Australian Dollar (AUD) Under Pressure as Inflation Declines: RBA Eyes Further Tightening.

Introduction

In today’s bustling financial markets, the Nasdaq took the lead, surging 0.61% on the back of impressive Google earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P recorded a gain of 0.28%, and the Dow inched up by 0.08%. These gains come just before the Federal Reserve Bank’s highly anticipated rate hike. Let’s explore the latest updates in the market and what investors can expect in the coming sessions.

The Fed Rate Meeting: A Focus on Market Reaction.

The Federal Reserve Rate meeting is at the forefront of investors’ minds. While the actual rate announcement is no longer the central point of interest, as the 25 basis points are already committed, market reaction to the statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference will dictate market movements. The prevailing sentiment suggests this could be the final rate increase of the year. A more hawkish message from Powell might trigger significant corrections in the dollar and equity markets.

Asia Session: Australian CPI Declines, Dollar Index Holds Steady.

During the Asia session, Australia’s CPI decreased from 5.5% in May to 5.4% YoY in June, putting pressure on the Australian dollar. Simultaneously, the dollar index (DXY) traded at 101.20, retracing to 0.6765 after reaching as low as 0.6730. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s decisions, which could impact the global market dynamics.

Europe & US Session: FOMC Statement and Press Conference.

The FOMC statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference will be the highlight of the Europe and US sessions. Volatility is expected across major currency pairs during this period. The Europe session might seem calm, but a sudden shift could occur in the final minutes of the US session, based on the Fed’s announcements.

The Dollar Index (DXY): Expectations Amid Disinflationary Trends.

Despite strong disinflationary trends, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching 5.5%. Chairman Jerome Powell and the FOMC members see no reason to suspend rate hikes, as the labor market remains resilient, driving consumer spending. The committee’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target and adjusting monetary policy if necessary will shape market sentiment.

The Australian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Declines Impact on AUD.

Australia’s inflation rate has been on a steady decline, falling from 8.4% YoY in December to 5.4% in June. With the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate hike, the Australian dollar faces further pressure. The RBA has already raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%, but they may consider further tightening if needed.

Gold (XAU): Volatility Expected Amidst FOMC Announcements

Gold prices are anticipated to experience volatility during the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference. Demand for the US dollar will likely influence the precious metals price movements, which could fluctuate throughout the day.

Global Market Overview

Here’s a brief snapshot of global market performances:

Asian Stock Markets:

• Nikkei: Down 0.04%
• Shanghai Composite: Down 0.42%
• Hang Seng: Down 0.44%
• ASX: Up 0.85%

European Equities:

• DAX futures: Up 0.13%
• CAC 40: Down 0.16%
• FTSE: Up 0.17%

US Stock Market:

• Dow Jones: Up 0.08%
• S&P 500: Up 0.28%
• Nasdaq 100: Up 0.61%

Commodities:

• Gold: $1,970.98 (+0.26%)
• Silver: $24.69 (+0.01%)
• Brent Oil: $82.89 (-0.44%)
• WTI Oil: $79.28 (-0.45%)

Key News Events for the Next 24 Hours

• (AUD) CPI (QoQ) (Q2) Actual 0.8%, Forecast 1.0%, Previous 1.4% at 07:00
• (USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.440M, Previous 1.496M at 17:30
• (USD) New Home Sales (Jun) Forecast 725K, Previous 763K at 19:30
• (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.50%, Previous 5.25% at 23:30
• (USD) FOMC Statement at 23:30

Forex Trading Analysis: GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, and More

GBPUSD – British Pound to US Dollar

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2888, suggesting a Buy sentiment.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2896, reinforcing a Buy indication.
• EMA 50: With a value of 1.2877, the 50-day EMA aligns with a Buy recommendation.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2877, indicating a Buy sentiment.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2896, supporting a Buy stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2896, signifying a Buy indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 50.43, suggesting a Buy signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2913.
• Support: The support level is observed at 1.2862.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2940
• Take Profit: 1.3025
• Stop Loss: 1.2884

EURUSD – Euro to US Dollar

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.1064, indicating a Buy signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 1.1107, signaling a Sell sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1.1076, suggesting a Sell indication.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1.1058, reinforcing the Buy recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 1.1142, the 20-day SMA also supports a Sell sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 1.1071, affirming a Sell indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 39.46, signifying a negative signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Positive stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1.1086.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1.1038.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of EURUSD points towards a Sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.1019
• Take Profit: 1.0967
• Stop Loss: 1.1057

AUDUSD – Australian Dollar to US Dollar

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 0.6764, indicating a Buy signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 0.6767, signaling a Buy sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 0.6752, suggesting a Buy indication.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 0.6768, reinforcing the Sell recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 0.6773, the 20-day SMA also supports a Sell sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 0.6743, affirming a Buy indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 50.53, signifying a Bullish signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 0.6778.
• Support: The support level is identified at 0.6748.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of AUDUSD points towards a Buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 0.6791
• Take Profit: 0.6838
• Stop Loss: 0.6758

USDJPY – US Dollar to Japanese Yen

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 140.88, indicating a Sell signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 140.56, signaling a Sell sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 140.76, suggesting a Sell indication.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 140.99, reinforcing the Sell recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 140.25, the 20-day SMA also supports a Buy sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 140.90, affirming a Sell indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 44.65, signifying a Neutral signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 141.26.
• Support: The support level is identified at 140.37.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of USDJPY points towards a Sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 140.01
• Take Profit: 138.90
• Stop Loss: 140.96

NASDAQ 100

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 15645.37, indicating a Buy signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 15652.06, signaling a Buy sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 15528.27, suggesting a Buy indication.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 15638.52, reinforcing the Buy recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 15726.29, the 20-day SMA also supports a Sell sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 15525.97, affirming a Buy indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 51.93, signifying a positive signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Positive stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 15736.51.
• Support: The support level is identified at 15590.96.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 points towards a Buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 15788.49
• Take Profit: 15943.57
• Stop Loss: 15673.86

WTI CRUDE OIL

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 78.66, indicating a Buy signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 77.07, signaling a Buy sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 75.17, suggesting a Buy indication.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 78.76, reinforcing the Buy recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 76.70 the 20-day SMA also supports a Buy sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 74.89, affirming a Buy indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 71.78, signifying a Buy signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 79.49.
• Support: The support level is identified at 77.75.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of WTI Crude Oil points toward a Buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 80.75
• Take Profit: 83.36
• Stop Loss: 78.91

GOLD – Gold Spot Price

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1965.39, indicating a Buy signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 1962.99, signaling a Buy sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1953.45, suggesting a Buy indication.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1963.88, reinforcing the Buy recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 1967.91, the 20-day SMA also supports a Buy sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 1947.79 affirming a Buy indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 58.59, signifying a Buy signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Positive stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1972.70.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1963.39.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of gold points towards a Buy sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1982.03
• Take Profit: 2011.16
• Stop Loss: 1960.84

ETHEREUM

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1872.96, indicating a Sell signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 1891.26, signaling a Sell sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1899.37, suggesting a Sell indication.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1877.30, reinforcing the Sell recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 1892.81, the 20-day SMA also supports a Sell sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 1909.42, affirming a Sell indication.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 38.82, signifying a Sell signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1904.25.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1845.53.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of Ethereum points towards a Sell sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1811.71
• Take Profit: 1733.64
• Stop Loss: 1881.11