S&P 500 Sees Strong Weekly Gains Despite Banking Sector Woes.

Introduction

In this market update, we’ll take a look at the recent performance of the S&P 500, the impact of banks on the index, and the happenings in the Asia session. Additionally, we’ll discuss the implications for the Europe & US session, focusing on crude oil prices and the Euro. Finally, we’ll examine the current state of the Australian Dollar and the outlook for oil. Let’s dive in!

S&P 500 Weekly Performance

Despite a slight decline on Friday, all three major U.S. stock indexes, including the S&P 500, posted significant weekly gains. While banks and financial equities were primarily lower on the day due to quarterly reports, the overall market showed strength. UnitedHealth Group’s stock rise helped offset some of the dips, following its stronger-than-expected earnings. However, the S&P 500 banking index experienced a 0.9% loss. JPMorgan Chase shares increased by 0.6%, while Wells Fargo saw a decrease of 0.3%. Despite higher quarterly earnings, the big banks expressed the need to increase their reserves for potential losses on commercial real estate loans. The most negatively affected sectors on the benchmark index were energy, down 2.8%, and financials, down 0.7%.

Asia Session Highlights

During the Asia session, China released several important statistics, including GDP results, industrial production, and the unemployment rate. While the annual growth rate of the GDP was 6.3% YoY, slightly lower than the predicted 7.3%, the quarterly growth rate of 0.8% exceeded expectations of 0.5%. Industrial production expanded by 4.4% YoY, surpassing the estimated 2.7%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2%. Overall, the readings were stronger than the corresponding forecasts.

Europe & US Session Outlook

Crude Oil Prices and China’s Impact

Crude oil prices have been on a decline since last Friday. However, the recent data from China might provide a boost to this commodity. The price of WTI oil has dropped below the $75 per barrel range, with the next significant support level at $74. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY), which experienced a significant sell-off last week, is currently trading near the 100 mark. Before the decline resumes, DXY may retrace higher.

The Euro’s Outlook

Key news events regarding the Euro are centered around ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech at the ECB conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Her remarks have the potential to maintain the euro at a premium after it surpassed 1.1200 last week. It is important to note that the ECB raised the three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Although economic growth projections were slightly lowered, the Governing Council is committed to ensuring interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to achieve the inflation target and keeping them at those levels as long as necessary. Rate decisions will be data-dependent, considering inflation outlook, economic data, underlying inflation dynamics, and monetary policy transmission strength. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for July 27, 2023.

Australian Dollar Analysis

In terms of the Australian Dollar (AUD), there are no major news events today. However, last week, the Australian dollar’s strength brought it close to the 0.6900 level. As the new trading week begins, the AUD is showing vulnerability, slipping toward 0.6800 as Asian markets open. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%. Although inflation in Australia has passed its peak, it remains high at 7% and needs to return to the target range. Further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for August 1, 2023.

Oil Market Outlook

In the oil market, Chinese GDP and industrial production play significant roles. The reopening of China’s manufacturing and industrial sector has not occurred as many economists and observers expected. Consequently, crude oil prices have remained relatively stable, despite important OPEC countries extending their individual production curbs. Last week, WTI oil closed just above $75 a barrel. However, if China’s economic figures continue to disappoint, selling pressure on crude oil may increase.

Global Markets Snapshot

Here’s a snapshot of global market performances:

Asian Stock Markets

• Nikkei: Down 0.09%
• Shanghai Composite: Down 0.87%
• Hang Seng: Up 0.33%
• ASX: Down 0.06%

European Equities

• DAX futures: Down 0.19%
• CAC 40: Down 0.66%
• FTSE: Down 0.05%

US Stock Market

• Dow Jones: Up 0.33%
• S&P 500: Down 0.10%
• Nasdaq 100: Down 0.18%

Commodity Prices

• Gold: $1951.43 (-0.17%)
• Silver: $24.81 (-0.45%)
• Brent Oil: $78.88 (-1.24%)
• WTI Oil: $74.39 (-1.23%)

News & Data

Here are the latest news and data to keep an eye on:

• (CNY) Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun): Actual 4.4%, Forecast 2.7%, Previous 3.5% at 07:30
• (CNY) GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Actual 0.8%, Forecast 0.5%, Previous 2.2% at 07:30
• (CNY) GDP (YoY) (Q2): Actual 6.3%, Forecast 7.3%, Previous 4.5% at 07:30
• (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:00
• (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May): Forecast 3.5%, Previous –1.4% at 18:00

GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for GBPUSD (British Pound against the US Dollar) in the foreign exchange market. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Buy Sentiment The 5-day EMA for GBPUSD stands at 1.3088, suggesting a buying sentiment.
• EMA 20: Buy Indication The 20-day EMA displays a value of 1.2976, reinforcing a buy indication.
• EMA 50: Buy Recommendation With a value of 1.2845, the 50-day EMA aligns with a buy recommendation.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Sell Sentiment The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1.3101, indicating a selling sentiment.
• SMA 20: Buy Stance The 20-day SMA records 1.2954, supporting a buy stance.
• SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2798, signifying a buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 73.75, suggesting a buy signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral condition.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 1.3106
• Support: 1.3078

Summary And Trade Suggestions

Based on the technical analysis, GBPUSD presents a buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.3132
• Take Profit: 1.3162
• Stop Loss: 1.3110

EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will examine the technical indicators and trade suggestions for EURUSD (Euro against the US Dollar). By analyzing moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide insights to traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Buy Signal The 5-day EMA stands at 1.1219, indicating a buy signal for EURUSD.
• EMA 20: Buy Sentiment The 20-day EMA is at 1.1107, signaling a buy sentiment for EURUSD.
• EMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1.1005, suggesting a buy indication for EURUSD.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Buy Recommendation The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1.1228, reinforcing the buy recommendation for EURUSD.
• SMA 20: Buy Stance With a value of 1.1079, the 20-day SMA also supports a buy stance for EURUSD.
• SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA registers at 1.0971, affirming a buy indication for EURUSD.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 78.08, signifying a buy signal for EURUSD.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral stance.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 1.1243
• Support: 1.1201

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of EURUSD points towards a strong buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.1255
• Take Profit: 1.1282
• Stop Loss: 1.1235

AUDUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for AUDUSD (Australian Dollar against the US Dollar). By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Sell Signal The 5-day EMA stands at 0.6828, indicating a sell signal for AUDUSD.
• EMA 20: Buy Sentiment The 20-day EMA is at 0.6772, signaling a buy sentiment for AUDUSD.
• EMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day EMA currently sits at 0.6728, suggesting a buy indication for AUDUSD.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Sell Recommendation The 5-day SMA shows a value of 0.6843, reinforcing the sell recommendation for AUDUSD.
• SMA 20: Buy Stance With a value of 0.6748, the 20-day SMA also supports a buy stance for AUDUSD.
• SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA registers at 0.6693, affirming a buy indication for AUDUSD.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 60.60, signifying a buy signal for AUDUSD.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a negative stance.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 0.68344
• Support: 0.68029

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of AUDUSD points towards a buying sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 0.68533
• Take Profit: 0.68912
• Stop Loss: 0.68294

USDJPY Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will examine the technical indicators and trade suggestions for USDJPY (US Dollar against the Japanese Yen). By analyzing moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide insights to traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Sell Signal The 5-day EMA stands at 138.42, indicating a sell signal for USDJPY.
• EMA 20: Sell Sentiment The 20-day EMA is at 139.88, signaling a sell sentiment for USDJPY.
• EMA 50: Sell Indication The 50-day EMA currently sits at 141.21, suggesting a sell indication for USDJPY.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Sell Recommendation The 5-day SMA shows a value of 138.29, reinforcing the sell recommendation for USDJPY.
• SMA 20: Sell Stance With a value of 140.080, the 20-day SMA also supports a sell stance for USDJPY.
• SMA 50: Sell Indication The 50-day SMA registers at 142.50, affirming a sell indication for USDJPY.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 30.34, signifying a sell signal for USDJPY.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a negative stance.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 138.80
• Support: 137.87

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of USDJPY points towards a sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 137.54
• Take Profit: 136.92
• Stop Loss: 138.03

S&P 500 Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for the S&P 500 index. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Sell Signal The 5-day EMA stands at 4532.47, indicating a sell signal for the S&P 500.
• EMA 20: Buy Sentiment The 20-day EMA is at 4502.31, signaling a buy sentiment for the S&P 500.
• EMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day EMA currently sits at 4462.43, suggesting a buy indication for the S&P 500.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Sell Recommendation The 5-day SMA shows a value of 4537.99, reinforcing the sell recommendation for the S&P 500.
• SMA 20: Buy Stance With a value of 4487.85, the 20-day SMA also supports a buy stance for the S&P 500.
• SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA registers at 4457.86, affirming a buy indication for the S&P 500.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 67.48, signifying a buy signal for the S&P 500.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive stance.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 4540.39
• Support: 4526.51

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of the S&P 500 points towards a buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 4546.70
• Take Profit: 4560.11
• Stop Loss: 4537.73

WTI CRUDE OIL Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for WTI Crude Oil. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Sell Signal The 5-day EMA stands at 74.85, indicating a sell signal for WTI Crude Oil.
• EMA 20: Buy Sentiment The 20-day EMA is at 74.38, signaling a buy sentiment for WTI Crude Oil.
• EMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day EMA currently sits at 72.82, suggesting a buy indication for WTI Crude Oil.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Sell Recommendation The 5-day SMA shows a value of 75.02, reinforcing the sell recommendation for WTI Crude Oil.
• SMA 20: Sell Stance With a value of 74.36, the 20-day SMA also supports a sell stance for WTI Crude Oil.
• SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA registers at 71.87, affirming a buy indication for WTI Crude Oil.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 55.91, signifying a buy signal for WTI Crude Oil.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a negative stance.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 74.63
• Support: 74.11

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of WTI Crude Oil points toward a buying sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 74.85
• Take Profit: 75.35
• Stop Loss: 74.48

GOLD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for Gold. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Buy Signal The 5-day EMA stands at 1955.75, indicating a buy signal for Gold.
• EMA 20: Buy Sentiment The 20-day EMA is at 1944.18, signaling a buy sentiment for Gold.
• EMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1936.41, suggesting a buy indication for Gold.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Buy Recommendation The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1956.50, reinforcing the buy recommendation for Gold.
• SMA 20: Buy Stance With a value of 1940.23, the 20-day SMA also supports a buy stance for Gold.
• SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA registers at 1926.74, affirming a buy indication for Gold.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 66.36, signifying a buy signal for Gold.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive stance.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 1960.13
• Support: 1953.43

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of Gold points towards a buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1963.62
• Take Profit: 1972.65
• Stop Loss: 1957.50

ETHEREUM Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for Ethereum. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

• EMA 5: Sell Signal The 5-day EMA stands at 1943.53, indicating a sell signal for Ethereum.
• EMA 20: Buy Sentiment The 20-day EMA is at 1930.88, signaling a buy sentiment for Ethereum.
• EMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1907.11, suggesting a buy indication for Ethereum.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

• SMA 5: Sell Recommendation The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1943.80, reinforcing the sell recommendation for Ethereum.
• SMA 20: Buy Stance With a value of 1927.37, the 20-day SMA also supports a buy stance for Ethereum.
• SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA registers at 1911.76, affirming a buy indication for Ethereum.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 52.36, signifying a buy signal for Ethereum.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive stance.

Resistance and Support Levels

• Resistance: 1956.90
• Support: 1930.35

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of Ethereum points towards a buying sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1969.15
• Take Profit: 2004.88
• Stop Loss: 1944.65

Conclusion

In conclusion, despite the S&P 500’s minor decline, the market saw strong weekly gains. China’s GDP and industrial production figures provided positive surprises, potentially impacting the oil market. The Euro’s outlook will be influenced by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech. The Australian Dollar faces vulnerability after showing strength last week. Lastly, crude oil prices remain stable, but China’s economic performance may lead to increased selling pressure. Stay updated with the latest news and data to make informed investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is the S&P 500?

A: The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies listed on stock exchanges.

Q: How are bank earnings impacting the stock market?

A: Bank earnings play a significant role in the stock market, especially in the financial sector. Positive earnings reports can drive stock prices higher, while disappointing earnings may lead to declines.

Q: What factors influence crude oil prices?

A: Crude oil prices are influenced by various factors, including global demand and supply, geopolitical events, production cuts by oil-producing countries, and economic indicators.

Q: How does China’s GDP affect the global economy?

A: China’s GDP has a significant impact on the global economy. As the world’s second-largest economy, changes in China’s GDP growth rate can influence global trade, commodity prices, and investor sentiment.

Q: What is the role of the European Central Bank (ECB)?

A: The European Central Bank (ECB) is responsible for monetary policy and maintaining price stability in the eurozone. It sets interest rates, conducts open market operations, and supervises banking institutions.

Q: How does monetary policy affect the Australian Dollar?

A: Monetary policy decisions, such as interest rate changes, implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can impact the value of the Australian Dollar. Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investments and strengthen the currency.