. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Dive into oil, gold market turbulence, OPEC+ decisions.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Dive into oil, gold market turbulence, OPEC+ decisions.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Dive into oil, gold market turbulence, OPEC+ decisions.

25 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the commodities market, In the commodities market, despite a weekly uptick, oil prices closed lower ahead of the OPEC+ decision. Gold, buoyed by a weakening dollar and lower Treasury yields, saw a slight increase, holding within the $1990-$2000 range. Meanwhile, silver reached a month-high, and copper showed resilience with positive indicators of Chinese demand, signalling a potentially favourable week.

Brent Crude Oil:

Despite a weekly increase, oil finishes lower ahead of the OPEC+ decision.

On Friday, oil prices declined following the release of some hostages in Gaza, which alleviated geopolitical risk concerns. However, despite this, prices recorded their first weekly gains in over a month in anticipation of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting next week, where decisions on production cuts for 2024 will be made.

Both contracts experienced their initial weekly increase in five weeks as OPEC+ gears up for a meeting where output cuts will be a key focus. This follows recent declines in oil prices due to apprehensions about demand and an increase in supply, especially from non-OPEC producers.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 81.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 82.51 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 84.66| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 80.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 82.26 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 86.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.66| Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator: 78.48 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 83.00 | R2: 86.36
  • S1: 79.98 | S2: 75.88

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 79.08 | Take Profit: 75.88 | Stop Loss: 81.37

Gold:

A weakening dollar and falling US Treasury yields maintain the stability of gold prices.

Today, gold prices witnessed a modest rise, as XAU/USD reached $1992 amid a pause in US markets for Thanksgiving, leading to reduced trading volumes. The precious metal found support from decreasing US Treasury yields and a weakening US dollar, consistently holding within the narrow range of $1990-$2000.

At the beginning of the week, gold briefly exceeded the $2000 threshold and has since maintained its proximity to that level. This occurs despite market participants preparing for the release of forthcoming S&P Global PMIs, which could indicate economic challenges and potentially influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

Investors are paying close attention to these developments as they can carry substantial implications for the price fluctuations of gold and other critical financial indicators.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1995.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1978.79| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1958.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1996.57| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1974.14| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1946.15 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.58 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 94.32| Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2006.79 | R2: 2047.29
  • S1: 1980.76 | S2: 1951.83

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2014.02 | Take Profit: 2047.29 | Stop Loss: 1996.67.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

During the latter part of Friday’s trade, XAG/USD reached $24.30, reaching the highest bids for Silver in almost a month. Copper prices among industrial metals rose little on Friday, but they were poised for a second positive week due to encouraging signs of Chinese demand and anticipations of tighter markets.

Gold down (0.05%) at 2002.10, Silver up (2.01%) at 24.30, Palladium up (2.58%) at 1072.00, Platinum up (1.92%) at 930.50, Brent Crude Oil down (1.46%) at 80.23, WTI Crude Oil down (2.50%) at 75.17 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release for Upcoming Week:

(USD) Building Permits (Monday).

(AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) (Monday).

(USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) (Tuesday)

(NZD) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Tuesday).

(EUR German CPI (MoM) (Nov) (Wednesday).

(USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (Wednesday).

(GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (Thursday)