Weekly Global Markets Technical Analysis Report – 16 May 2021

Global Markets Technical Analysis

Weekly Global Markets Technical Analysis Report – 16 May 2021

Australia Retail Sales MoM

 WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

9th  May 2021                                                AUD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

U.S. JOLTs Job Openings

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

11th  MAY 2021                                                   USD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses’ employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations.

JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is “open” only if it meets all three of the following conditions:

1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.

2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time.

3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

11th May 2021                                                  GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey (Mar 2020 – Mar 2028) is to speak. As head of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which controls short term interest rates, Bailey has more influence over sterling’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy. His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.

Gold Gains for 2nd Week, But $1850 Remains Elusive

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED

Gold longs are still waiting at the $1,850 altar, but their search for suitors at that level ended in vain for a second week in a row.

That, however, did not stop believers in the yellow metal from posting a 0.8% at Friday’s close and a 0.3% rise on the week. It was, in fact, a second straight positive week for gold after last week’s 3.3% rally that proved its best since the final week of October.

Benchmark Gold Futures on New York’s Comex settled at $1,838.10, up $14.10 on the day and $6.15 on the week.

The Spot Price of gold was at $1,842.87 by 3:41 PM ET (19:41).

Traders and fund managers sometimes decide on the direction for gold by looking at the spot price — which reflects bullion for prompt delivery — instead of the futures.

Gold longs have had an interesting couple of weeks after arguments about runaway inflation in the U.S. were reignited by a raft of data on consumer and producer prices, industrial production and consumer sentiment.

Oil up 3rd Week in Row After Swings on Pipeline Saga, Gasoline & India

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BRENT & WTI CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED:  

It’s been a volatile week for oil as the Colonial Pipeline saga and the associated boom-bust-boom in gasoline from that played against the backdrop of India’s festering Covid situation. 

With Friday’s settlement, the bulls in crude could heave a sigh of relief: It was another winning week. In fact, the third in a row.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled at $65.37, up $1.55, or 2.4%. The rally helped offset a chunk of Thursday’s 3.4% drop — which was WTI’s worst one-day decline since April 5. 

For the week, the U.S. crude benchmark gained 0.7%, adding to last week’s 2.1% advance and the prior week’s 2.3% rise.

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for crude, hovered at $68.68 by 2:45 PM ET (18:45 GMT), up $1.63, or 2.4%, on the day. Brent dropped 3.3% in the previous session, also its most since April 5.

For the week, the global crude benchmark showed a gain of 0.6%, adding to last week’s 1.5% advance and the prior week’s 1.7% rise.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

China Industrial Production YoY

 WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

16th May 2021                                         CNY and its subsequent pairs                                                                   

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.  

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

     WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

11th May 2021                                       EUR and its subsequent pairs   

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision.

More dovish than expected minutes could be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while more hawkish than expected minutes could be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

20th May  2021                                                  USD  and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

U.K. Retail Sales MoM

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

21th May 2021                                                  GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                             Pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

21th May 2021                                                    EUR  and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.    

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Walmart(WMT) to announce its Quarterly Results on 18th May 2021, EPS estimated to 1.21 per share while revenue estimated 131.79B 

2. Cisco(CSCO) to announce its Quarterly Results on 19th  May 2021, EPS estimated to 0.8204 per share while revenue estimated 12.57B.

3.National Grid (NG)  to announce its Quarterly Results on 20th May 2021, EPS estimated to 0.8204 per share while revenue estimated 8,077M

4. Nufarm(NUF) to announce its Quarterly Results on 20th May 2021, EPS estimated to 1.00  per share while revenue estimated 1,412 M.

5. Deere & Company (DE) to announce its Quarterly Results on 21st May 2021, EPS estimated to 4.47 per share while revenue estimated 10.53B.

     TOP CURRENCIES IN THE UPCOMING  WEEK

EUR/USD 

technical analysis

EUR/USD is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

 GBP/USD

technical analysis

GBP/USD is trading in a Upward channel, the  Upside can be seen in the coming days

USD/JPY

technical analysis

USD/JPY is trading in an Upward channel, the Upside can be seen in the coming days.

TOP INDEX TO WATCH OUT

S&P 500

technical analysis

S&P 500 is trading in a Upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

CAC 40 

technical analysis

CAC 40 is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

DAX 30

technical analysis

DAX 30 is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

TOP COMMODITIES TO WATCH OUT

SILVER

technical analysis

Silver is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

Brent Crude

technical analysis

Brent Crude is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

TOP CRYPTO -CURRENCIES TO WATCH OUT

Bitcoin

technical analysis

Bitcoin is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

RIPPLE

technical analysis

Ripple is trading in an upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

 DATA WATCH

technical analysis

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