FUNDAMENTAL REPORT FORECASTÂ
MARKET UPDATE:
Following mixed earnings reports, the major U.S. stock indices concluded the day with slight gains as investors evaluated how conflicting economic data would affect interest rates and anticipated a busy week of corporate reporting.
After statistics earlier in the week suggested a slowing economy, a survey revealed that U.S. business activity increased to an 11-month high in April, casting further doubt on the future for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Throughout the early phases of the first-quarter earnings season, which investors anticipate producing mediocre results, the benchmark S&P 500 has remained largely constant. There will be a deluge of reports the next week, including those from mega cap technology and growth firms, the shares of which have contributed to the year’s early S&P 500 surge.
In anticipation of significant tech earnings, the next week, the market has essentially been in a holding pattern, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Trust Advisory Services. “There is a tug-of-war between good and bad economic data, good and bad earnings data.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.4% for the week.
What happened in the Asian session?
Right move HPI for the UK increased by 0.2% month over month. This is less growth than the 0.8% gain from the previous month. The UK housing market may be slowing down, which could harm the GBP, according to the data release, which was lower than the last report.
What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?
As expected, the USD bulls used the early consolidative mood in the Asia session to move higher. The status quo will likely remain since the upcoming sessions mainly consist of second-tier European data releases.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from DXY today?
Since there is no significant US news event today, the price movement will probably be influenced by previously available data. The USD may rise if the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI show improvement.
Central Bank Notes:
- The US banking system is sound and resilient, but recent developments may result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses.
- The Federal Reserve has raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 per cent, committed to returning inflation to its 2 per cent objective.
- In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will consider various factors, including the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and economic and financial developments.
- Next meeting is on 3 May 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
Increased demand for the EUR could result from a better German Ifo Business Climate data figure, one that is substantially higher than the predicted data for the upcoming release at 93.4 (prior 93.3). On the other hand, noticeably inferior actual data may reduce investor confidence and consequently demand.
Central Bank Notes:
- ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points to ensure the 2% inflation target is met
- Inflation is projected to average 5.3% in 2023, with growth at 1%, and underlying price pressures remain strong
- The bank will continue to monitor market tensions closely and will be data-dependent in its policy rate decisions
- Next meeting on 4 May 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
As there are no important news events affecting the yen today, it is anticipated that the price movement will be determined by impending data releases. Investors will be particularly interested in the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) y/y number, which is expected to be 1.7%, slightly below the prior reading of 1.8%. It is also anticipated that the BoJ Core CPI y/y number will stay at 2.6%.
Central Bank Notes:
- The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%
- Japan’s economy is expected to recover gradually
- The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary
- Next meeting is on 27 April 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
Global Markets:
Asian Stock Markets: Nikkei down 0.10%, Shanghai Composite down 0.78%, Hang Seng down 0.58%, ASX down 0.11%
European equities, the DAX futures up 0.01%, CAC 40 down 0.07%, FTSE down 0.06%.
US Stock Market: Dow jones up 0.07%, S&P 500 up at 0.09%, Nasdaq 100 up at 0.11%.
Commodities: Gold at $1983.56 (+0.64%), Silver at $25.02 (-0.24%), Brent Oil at $81.12 (-0.42%), WTI Oil at $77.62 (-0.32%)
News & Data
- (GBP) German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr) Actual 93.6, Forecast 94.0, Previous 93.3 at 13:30
- (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) Forecast 0.3%, Previous –1.7% at 18:00
- (CAD) New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Mar) Forecast –0.5%, Previous –0.2% at 18:00
- (EUR) ECB`s Panetta Speaks at 19:00
- (SGD) Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) Actual 5.00%, Forecast 5.10%, Previous 5.50% at 10:30
Technical Outlook
GBPUSD
The general momentum on the GBP/USD chart is bullish, suggesting that the price may continue to increase towards the first barrier level.
1.2346 is a nice level for prospective support and the first support level. The 23.60% Fibonacci retracement and overlap support at this level offer a substantial level of possible support for the price should it fall.
The next possible level of support, which also overlaps with the previous level and falls within the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, is at 1.2273. The price has historically found support at this level.
On the other hand, the first resistance level is at 1.2471 if the price were to increase. A big level of possible resistance for the price exists at this level, which is a multi-swing high resistance and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
The next possible resistance level is at 1.2528, which would be reached if the price were to pass through the first resistance level. This level has served as a price resistance in the past and is a multi-swing high resistance.
EURUSD
The price is in a bullish ascending channel, which contributes to the EUR/USD chart’s overall bullish momentum. This channel shows that given the price’s positive trend, it may continue to rise.
Possible bullish extension of the price towards the first resistance level, located at 1.1032. This level has served as a price barrier level in the past since it is a pullback resistance. A break above this level might signal a continuation of the price’s positive trend.
At 1.0910, the first support level is an excellent place to look for prospective help. As an overlap support, this level may offer support if the price were to decline.
The next possible support level, if the price were to go below the first support level, is at 1.0832. This level has served as a support level for the price in the past and is also an overlap support.
However, if the price were to increase, the second resistance level would be at 1.1070. Since it has previously served as a level of resistance for the price, this level is a swing high resistance, which means that if the price were to approach it, it might offer powerful opposition.
There is an intermediate resistance level at 1.0986 if the price were to pass through the first resistance level. Prior to reaching the second resistance level, the price may encounter opposition at this overlap resistance level.
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD chart is negative, indicating that prices could decline further. As a result, it is anticipated that the price may make a bearish break off the first support level at 0.6680 and decline in direction of the second support level at 0.6624.
The initial support level is at 0.6680, which is regarded favourably since it overlaps with the 78.60% Fibonacci projection level and acts as a support. This support level is crucial for traders since it has historically attracted buying interest.
The second level of support, a multi-swing low support, is located at 0.6624. This level has previously attracted interest from buyers and may provide as additional support if the price declines even further.
The initial resistance level, which is an overlap barrier and corresponds with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, is at 0.6785. In the past, there has been a lot of selling interest around this level.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the second resistance level are both at 0.6873, which is a pullback resistance. This resistance level is crucial because it can serve as a barrier to any price increases.
USDJPY
The price is currently above a significant ascending trend line and on an ascending trend line that serves as support on the USD/JPY chart, indicating that more upward momentum is likely. Consequently, it is anticipated that the price may eventually continue to rise in direction of the first resistance level at 135.04.
The initial level of support is at 133.72, which is seen favourably since it overlaps another level of support and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support level is crucial for traders since it has historically attracted buying interest.
The second support level is at 132.41, although it is not explained why it is thought to be strong. However, if the price continues to decline, this level may provide as additional support.
The initial resistance level, which is an overlap resistance, is at 135.04 in terms of levels of resistance. A breakout above this level might start a bullish momentum that could continue as this level has historically been a big region of selling interest.
The second resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance, is located at 137.02. The initial resistance level may potentially operate as an additional barrier to price increases if the price were to break above it.
DOW JONES
The DJ30 chart indicates that prices may perhaps continue to decline. As a result, it is anticipated that the price may make a probable negative move towards the first support level at 33587.40.
The initial support level is at the 33571.99 level, which is regarded favourably since it overlaps with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level and acts as a support. This support level has historically attracted buying interest and might perhaps serve as another support level should the price decline continue.
The second support level, a pullback support, is located at 33264.71, which also happens to be the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. This level has previously drawn interest from buyers and could serve as additional support if the price continues to decline.
The first resistance level, which is also a multi-swing high resistance, is located at 34162.91. This level has historically seen a lot of selling activity and might potentially function as resistance to price increases.
The second resistance level, which is similarly a multi-swing high resistance, is located at 34399.28. This resistance level is crucial because it can serve as a barrier to any price increases.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI may continue its downward trend towards the first support.
The price is currently below a significant falling trend line, which is one of the elements contributing to the WTI chart’s current bearish momentum. It implies that further bearish momentum is imminent.
Price might likely make a negative move towards the first support at 77.06 if it maintains its current momentum. Given that it lines up with a swing low support and a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, this level is a strong support.
If the price moves away from the first support and then upward, it can move towards the pullback resistance level at the intermediate resistance at 78.87. From there, the price may continue to decline in direction of the first resistance level at 81.68. An overlap resistance exists at this level.
The second support at 77.06 may be reached if the price were to break through the first level, though. This level serves as a pullback support, making it a strong support as well. The price might carry on falling towards the second barrier at 84.65 if it were to breach the second support. There is substantial swing resistance at this level.
GOLD
Technical analysis indicates that the XAU/USD has been trending downward lately. The price is most likely to have a negative reaction off the first resistance level and drop to the first support level, according to the chart.
1969.54, a multi-swing low support and 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level, serves as the first support level. This level has historically demonstrated significant support and might do so once more. The next support level, which is also a multi-swing low support and a 78.60% Fibonacci projection level, is at 1949.24 if the price drops below this level.
On the other hand, the initial resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance level, is located at 1985.25. This level has historically served as resistance and is expected to do so again. The next resistance level is at 2014.45, which is a multi-swing high resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, if the price breaks above this level.
ETHEREUM
ETH/USD Momentum Is Still Bullish with a Chance to Rebound from First Support
Given that the price is currently above a significant ascending trend line and that additional positive momentum is anticipated, the overall momentum for ETH/USD remains favourable.
Potentially, ETH/USD might produce a positive bounce off the first support and move in the direction of the first resistance.
1841.85 is the initial support level, making it a useful level to watch for a potential bounce. The overlap support level at this point falls on a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
Price movement could move upward towards the first resistance at 1943.28 if it bounces off this support level. This level is an important one to watch since it acts as a pullback resistance and coincides with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
If the first support level is broken, the price may fall towards the second support at 1770.26. This level is important since it also functions as an overlap support.
On the other hand, if the price can go past the first level of resistance, it may move up towards the second level of resistance at 2014.87. A significant level of resistance, this level represents a pullback resistance that coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
