Wall Street Journal reports that Google, a division of Alphabet, intends to upgrade its search engine with AI capabilities.

Initial jobless claims decreased to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ending April 1 compared to forecasts of 200,000 claims, adding to recent data that point to a sluggish labour market.

48,000 additional applications were submitted, according to revised Labour Department data from the previous week.

The S&P 500 increased by 0.36% to 4,105.02 points at session’s finish. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.01% to 33,485.29 points while the Nasdaq increased 0.76% to 12,087.96 points.

This was a departure from recent months, when investors hailed weak economic news on the theory that it would indicate that the Fed’s interest rate hikes were having the desired effect and that the Fed should now relax its efforts to tame inflation that had reached decades-high levels.

According to the Fed Watch tool from CME Group, interest rate futures indicate that traders are undecided about whether the Fed will increase its target rate or leave it unchanged at its next May meeting. Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively low, with 9 billion shares moved, compared to an average of 12.7 billion shares over the preceding 20 sessions, perhaps due to the absence of some investors during a short holiday week.

What happened in the Asian session?

The actual amount of Japan’s current account, which was revealed, was 1.09T JPY, greater than the previous value of 0.20T JPY but less than the anticipated number of 1.43T JPY. In the data on consumer confidence, the actual figure, which was 33.9, above both the anticipated value of 31.9 and the previous value, which was 31.1. According to Economic Watchers Sentiment data, the actual value is 53.3, which is higher than both the forecasted value of 52.9 and the prior value of 52.0.

What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?

The better-than-expected Consumer Confidence and Economic Watchers Sentiment figures for Japan may balance out the JPY’s negative effects from the lower-than-expected Current Account surplus. The USD/JPY pair is forecast to move lower towards 132.00 below the intraday high set during the Asian session, around 132.80.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

The impact on the USD may be minimal unless the Final Wholesale Inventories m/m diverge significantly from forecasts, which is possible given that both historical and projection data for this indicator show a 0.2% increase.

Central Bank Notes:

  • The US banking system is sound and resilient, but recent developments may result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses.
  • The Federal Reserve has raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 per cent, committed to returning inflation to its 2 per cent objective.
  • In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will consider various factors, including the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and economic and financial developments.
  • Next meeting is on 3 May 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Unless the Final Wholesale Inventories m/m dramatically deviates from projections, which is feasible given that both historical and projection data for this indicator imply a 0.2% increase, the impact on the USD may be minor.

Central Bank Notes:

  • Kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%
  • Full impact of previous interest rate hikes is yet to be felt.
  • Inflation in Australia has peaked, and the central forecast is to decline this year, at around 3% in mid-2025.
  • Further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary to achieve the 2 – 3% inflation targets
  • Next meeting on 2 May 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The EUR is not likely to be significantly impacted by any major news events today, so traders are looking towards future data releases for guidance. Sen tix Investor Confidence is scheduled to release statistics on Tuesday, and it is anticipated that the number will drop from -11.1 to -12.8. In contrast, it is anticipated that the Retail Sales m/m data would decrease from its previous reading of 0.3% to -0.8%.

Central Bank Notes:

  • ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points to ensure the 2% inflation target is met
  • Inflation is projected to average 5.3% in 2023, with growth at 1%, and underlying price pressures remain strong
  • The bank will continue to monitor market tensions closely and will be data-dependent in its policy rate decisions
  • Next meeting on 4 May 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish


Global Markets:

Asian Stock Markets: Nikkei up 0.42%, Shanghai Composite down 0.37%, Hang Seng up 0.28%, ASX down 0.31%

European equities, the DAX futures up 0.50%, CAC 40 up 0.12%, FTSE up 1.03%.

US Stock Market: Dow jones up 0.01%, S&P 500 up at 0.36%, Nasdaq 100 up at 0.76%.                    

Commodities: Gold at $2000.28 (-0.32%), Silver at $24.92 (-0.09%), Brent Oil at $85.19 (+0.08%), WTI Oil at $80.85 (+0.19%)

News & Data

  • (JPY) Adjusted Current Account (Feb) Actual 1.09T, Forecast 1.43T, Previous 0.22T at 05:20
  • (JPY) Current Account n.s.a. (Feb) Actual 2.197T, Forecast 2.536T, Previous –1.977T at 05:20

Technical Outlook

GBPUSD

When analysing the GBP/USD chart, the overall momentum is bullish. Price could maintain its upward trend towards the first resistance level of 1.2522.

1.2407, a pullback support level, should be kept an eye on as the first level of support. Given the possibility of a price bounce off this level and the continuation of the bullish trend, this level presents a strong purchasing opportunity. A multi-swing low support level at 1.2265 serves as the second support level to keep an eye on. Price has already bounced off this level, highlighting its significance, thus it is also a crucial level.

The overlap resistance level at 1.2655 is the first level to keep an eye on in terms of resistance. This level is crucial since a break above it would indicate that the bullish momentum will continue.

EURUSD

Analysing the EUR/USD chart, we can see that the general momentum is neutral right now. It’s important to note that the price is above a significant ascending trend line, which signals that more positive momentum may be in store.

Price moves could take place anywhere between the first resistance and first support levels.

The first support level, which is an overlap support level, is located at 1.0827. This level is a strong support level because it has undergone numerous tests in the past.

The second support level, which is a multi-swing low support level, is located at 1.0711. This level has additionally undergone numerous tests in the past, making it another potent support level to be wary of.

The overlap resistance level at 1.0922 is the first resistance level on the resistance side. Also, this level has undergone numerous tests in the past, making it a powerful resistance level.

AUDUSD

Prices are currently trading below the negative Ichi Moku cloud on the AUD/USD chart, which is displaying a bearish momentum. This implies that there might be more room for the currency pair to fall.

A bearish continuation towards the first support level at 0.6640 is anticipated when looking at the possible price movements. This level is an important one to observe because it is a strong overlap support and a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement lines up with it.

The second support, at 0.6554, is the level where prices could fall to if they dip below this level. This level serves as a pullback support and is significant because a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement lines up with it.

On the resistance side, it’s important to pay attention to the initial resistance level at 0.6792. Despite being a pullback resistance, it is not as important as the support levels because no Fibonacci retracements coincide with it.

Therefore, it is expected that the AUD/USD currency pair will continue to see downside pressure given the bearish trend and the present stance below the Ichi Moku cloud.

USDJPY

The general momentum on the USD/JPY chart is bullish. This means that the price may rise further towards the first resistance level.

The first support level, which also happens to be the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, is located at 130.756 and is a strong overlap support level. As a result, it is at a healthy level for potential purchasers to enter the market.

Price might perhaps find support at the swing low support level at 129.525 if it were to fall below the first support level, which is the second support level.

The first resistance level, which is a pullback resistance level and corresponds with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, is located at 133.287. If price were to move higher, however, it might eventually reach this level if it does so.

Price might move upward towards the second resistance level, which is also a pullback resistance level at 145.1600, if it were to break through the first resistance level.

A potential barrier for price before it reaches the first resistance level is an overlap resistance level located at 133.287, which is another intermediate resistance level.

HANG SENG

The price may drop further till it reaches the first support level. The initial level of support is at 20016 and is a drop support with a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. If price breaks through this level, it can move on to the second support level at 19317, which is also a drop support with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. 

If price moves higher after bouncing off the first support level, it may eventually approach the first resistance level at 20640, which is a swing high resistance. The second resistance level, which is marked by a swing high resistance and a Fibonacci extension of 127.20%, is situated at 21376.

The chart currently has a bullish momentum.

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI crude oil has been trending lower recently, and the price may do so further towards the first support level. The overall momentum of the chart is currently bearish. 

The first level of support to watch is at 78.51, which is the drop support level and 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. This is an important threshold because a break below it could portend the continuation of the bearish momentum. Crossover support level at 75.57 is the second level to pay attention to.

On the resistance side, the first level to watch is at 82.11, which is a swing high resistance level. If the price can break through this level, the bearish momentum might change. The next level to watch is 86.12, another swing high resistance level.

GOLD

The general momentum of the gold chart is trending lower, and recent swings in the gold price have been bearish. 

If the bearish pattern continues, the price may go in the direction of the first support level at $1994.31. The 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level coincides with this level, making it a potent support zone. 

if the market drops below the first support level, it can reach the second support level at $1962.03.  

On the other hand, if there is a bullish reversal, the price may go in the direction of the first resistance level at $2033.76. This level is a strong resistance area because it’s close to a previous swing high. 

If the bullish momentum continues, the second resistance level at $2050.00, which is also a significant barrier region because it coincides with a previous swing high, can be hit.

ETHEREUM

The overall momentum of the ETC/USD chart is optimistic, suggesting that the price may continue to move higher. 

At 1679.54, there is the second support level, which also functions as a retreat support level. Because it has historically provided some support, this level is essential. 

1859.38 is the initial resistance level, which is a swing high resistance level. This resistance level is significant since it formerly served as a barrier to prevent price.

The second barrier is the swing high resistance level at 1949.30, which is also the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level. This resistance level is significant because it might serve as a strong barrier to prevent the price from climbing.