FUNDAMENTAL REPORT FORECAST 

MARKET UPDATE:

Strong Microsoft Corp results helped technology shares on the tech-heavy Nasdaq settle slightly higher on Wednesday, but the S&P 500 and the Dow declined due to ongoing worries about the banking industry and the U.S. economy.

“The market is seeking guidance on the direction that the business world and economy are taking. Although there have been some positive earnings announcements, investors are realising that they are insufficient for defining the future course, according to Lisa Erickson, head of public markets at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.

Investors are anticipating additional earnings reports, a significant inflation data on Friday, and the Federal Reserve meeting the following week.

The fact that exports and new orders for major capital goods produced in the United States fell more than anticipated in March indicates that business investment in equipment probably continued to be a drag on first-quarter economic growth. Even still, earnings projections became much more hopeful following Tuesday evening’s upbeat data, with analysts now seeing a 3.2% fall in first-quarter profits for S&P 500 businesses vs just a 3.9% decline on Tuesday.

After the institution reported declining deposits earlier this week, investors were alarmed by a morning rumour that the U.S. government was unwilling to organise its rescue.

Additionally, according to Bloomberg News, American bank authorities were considering reducing their private ratings of First Republic, which might limit the amount of money the company borrowed from the Fed. Shares of the bank have decreased 96.1% so far this year.

What happened in the Asia Session?

NZD demand may decline because of the ANZ Business Confidence index for New Zealand dropping from its previous level of -43.4 to -43.8. Australia’s Import Prices q/q data came in at -4.2%, much lower than the expected reading of 0.4% and the prior reading of 1.8%. Due to the lower price of imported items, this change might cause AUD demand to decline.

What does it mean for the Europe & US Session?

The EUR/USD pair may retest the level of 1.1100 in response to positive Eurozone data, as the USD is anticipated to suffer in the wake of weaker Advance GDP q/q and rising Unemployment Claims.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Advance GDP q/q

Unemployment Claims 

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US economy will soon get the releases of Advance GDP q/q, which is expected to come in at 2.0% (up from 2.6%), and Unemployment Claims, which is expected to come in at 247K (up from 245K). A lower GDP estimate might have a negative effect on the US dollar’s value, and a rise in jobless claims could indicate a worse labour market, which would also be bad for the currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The US banking system is sound and resilient, but recent developments may result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses.
• The Federal Reserve has raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 per cent, committed to returning inflation to its 2 per cent objective.
• In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will consider various factors, including the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and economic and financial developments.
• Next meeting is on 3 May 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Spanish Unemployment Rate, which had a previous rate of 12.9% and is expected to have a rate of 13.0%, is one of the upcoming data releases for the Eurozone. This figure indicates a minor increase in unemployment in Spain. The EUR may be negatively impacted because of this.

Central Bank Notes:

• ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points to ensure the 2% inflation target is met
• Inflation is projected to average 5.3% in 2023, with growth at 1%, and underlying price pressures remain strong
• The bank will continue to monitor market tensions closely and will be data-dependent in its policy rate decisions
• Next meeting on 4 May 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

According to the BOC Summary of Deliberations, the BOC Governing Council debated whether to raise interest rates on April 12 or wait for additional proof. The council did concur that a rate drops later in 2023 was not the most likely outcome given market expectations. The cautious stance taken by the BOC indicates that the short-term outlook for the CAD price is one of stability.

Central Bank Notes:

• Bank of Canada holds its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%
• Labour markets remain tight with persistent price pressures, especially for services
• Economic growth in Q1 looks to be stronger than projected; to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year
• Prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.
• Next meeting on 7 June 2023

Next 24 Hours Bias

Mixed

Global Markets:

Asian Stock Markets: Nikkei up 0.15%, Shanghai Composite up 0.67%, Hang Seng up 0.42%, ASX down 0.32%

European equities, the DAX futures up 0.06%, CAC 40 up 0.34%, FTSE down 0.02%.

US Stock Market: Dow jones down 0.68%, S&P 500 down at 0.38%, Nasdaq 100 down at 1.52%.            

Commodities: Gold at $2000.24 (+0.52%), Silver at $25.03 (+0.62%), Brent Oil at $77.94 (+0.27%), WTI Oil at $74.44 (+0.19%)

News & Data

• (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 248K, Previous 245K at 18:00
• (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 2.0%, Previous 2.6% at 18:00
• (USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.8% at 18:00
• (EUR) ECB`s Panetta Speaks at 21:45

 Technical Outlook

GBPUSD

There is currently bullish momentum visible on the GBP/USD chart, and the price may increase further towards the first resistance level. The initial support level, which is an overlap support and is located at 1.2403, has withstood numerous tests in the past. The second support level, at 1.2339, likewise shows a good level of historical support and is an overlap support.

The initial resistance level is located at 1.2546 and coincides with a swing high resistance as well as a 100% Fibonacci projection. If the price manages to break through this resistance, it could rise towards the second resistance level at 1.2598. Along with being a swing high resistance level, this level also corresponds to a 127.20% Fibonacci extension.

There is a middle resistance at 1.2503 located between these two resistance levels. This level has served as a significant resistance level in the past when it has been tested numerous times.

EURUSD

Given that it is in a bullish ascending channel, the EUR/USD is displaying bullish momentum. This means that given its bullish trend, the price may continue to rise. A bullish breakthrough of the first resistance and ascent to the second resistance are currently possible.

The first support, a multi-swing low support, is located at 1.0949. The second support, which is an overlap support, is located at 1.0911.

The first resistance, on the other hand, is at 1.1070 and has a swing high resistance with a Fibonacci projection of 78.60%. The second barrier is located at 1.1129 and is at the Fibonacci extension of 161.80%.

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD chart’s overall momentum is negative, and the price may continue to fall towards the first support level. The current multi-swing low support for the pair is at 0.6567, which is a strong level of support because it is also supported by the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension.

If the first support level is broken, the pair may fall to the second support level at 0.6511, which is strengthened by the Fibonacci extension of 161.80%, which gives this level of support even more support.

On the other hand, if the pair can move higher, it might run into an overlap resistance at 0.6622, which would be its first resistance level. If this level is broken, there is a chance that there will be a pullback towards the second resistance level at 0.6679, which is supported even more by the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement.

The multi-swing low support level at the intermediate support level of 0.6593 may provide a little reprieve for the pair in the interim.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting bearish momentum as it stays inside of a falling channel, indicating that price may continue to decline because of this momentum. Price is also below a significant declining trend line, adding to the indication of negative momentum.

The first support at 132.2100, a multi-swing low support and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, is a possible target for a bearish continuation. Price could potentially drop to the second support at 130.5400, which is an overlap support and corresponds with a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, if it breaks below this level.

On the other side, the first resistance, which is an overlap resistance, is located at 133.7200. Price could perhaps increase to the second resistance at 135.1100, a multi-swing high resistance, if it is able to break over this level.

DOW JONES

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30) has been trending downward, and price action may soon depart from the first support and move towards the second support. The price is below a significant falling trend line, indicating that bearish momentum is expected, and the overall momentum of the chart is bearish.

The multi-swing low support level at 33291.17, which also serves as the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, serves as the DJ30’s initial support. This level has historically served as support, so it’s a good one to keep an eye on for prospective buying chances. The second support, at 32964.81, which is a pullback support level and corresponds with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, could be reached if the stock breaks below this level of support.

The initial resistance level on the resistance side is an overlap level and is located at 33567.69. This pricing point can serve as a roadblock to the price increasing. The second resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance level at 33860.94, could be reached by the price if it is able to go through this one.

WTI CRUDE OIL

The WTI price is currently declining and may do so until it reaches the first support level.

The first support level, which has a substantial overlap, is located at 73.26. The next support level, which is a pullback support level at 70.46, is reached if the price breaches this level.

On the other side, the first resistance level, which is a significant overlap resistance level, is located at 77.12. At 78.87, another overlap resistance level, the price may encounter resistance if it were to increase.

At 73.26, a pullback support level, there is an intermediate support level. Price may fall towards the second support level at 70.46 if it were to breach this intermediate support.

SILVER

Technical analysis indicates that the silver chart has been trending downward lately. The price is most likely to have a negative reaction off the first resistance level and drop to the first support level, according to the chart.

24.44, a multi-swing low support and 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level, serves as the first support level. This level has historically demonstrated significant support and might do so once more. The next support level, which is also a multi-swing low support and a 78.60% Fibonacci projection level, is at 23.78 if the price drops below this level.

On the other hand, the initial resistance level, which is also an overlap resistance level, is located at 25.28. This level has historically served as resistance and is expected to do so again. The next resistance level is at 26.04, which is a multi-swing high resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, if the price breaks above this level.

ETHEREUM

The ETH/USD chart’s overall momentum is now neutral, indicating that there is no discernible trend direction. As a result, there is a chance that the price will sway between important support and resistance levels soon.

The first level of support is a multi-swing low support located at 1801.70 This price point can spark some interest in purchasing and raise prices. The next support level, which overlaps with the first support level and is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, is at 1724.11 if the first support level fails to hold. This level has historically served as a reliable support and may draw buyers if the price falls approaching it.

On the other hand, the initial resistance level, which is an overlap resistance, is located at 1945.78. Price can go bullishly towards the second resistance level at 2060.16 if it succeeds to break through this level. The 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level and this level act as pullback resistance.