. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold falters, silver rises, oil soars.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold falters, silver rises, oil soars.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold falters, silver rises, oil soars.

10 Feb 2024

Introduction

XAU/USD faces a 0.40% dip to $2,025, signaling a bearish sentiment. Despite soft CPI revisions, gold struggles for traction. Daily chart indicators show a bearish bias, while the four-hour chart suggests a consolidation of losses. Attention turns to next week’s US CPI figures for market direction. Silver (XAG/USD) sees a modest 0.15% gain, trading at $22.60, influenced by a weaker USD. Silver’s potential move toward $23.00 is hinted at, with indications of bottoming out between $22.15-$22.50. Meanwhile, oil prices rise 6% weekly due to Middle East concerns, while natural gas faces a bearish outlook amid ample supply and low demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD declines as bears gather traction ahead of US CPI.

The XAU/USD retreated to $2,025 on Friday, registering losses of 0.40% on the day. Despite soft CPI revisions, the metal failed to gather traction. Daily chart indicators hint at a bearish bias, with RSI’s negative slope and MACD’s rising red bars suggesting selling momentum. In the four-hour chart, indicators appear flat hinting at a consolidation of losses. In Friday’s session, the XAU/USD was observed at a trading level of $2,025, marking a dip of 0.40%. Focus is set on next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from January after the US downward revised the December figures, to continue placing their bets on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2032.3019 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2032.5195 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2024.8748 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2035.7342 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2030.0041 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2033.6970 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.9072 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 38.4197 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2022.31 | Take Profit: 1987.13 | Stop Loss: 2043.41

SILVER

XAG/USD sees slight gains amid a soft US Dollar.

Silver gains 0.15% to $22.60, buoyed by a softer USD despite higher Treasury yields.Indications of bottoming out between $22.15-$22.50, hinting at a potential move towards $23.00. Silver price prints minimal gains of 0.15% on Friday even though US Treasury bond yields climbed. Nevertheless, the Greenback remains down, a tailwind for Silver prices, which trade at $22.60 after jumping from a low of $22.37.The momentum lifts the white metal to the top end of its weekly range, around the $22.70 region during the first half of the European session, albeit lacks bullish conviction.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 23.18 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 23.18 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.00 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 50.09 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.19 R2 : 24.05
  • S1 : 22.16 S2 : 21.26

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 22.77 | Take Profit: 21.91 | Stop Loss: 23.32

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil settles up, notches weekly gain on tight supply, Middle East conflict.

Oil prices settled higher on Friday, up about 6% on a week-on-week basis, as worries about supply from the Middle East mounted and as reining outages tightened refined products markets. Oil futures rose throughout the week, buoyed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a Hamas ceasefire proposal on Wednesday. This week’s rise followed a 7% loss in the prior week. Crude futures were also supported by strength in gasoline and diesel prices as significant U.S. refinery downtime, both planned and unplanned, tightened product markets.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.2212 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.8538 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.9135 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.1524 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.9487 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.4694 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.9375 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 58.2956 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 83.08 | Take Profit: 87.53 | Stop Loss: 80.54

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Price Plunge on Ample Supply Ahead of EIA Report.

Natural gas futures decline due to high supply and mild weather.LNG plant outages negatively impact natural gas prices. Short-term outlook is bearish amid low demand and technical breakdown. U.S. natural gas futures dipped as traders awaited the government’s weekly storage report. With ample fuel in storage, rising output, and reduced gas flow to LNG export plants, futures are at a three-year low, breaching the $2 per mmBtu support level.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.1699 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3123 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4835 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.1708 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3786 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4774 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 28.9717 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.9020 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell: 1.99 | Take Profit: 1.79 | Stop Loss: 2.14

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.47%) at 2024.16, Silver is up (0.17%) at 22.59, Palladium is down (3.25%) at 859.55, Platinum is down (1.09%) at 875.33, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.42%) at 81.97, WTI Crude Oil up (0.50%) at 76.60 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 23:30 (Monday) (GBP) Average Earning Index +Bonus (dec) (Tuesday) (USD) CPI (MoM) (Jan) (Tuesday) (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) (Tuesday) (GBP) CPI (YoY) (Jan) (Wednesday) (EUR) GDP (YoY) (Q4) (Wednesday) (JPY) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Thursday) (AUD) Employment Change (Jan) (Thursday) (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q4) (Thursday) (GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Thursday) (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Dec) (Thursday) (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) (Thursday)