FUNDAMENTAL REPORT FORECAST

MARKET UPDATE:

Wall Street’s major indexes had their biggest drops this month as a pessimistic UPS prediction on Tuesday heightened investor concerns about a weakening U.S. economy while falling deposits at a local First Republic Bank increased anxiety about the state of the banking industry. The statistics released on Tuesday showing that U.S. consumer sentiment hit a nine-month low in April was also concerning.

The major averages on Wall Street experienced their steepest losses so far this month on Tuesday as First Republic Bank’s falling deposits and a dismal UPS outlook contributed to market anxieties over the state of the banking industry.

According to Refinitiv IBES data, 79% of the 124 S&P 500 businesses that have reported first-quarter profit as of Tuesday exceeded analysts’ estimates. A typical quarter saw 66% of businesses surpass expectations.

“Investors have been trying valiantly to hold it together in the midst of a big earnings and economic data week and a big Federal Reserve week next week,” said Carol , chief investment officer for BMO Family Office in Chicago.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting will take place on Wednesday, and traders anticipate a rate increase of 25 basis points.

The Nasdaq Composite recorded 35 new highs and 378 new lows, while the S&P 500 recorded 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows.

What happened in the Asia Session?

The Australian CPI data for Q1 2023 were inconsistent, with the actual CPI q/q figure coming in at 1.4%, which was lower than anticipated but higher than the prior reading of 1.9%. The CPI y/y number was 6.3% as opposed to the projected 6.5% and the previous 6.8%, and the Trimmed Mean CPI figure was similarly lower than anticipated at 1.2%. These numbers might affect the AUD. 

While the credit card spending y/y result was much lower than the last figure at 20.3%, the NZ Trade Balance figure came in worse than anticipated at -1273M. These changes are probably going to make the NZD weaker relative to other currencies.

What does it mean for the Europe & US Session?

The AUD/USD pair will probably drop below 0.6600 as a result of the mixed Australian CPI data. The pair may drop to the suggested objective at 0.6560 because of the upcoming US Durable Goods Orders m/m data. NZD/USD may test the level of 0.6100 concurrently.

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from gold today?

The weaker-than-expected US CB Consumer Confidence index may positively impact the price of gold in the short term. As the data suggests a potential weakness in the US economy, investors may turn to gold as it is often seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

As opposed to the 1.9% reported in the previous publication, the Australian CPI q/q is expected to be 1.3%. The CPI y/y is predicted to go from 6.8% to 6.6%, similarly. The Trimmed Mean CPI q/q is also anticipated to decline from 1.7% to 1.4%, which could support the predicted inflation decrease even more. As a result, the currency may suffer as the RBA is anticipated to take a less aggressive position regarding the trajectory of interest rates.

Central Bank Notes:

• Kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%
• Full impact of previous interest rate hikes is yet to be felt.
• Inflation in Australia has peaked, and the central forecast is to decline this year, at around 3% in mid-2025.
• Further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary to achieve the 2 – 3% inflation targets
• Next meeting on 2 May 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil inventories are predicted to have decreased by 1.3 million barrels, which is less than the previous fall of 4.6 million. This signifies a reduction in the crude oil supply, which could result in increased oil prices because of increasing demand.  

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Positive sentiment towards the GBP may result from the imminent release of the CBI Realised Sales statistics in the UK. The predicted number of 4 (formerly 1) implies a minor uptick in sales activity.

Central Bank Notes:

• The BoE’s MPC increased the Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25%, with a majority of 7-2 in favour of the hike
• The UK banking system is judged to be robust and resilient.
• CPI inflation increased unexpectedly but is expected to fall sharply over the rest of the year due to lower energy prices.
• The MPC will continue to monitor inflationary pressures and adjust Bank Rate as necessary.
• Next meeting on 11 May 2023 

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Global Markets:

Asian Stock Markets: Nikkei down 0.71%, Shanghai Composite down 0.02%, Hang Seng up 0.71%, ASX down 0.78%

European equities, the DAX futures down 0.54%, CAC 40 down 0.85%, FTSE down 0.24%.

US Stock Market: Dow jones down 1.02%, S&P 500 down at 1.58%, Nasdaq 100 down at 1.98%.            

Commodities: Gold at $1999.03 (+0.12%), Silver at $24.98 (-0.04%), Brent Oil at $80.63 (+0.04%), WTI Oil at $77.30 (+0.31%)

News & Data

• (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast –1.486M, Previous –4.581M at 20:00
• (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) Forecast –0.2, Previous –0.1% at 18:00
• (CAD) Manufacturing Sales (MoM) Forecast –0.3%, Previous –3.6% at 18:00
• (AUD) CPI (QoQ) (Q1) Actual 1.4%, Forecast 1.3%, Previous 1.9% at 07:00
• (AUD) CPI (YoY) (Q1) Actual 7.0%, Forecast 6.9%, Previous 7.8% at 07:00

Technical Outlook

GBPUSD

Given the bullish momentum that is now present on the GBP/USD chart, the price may continue to advance towards the first barrier level.  

Initial support is at 1.2360, which is also a decent level for potential support. Should the price decline, the level’s overlap support and 23.60% Fibonacci retracement offer a sizable amount of possible support.  

At 1.2300, which also falls under the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and crosses over the previous level, there is another potential level of support. The price has historically found support at this level.

On the other hand, the first resistance level is at 1.2495 if the price were to increase. A big level of possible resistance for the price exists at this level, which is a multi-swing high resistance and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.

The next possible resistance level is at 1.2538, which would be reached if the price were to pass through the first resistance level. This level has served as a price resistance in the past and is a multi-swing high resistance.

EURUSD

A bullish ascending channel in which the price is trading contributes to the overall bullish momentum on the EUR/USD chart. Given its upward tendency, this channel suggests that the price may continue to rise.  

The bullish price trend may continue as it approaches the 1.1050 first barrier level. This level is a pullback resistance and has historically been a price barrier level. With a break over this level, the price may keep moving higher.  

At 1.0935, the first support level is a wonderful place to look for prospective help. This level might provide as overlap support if the price were to decline.

The next possible support level, if the price were to go below the first support level, is at 1.0840. This level has served as a support level for the price in the past and is also an overlap support.

However, if the price were to increase, the second resistance level would be at 1.1060. Since it has previously served as a level of resistance for the price, this level is a swing high resistance, which means that if the price were to approach it, it might offer powerful opposition.

There is an intermediate resistance level at 1.0990 if the price were to pass through the first resistance level. Prior to reaching the second resistance level, the price may encounter opposition at this overlap resistance level.

AUDUSD

The red bar on the AUD/USD chart indicates that prices could drop further. As a result, it is anticipated that the price may drop after making a bearish breach off the first support level at 0.6690, moving in the direction of the second support level at 0.6550.  

The initial support level is at 0.6500, which is seen favourably and acts as a support. It overlaps with the 78.60% Fibonacci projection level. This support level is crucial for traders since it has traditionally attracted buying action.

The second level of support, a multi-swing low support, is located at 0.6634. This level has previously attracted interest from buyers and may provide as additional support if the price declines even further.

The initial resistance level, which is an overlap barrier and corresponds with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, is at 0.6785. In the past, there has been a lot of selling interest around this level.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the second resistance level are both at 0.6880, which is a pullback resistance. This resistance level is crucial because it can serve as a barrier to any price increases.

USDJPY

On the USD/JPY chart, the price is currently above a crucial ascending trend line and on an ascending trend line that acts as support, suggesting that additional upward momentum is expected. It is therefore expected that the price will eventually continue to rise in the direction of the first resistance level at 135.10. 

Since it crosses over another level of support and falls at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the original level of support at 133.42 is seen favourably. Given that it has historically drawn purchasing activity, this support level is essential for traders.

The second support level is at 132.00, although it is not explained why it is thought to be strong. However, if the price continues to decline, this level may provide as additional support.

The initial resistance level, which is an overlap resistance, is at 135.10 in terms of levels of resistance. A breakout above this level might start a bullish momentum that could continue as this level has historically been a big region of selling interest.

The second resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance, is located at 138.00. The initial resistance level may potentially operate as an additional barrier to price increases if the price were to break above it.

HANG SENG

Hang Seng chart suggests that prices might keep falling. It is therefore expected that the price may make a likely negative move in the direction of the first support level at 19331. 

The 19331 level serves as the initial support level and is seen favourably since it crosses over the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level and serves as a support. If the price decrease persists, this support level may operate as another support level because it has traditionally drawn buying activity.

The second support level, a pullback support, is located at 18835, which also happens to be the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level. This level has previously drawn interest from buyers and could serve as additional support if the price continues to decline.

The first resistance level, which is also a multi-swing high resistance, is located at 19892. This level has historically seen a lot of selling activity and might potentially function as resistance to price increases.

The second resistance level, which is similarly a multi-swing high resistance, is located at 20856. This resistance level is crucial because it can serve as a barrier to any price increases.

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI may continue its downward trend towards the first support.

The price is currently below a significant falling trend line, which is one of the elements contributing to the WTI chart’s current bearish momentum. It implies that further bearish momentum is imminent.

Price might likely make a negative move towards the first support at 76.78 if it maintains its current momentum. Given that it lines up with a swing low support and a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, this level is a strong support.

The second support at 73.46 may be reached if the price were to break through the first level, though. This level serves as a pullback support, making it a strong support as well. 

The fist resistance level is at 79.24 if it breaches it then price can rise up to second resistance level which is multi swing high at 83.00

GOLD

Technical analysis indicates that the gold chart has been trending downward lately. The price is most likely to have a negative reaction off the first resistance level and drop to the first support level, according to the chart.

1966.60, a multi-swing low support and 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level, serves as the first support level. This level has historically demonstrated significant support and might do so once more. The next support level, which is also a multi-swing low support and a 78.60% Fibonacci projection level, is at 1917.94 if the price drops below this level.

On the other hand, the initial resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance level, is located at 2002.28. This level has historically served as resistance and is expected to do so again. The next resistance level is at 2046.28, which is a multi-swing high resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, if the price breaks above this level.

LITECOIN

LTC/USD Momentum Is Still Bullish, but It May Reverse From First Support  

Since the price is currently above a strong ascending trend line and is expected to remain above it, the overall momentum for LTC/USD is still good.   

LTC/USD could make a positive bounce off the first support and then move in the direction of the first resistance.  

To watch for a potential bounce, it is helpful to monitor the initial support level, which is 84.00. Currently, a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and the overlap support level are congruent.

Price movement could move upward towards the first resistance at 91.57 if it bounces off this support level. This level is an important one to watch since it acts as a pullback resistance and coincides with a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.

If the first support level is broken, the price may fall towards the second support at 78.25. This level is important since it also functions as an overlap support.

On the other hand, if the price can go past the first level of resistance, it may move up towards the second level of resistance at 98.09 A significant level of resistance, this level represents a pullback resistance that coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.