Ahead of Inflation Data, Market Sentiment Mixed

Introduction

In anticipation of today’s release of the PCE Inflation report, the US stock markets experienced a mixed day of trading. While the S&P saw a rise of 0.45%, the Nasdaq ended the day nearly flat, and the Dow set the pace with a closing increase of 0.8%. The performance of the markets remains influenced by various factors, including positive US data and the hawkish language from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Asia Session: Assessing Economic Health

China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Statistics

Asian investors are closely monitoring China as they await the release of Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) statistics. These figures will provide valuable insights into the health of the world’s second-largest economy. A strong performance in these sectors may positively impact market sentiment.

Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence

In Japan, retail sales have surpassed expectations, showing a year-over-year increase of 5.7%. Additionally, consumer confidence remains stable at 36.2. These indicators suggest a potential strengthening of the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, business confidence has improved from -31.1 to -18.0, which could provide support for the New Zealand Dollar. Australia also experienced a boost in retail sales, surpassing the anticipated 0.1% increase with a monthly rise of 0.7%, supporting the Australian Dollar.

Europe & US Session: Focus on Key Data

D XY’s Ascent and Impact on US Economic Releases

Currently, the Dollar Index (DXY) is striving to reach its recent intra-day high of around 102.80. A positive outcome from the US Final GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims data releases may further strengthen the bullish sentiment. The bulls may target the 103.00 level and potentially reach 103.30. On the other hand, maintaining support at 102.50 would confirm the bullish scenario.

Key News Events Today

• Final GDP q/q
• Unemployment Claims

DXY Expectations

The Final GDP q/q figure, anticipated to expand by 1.4%, signals potential economic growth compared to the previous figure of 1.3%. Meeting or exceeding expectations could lead to a favorable reaction from investors and strengthen the US Dollar. Additionally, the Unemployment Claims statistics are expected to remain at 264K, indicating a stable labor market that may not have a negative impact on the USD.

Swiss Franc: Monitoring Key Data Releases

The Swiss Franc’s value may be affected by upcoming data releases. Although no major news events are scheduled for today, the direction of CHF prices could be influenced by future data. The year-over-year retail sales data is predicted to show a decrease of -2.5%, following a previous decline of -3.7%. The KOF Economic Barometer forecast of 89.1, slightly lower than the previous reading of 90.2, indicates a potential downward trend in retail sales and a slowdown in economic growth. These factors may have an adverse impact on the Swiss Franc.

Central Bank Notes

• SNB has tightened its monetary policy, raising the SNB policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75%.
• The new inflation forecast predicts average annual inflation at 2.2% for 2023 and 2024 and 2.1% for 2025.
• SNB projects modest growth for the year due to subdued foreign demand, inflation’s impact on purchasing power, and stricter financial conditions. GDP growth is estimated to be around 1% for this year.

Oil Market Outlook

The recent data on crude oil inventories reveal a significant decline of -9.6 million barrels, surpassing both the predicted -1.4 million and the previous -3.8 million declines. This substantial decrease may lead to increased oil prices. Consequently, businesses reliant on oil may experience higher operating expenses, and energy inventories could see a rise. It’s important to note that these developments could contribute to inflationary pressures.

Global Market Overview

Asian Stock Markets

• Nikkei: Up 0.19%
• Shanghai Composite: Up 0.74%
• Hang Seng: Down 0.06%
• ASX: Up 0.15%

European Equities

• DAX futures: Down 0.01%
• CAC 40: Up 0.36%
• FTSE: Down 0.38%

US Stock Market

• Dow Jones: Down 0.37%
• S&P 500: Down 0.65%
• Nasdaq 100: Down 0.73%

Commodities

• Gold: $1904.64 (-0.15%)
• Silver: $22.52 (-0.15%)
• Brent Oil: $74.86 (+0.16%)
• WTI Oil: $69.89 (+0.04%)

Key News & Data

• (CNY) Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual 49.0, Forecast 49.0, Previous 48.8 at 07:00
• (GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Actual 0.1%, Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.1% at 11:30
• (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q1): Actual 0.2%, Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.6% at 11:30
• (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Jun): Forecast 13K, Previous 9K at 13:25
• (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Jun): Forecast 5.6%, Previous 6.1% at 14:30
• (USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 18:00
• (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Apr): Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.0% at 18:00

GBP/USD: Bearish Momentum Points to Downward Trend

Summary: The GBP/USD chart currently indicates a bearish momentum, signaling a downward trend in the market. If the price breaks below the first intermediate support level at 1.2615, it is likely to continue moving downward toward the first support level at 1.2599, which is a significant overlap support.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Potential for Downward Movement

The bearish momentum observed on the GBP/USD chart suggests a market bias towards the downside. Traders should pay attention to key levels that may influence the price movement.

Support Levels

• First Support Level (1.2599): This level serves as crucial overlap support and may provide additional strength to the downward trend if breached.
• Second Support Level (1.2583): Positioned at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, this support level offers further reinforcement to the bearish sentiment.

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level (1.2626): Acting as an overlap resistance on the upside, this level could impede price growth.
• Second Resistance Level (1.2645): Representing another overlap resistance, this level adds to the potential resistance faced by the currency pair.

Trade Suggestion

To capitalize on the bearish outlook of GBP/USD, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

SELL AT 1.2619, TP AT 1.2610, SL AT 1.2629

By carefully monitoring the price action and considering the levels of support and resistance, traders can make informed decisions to navigate the market successfully.

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EUR/USD: Bearish Momentum Suggests Downward Bias

Summary: The EUR/USD chart currently displays bearish momentum, indicating a market inclination towards the downside. Traders should closely monitor the first support level at 1.0847, which is an important overlap support and a potential target for the ongoing downward trend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Market Bias and Support Levels

The current bearish momentum on the EUR/USD chart implies a negative outlook for the currency pair. Here are the key support levels to consider:

• First Support Level (1.0847): This level holds significance as an overlap support and represents a potential target for the downward movement.
• Second Support Level (1.0789): Aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, this support level offers additional reinforcement to the bearish sentiment.

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level (1.0911): Positioned as an overlap resistance on the upside, this level may hinder price growth.
• Second Resistance Level (1.1099): Coinciding with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement, this resistance level presents a notable barrier for upward movement.

Trade Suggestion

To capitalize on the bearish momentum of EUR/USD, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

SELL AT 1.0839, TP AT 1.0814, SL AT 1.0858

By carefully analyzing the support and resistance levels, traders can make well-informed decisions and enhance their trading strategies.

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AUD/USD: Positive Momentum Indicates Potential Upside

Summary: The AUD/USD chart currently exhibits positive momentum, suggesting a possibility of further price increases toward the first resistance level. Notable support levels are the first support at 0.6568 and the second support at 0.6535, both characterized as overlap supports.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Positive Momentum and Support Levels

The current positive momentum observed on the AUD/USD chart indicates a favorable outlook for the currency pair. Traders should pay attention to the following support levels:

• First Support Level (0.6568): This support level is considered of good quality due to its overlap support features.
• Second Support Level (0.6535): Aligned with overlap support, this level holds significance in providing additional support to the price movement.

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level (0.6637): Positioned as the primary resistance level, this level is regarded favorably as an overlap resistance.
• Second Resistance Level (0.6707): Coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, this resistance level represents an additional barrier to price advancement.

Trade Suggestion

To capitalize on the positive momentum of AUD/USD, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

BUY AT 0.6619, TP AT 0.6637, SL AT 0.6605

By carefully analyzing the support and resistance levels, traders can make informed trading decisions and potentially maximize their gains in the market.

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USD/JPY: Bullish Momentum Signals Potential Upside

Summary: The USD/JPY chart currently demonstrates bullish momentum within a positive ascending channel, suggesting the possibility of further upward movement. Notable resistance levels include the first resistance at 145.011 and the second resistance at 146.776, both serving as additional barriers.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Bullish Momentum and Resistance Levels

The ongoing bullish momentum on the USD/JPY chart indicates a positive trend for the currency pair. Here are the key resistance levels to consider:

• First Resistance Level (145.011): A bullish extension towards this level is conceivable and holds significance as a potential resistance.
• Second Resistance Level (146.776): Positioned at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, this level serves as an additional resistance level.

Support Levels

• First Support Level (143.846): Noted as an overlap support, this level provides considerable strength to the support zone.
• Second Support Level (142.772): Positioned as an overlap support, this level aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci projection.

Trade Suggestion

To capitalize on the bullish momentum of USD/JPY, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

BUY AT 144.80, TP AT 145.07, SL AT 144.58

By analyzing the support and resistance levels in conjunction with the bullish momentum, traders can make well-informed decisions to seize potential opportunities in the market.

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S&P 500: Strong Bullish Momentum on US500

Summary: The US500 (S&P 500) chart currently exhibits robust bullish momentum, indicating a favorable market outlook. Traders should closely monitor the first resistance level at 4396.52, which represents a notable barrier to price growth.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Strong Bullish Momentum

The S&P 500 chart shows a significant bullish momentum, suggesting a positive trend for the market. Here are the key levels to consider:

Support Levels

• First Support Level (4383.83): Positioned as an overlap support, this level is regarded as a significant support level.
• Second Support Level (4371.12): Aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, this support level adds further significance to the market sentiment.

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level (4396.52): Notable as an extremely high resistance, this level may hinder further price growth.
• Second Resistance Level (4408.78): Coinciding with the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension, this resistance level holds significance.

Trade Suggestion

To capitalize on the strong bullish momentum of the S&P 500, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

BUY AT 4396.53, TP AT 4411.50, SL AT 4384.74

By analyzing the support and resistance levels, traders can make well-informed decisions and potentially benefit from the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market.

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WTI CRUDE OIL: Weak Bullish Momentum on WTI

Summary: The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) chart currently displays weak bullish momentum, suggesting the possibility of the price rising beyond the first resistance level at 70.31 before retracing. Notable support levels include the first support at 67.70, which represents multi-swing low support.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Weak Bullish Momentum and Support Levels

The current weak bullish momentum observed on the WTI Crude Oil chart implies cautious optimism. Traders should consider the following support levels:

• First Support Level (67.70): Noted as multi-swing low support, this level is regarded favorably in providing price stability.
• Second Support Level (67.70): Positioned as an overlap support aligned with the 100% Fibonacci Projection, this level offers further support.

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level (70.31): Notable as multi-swing high resistance, this level may act as a barrier to further price advancement.
• Second Resistance Level (72.63): Similarly, positioned as a multi-swing high resistance, this level holds significance.

Trade Suggestion

To capitalize on the weak bullish momentum of WTI Crude Oil, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

BUY AT 70.54, TP AT 71.14, SL AT 70.08

By considering the support and resistance levels, traders can make well-informed decisions to navigate the market effectively.

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GOLD: Bearish Momentum Suggests Caution

Summary: The XAU/USD (Gold) chart currently exhibits a bearish momentum, indicating a challenging market outlook. Traders should be cautious of a potential bearish reversal off the first resistance level, with a possible move toward the first support level.

Gold Technical Analysis

Bearish Momentum and Support Levels

The bearish momentum observed on the Gold chart suggests a bleak prognosis for the market. Traders should pay attention to the following support levels:

• First Support Level (1903.92): Marked as an overlap support, this level may offer price stability.
• Second Support Level (1857.26): Aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement, this support level functions as additional support.

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level (1932.89): Positioned as an overlap resistance, this level coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement.
• Second Resistance Level (1971.50): Aligned with the 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement, this resistance level represents overlapping resistance.

Trade Suggestion

To navigate the bearish momentum of Gold, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

BUY AT 22.95, TP AT 23.21, SL AT 22.76

By carefully assessing the support and resistance levels, traders can make informed decisions and manage their positions effectively in the market.

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ETHEREUM: Strong Bullish Trend Indicates Potential Upside

Summary: The ETH/USD chart currently demonstrates a strong bullish trend with high confidence, implying a continued upward movement. Key support levels include the first support at 1830.85, characterized by its overlap support properties.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Strong Bullish Trend and Support Levels

The prevailing strong bullish trend on the ETH/USD chart suggests a positive outlook for Ethereum. Traders should consider the following support levels:

• First Support Level (1830.85): Noted as an overlap support, this level holds significance in providing stability to the price movement.
• Second Support Level (1748.53): Aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, this support level adds further reinforcement.

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level (1971.11): Positioned as an overlap resistance, this level may impede price growth.
• Second Resistance Level (2095.57): Coinciding with the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension, this resistance level holds significance.

Trade Suggestion

To capitalize on the strong bullish trend of Ethereum, traders may consider the following trade suggestion:

BUY AT 1942.15, TP AT 1971.11, SL AT 1916.62

By analyzing the support and resistance levels, traders can make well-informed decisions and potentially benefit from the upward momentum in the Ethereum market.