. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold dips, Copper rallies, Oil soars, Gas falters.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold dips, Copper rallies, Oil soars, Gas falters.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold dips, Copper rallies, Oil soars, Gas falters.

27 Jan 2024

Introduction

Gold (XAU/USD) closes the week with a slight dip, hovering just above $2,018, marking a 0.55% weekly loss. Key indicators show subdued buying momentum, reflecting a pause after December’s rally. Meanwhile, the USD’s recovery, driven by changing bets on the Federal Reserve, exerts downward pressure. Copper prices ease, but a strong week is expected amid China optimism. Oil settles at an eight-week high, fueled by robust U.S. economic growth and Chinese stimulus, while natural gas faces declines due to storage dynamics, production fluctuations, and lighter demand forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD trades mildly lower and closes a losing week after US PCE figures.

The XAU/USD experiences a slight decrease, holding slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback. Key indicators such as RSI and MACD demonstrate a subdued buying momentum, as bulls consolidate December’s rally. On Friday’s session, the XAU/USD was seen trading at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a 0.55% weekly loss. After reaching a level of $2,135 in December, buyers have been largely taking a pause, suggesting a neutral to a bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite some momentum observed in the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak. In addition, the USD recovery fueled by markets adjusting their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the US economy showing resilience is pushing the metal lower.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2024.17 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2028.83 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2019.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2024.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2032.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2029.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.09 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 25.67 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2023.48 | Take Profit: 1984.79 | Stop Loss: 2049.27

COPPER

Copper prices ease but are set for a strong week on China optimism.

Copper futures expiring in March fell 0.2% to $3.8617 a pound but were set to add over 2% this week after racing to three-week highs. Gains in copper were fueled chiefly by more monetary stimulus in top importer China, which helped quell concerns over a looming slowdown in demand. However, analysts still questioned just how much economic support more monetary stimulus would provide, given that China was grappling with a severe slowdown in consumer and business spending. A post-COVID economic rebound also failed to materialize in 2023 and kept sentiment towards China largely negative.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.80 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.81 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.84 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.80 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.81 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.45 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.81 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.88 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.80 S2 : 3.71

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3.79 | Take Profit: 3.89 | Stop Loss: 3.72

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil settles at its highest in nearly 8 weeks on strong economic growth.

Oil prices rose for a second week in a row and settled at their highest in nearly two months on Friday as positive U.S. economic growth and signs of Chinese stimulus boosted demand expectations, while Middle East supply concerns added support. Both benchmarks made weekly gains of more than 6%, marking their biggest weekly increase since the week ending Oct. 13 after the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Oil was also boosted earlier this week by a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. The depletion in inventories, especially around the WTI delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma and across the Midwest, could create a squeeze on nearby futures prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.39 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.81 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.62 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 67.01 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.36 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.33 | Take Profit: 84.91 | Stop Loss: 79.41

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Large Weekly Storage Drop Fails to Rally Prices.

Natural gas futures fall, continuing a two-week decline. A significant storage drop doesn’t boost natural gas prices. Weather forecasts suggest light national demand ahead. U.S. Natural Gas Futures Decline Amid Storage and Production Trends. Natural gas prices have shown volatility this winter, driven by fluctuating weather conditions and production levels. The U.S. natural gas market is currently facing downward pressure on prices due to a combination of storage dynamics, production fluctuations, and weather patterns.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.55 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.59 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.59 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.42 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 13.33 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.25 | Take Profit: 2.06 | Stop Loss: 2.39

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.13%) at 2017.92, Silver is down (0.45%) at 22.77, Palladium is up (2.13%) at 957.50, Platinum is up (3.09%) at 899.50, Brent Crude Oil is up (1.52%) at 83.68, WTI Crude Oil up (1.12%) at 78.23 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) (Monday) (EUR) German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (EUR) GDP(QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) (Tuesday) (AUD) CPI (QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Jan) (Wednesday) (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) (Wednesday) (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Nov) (Wednesday) (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Statement (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Press Conference (Wednesday)