. Weekly Commodity Analysis -Commodities soar, oil falters, gas dips.

Weekly Commodity Analysis -Commodities soar, oil falters, gas dips.

Weekly Commodity Analysis -Commodities soar, oil falters, gas dips.

09 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold price targets a bullish weekly close, reaching a new all-time high above $2,180 amidst several positive factors. The US Dollar weakens due to slower wage growth and a higher Unemployment Rate in February, causing a drop in US Treasury yields. Gold’s rally follows the dovish comments from Fed Powell, fostering investor confidence in imminent rate cuts. Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) nears its year-to-date high at $24.50, and Oil prices dipped 1% weekly, influenced by concerns over soft Chinese demand despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts. Natural Gas Futures slip on weak demand, with a small daily and weekly loss.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price sets for a bullish weekly close on higher US Unemployment Rate.

Gold price prints a fresh all-time high of above $2,180 amid multiple tailwinds. The US Dollar weakens on slower wage growth and a higher Unemployment Rate in February. US Treasury yields plunge as Fed Powell delivers a slight dovish guidance on interest rates. Gold price (XAU/USD) rallied to a fresh all-time high above $2,180 in Friday’s early New York session as yields on 10-year US bonds fell to 4.04% after the release of the US NFP data. A sharp slowdown in wage growth and a higher Unemployment Rate is expected to prompt market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting. The rally in the Gold price indicates that the slight dovish commentary from Fed Powell has built confidence among investors that rate cuts will be announced sooner. The expectations for the Fed reducing interest rates in the June policy meeting remain firm. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.5% in the March and May policy meetings.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2110.8702 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2078.4041 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2048.1144 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2095.0769 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2055.0055 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2042.1999 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 84.1252 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.0743 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2161.97 | Take Profit: 2184.77 | Stop Loss: 2148.77

SILVER

XAG/USD holds near YTD high around $24.50.

Silver inches closer to retesting its year-to-date high of $24.63, after marking a 0.86% increase. Technical dynamics suggest the potential for further gains if silver surpasses the $24.50 resistance. Downside risks loom if silver falls below $24.31, targeting supports at $24.00 and the March 6 low of $23.57.Silver’s price rallies, but it remains below the new year-to-date (YTD) high of $24.63. It reached earlier, posting gains of 0.86%, and traded at around $24.50 during the mid-North American session. Silver retreated during the day, below the March 7 daily close of $24.31, which could sponsor a leg down if sellers push the prices lower.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 23.76 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 23.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.16 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 23.59 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 23.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.92 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 68.24 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 99.07 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 24.37 R2 : 25.12
  • S1 : 23.86 S2 : 23.40

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 24.46 | Take Profit: 25.13 | Stop Loss: 24.09

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil dips 1%, posts weekly loss as markets weigh Chinese demand.

Oil prices closed 1% lower on Friday and fell even more for the week as markets remained wary of soft Chinese demand even as producer group OPEC+ extended supply cuts. Both benchmarks fell in the week, with Brent down 1.8% and WTI 2.5%. China’s imports of crude oil rose in the first two months of the year compared with the same period in 2023, but they were also weaker than the preceding months, data showed on Thursday, continuing a trend of softening purchases by the world’s biggest buyer. On the supply side, OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Sunday to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter, giving extra support to the market amid concerns over global growth and rising output outside the group.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.5720 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 82.2788 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.4291 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.7091 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 82.6577 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.5425 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.2734 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 49.7494 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 81.39 | Take Profit: 78.25 | Stop Loss: 83.95

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Slip on Weak Demand.

Natural gas futures post a small daily and weekly loss as weak demand outweighs the impact of lower production, adding to expectations of a growing supply surplus. The EIA reported lower demand in the week through March 6 for residential and commercial use, as well as in the industrial and power sectors. Deliveries to LNG export terminals fell, while pipeline exports to Mexico grew. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), there was a withdrawal of 40 billion cubic feet (cf) of gas from storage for the week ending March 1. This figure aligns with analyst predictions but falls short compared to the 72 bcf decrease in the same week last year and the five-year average decrease of 93 bcf. Consequently, current gas stockpiles are about 31% above the usual levels for this period. In the short term, with warmer weather and production curtailments, the market could face a bearish phase.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8172 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.8632 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0946 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8184 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7660 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2233 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.5638 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 59.0782 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.78 | Take Profit: 1.52 | Stop Loss: 1.95

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.89%) at 2178.97, Silver is down (0.02%) at 24.30, Palladium is down (1.79%) at 1020.30, Platinum is down (0.82%) at 909.00, Brent Crude Oil is down (1.10%) at 82.05, WTI Crude Oil down (1.37%) at 77.85 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Building Approvals (MoM) (Monday) (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Feb) (Tuesday) (GBP) Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jan) (Tuesday) (USD) CPI (MoM) (Feb) (Tuesday) (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) (Wednesday) (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Jan) (Wednesday) (EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) (Wednesday) (USD) Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday) (USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) (Thursday) (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) (Thursday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)