. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold Dips Amid Rising Yields, Oil Ease.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold Dips Amid Rising Yields, Oil Ease.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold Dips Amid Rising Yields, Oil Ease.

29 Jun 2024

Introduction

Commodity prices experience mixed reactions. Gold initially rallied on disinflation hopes from US data but retreated due to rising bond yields. Copper faces potential downside pressure, while oil and natural gas ease on weak demand and rising production.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold dips as Fed rate cut speculation rises post-US PCE data.

Gold falls from daily highs, pressured by elevated US Treasury yields.May US PCE Index meets forecasts, fuels hope for 2024 Fed rate cuts.US 10-year yield hits 4.339%, a high since June 12; DXY at 105.80, down 0.08%.Gold prices retreated during Friday’s session after an inflation report revealed progress in the disinflationary process and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in 2024. Even though the golden metal jumped and hit a four-day high of $2,339, it retreated somewhat, with XAU/USD trading at $2,324, down 0.12%. Bullion prices seesawed after the announcement of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for May, which was aligned with estimates and painted an optimistic outlook for American consumers hit by higher prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2324.2346 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2328.3748 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2318.1777 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2325.7718 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2327.2020 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2337.0613 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.3881 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 34.3309 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2333.73 | Take Profit : 2304.93 | Stop Loss : 2357.89

COPPER

Copper is under selling pressure.

Price action in the base metal complex is staving off Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) selling pressure in Copper, however the higher selling trigger, now at $9,350/t, is becoming more of an entrenched risk for the red metal.Demand for base metals in China is weakening“Indeed, with our gauge of global commodity demand continuing to weaken, while depressed premiums and surging inventories in the Middle Kingdom argue against fundamental tightness, there are plenty of potential catalysts that could see prices ease further from here, particularly given still bloated money manager positioning.”“While the fundamental situation certainly looks promising in the years to come, the lack of evidence supporting current physical tightness can continue to see these money manager positions unwind.”

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.42 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 33.14 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.05 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.44 R2 : 4.64
  • S1 : 4.31 S2 : 4.14

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 4.39 | Take Profit : 4.18 | Stop Loss : 4.51

CRUDE OIL

Oil eases on weak US fuel demand, profit taking.

WTI falls back below $81.00 as bullish momentum gets snipped.US Crude Oil initially rallied on Friday, but quickly tumbled into familiar levels.The EIA noted that US Crude Oil production hit fresh highs in April.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rallied into a fresh eight-week high on Friday as broad-market risk appetite stepped higher, but investor sentiment moderated during the US market session, dragging Crude Oil prices into a fresh low for the day. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that despite a slight increase in overall fossil fuel demand, gasoline demand declined further and the US continues to see near-term highs in overall production output. Ongoing market hopes for a summertime increase in general Crude Oil demand continue to run aground on a rocky reality as consumer demand for fossil fuels consistently undershoots market forecasts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.7553 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.9055 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.5796 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.2038 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.7591 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.2779 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.4511 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 86.1413 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 80.49 | Take Profit : 82.71 | Stop Loss : 79.23

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas News Elevated Storage, Rising Output Levels Pose Bearish Outlook.

Natural gas futures trade flat, hovering around the critical $2.625 level, with potential for a bearish move.August Nymex natural gas futures rise briefly, driven by bullish fundamentals but fail to maintain momentum.Elevated storage levels and rising production suggest a bearish outlook for natural gas prices in the short term.A significant drop below this threshold could be imminent if production continues to rise and temperatures moderate, potentially confirming a bearish double top chart pattern.Given the high storage levels and rising production, the outlook for natural gas prices remains bearish in the short term. The market’s inability to break above recent highs suggests that any further cooling in weather patterns or continued production increases could drive prices below the critical $2.625 level, confirming a bearish trend.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.6674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6545 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4571 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7048 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.7155 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3978 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 44.8550 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 2.8798 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.68 | Take Profit : 2.48 | Stop Loss : 2.84

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.04%) at 2326.41, Silver up (0.49%) at 29.13, Palladium up (4.68%) at 970.38, Platinum up (0.79%) at 995.26, Brent Crude Oil down (0.61%) at 84.86, WTI Crude Oil down (0.39%) at 81.44 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) (Monday) (GBP) Manufacturing PMI (Jun) (Monday) (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Jun) (Monday) (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Jun)(Monday) (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Monday) (AUD) RBA Meeting Minutes (Monday) (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Jun) (Tuesday) (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at (Tuesday) (USD) JOLts Job Openings (May) (Tuesday) (GBP) Composite PMI (Jun) (Wednesday) (GBP) Service PMI (Jun) (Wednesday) (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) (Wednesday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Wednesday) (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) (Wednesday) (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Wednesday)