. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold fears, silver's rise, oil surprises, gas shocks.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold fears, silver’s rise, oil surprises, gas shocks.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold fears, silver’s rise, oil surprises, gas shocks.

16 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold prices stabilize ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, showing minimal movement in Asian trading. Concerns over potential signals of prolonged higher interest rates by the Fed, fueled by robust inflation data, weigh on gold, contributing to weekly losses. Meanwhile, Silver shines near year-to-date highs despite a stronger US dollar, while oil prices notch a 3% weekly gain amid tightening supply optimism. U.S. natural gas futures were putting in a mixed performance on Friday, reacting to a surprise report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the previous session.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices were steady before the Fed meeting.

Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Friday as stronger-than-expected inflation data spurred more fears that the Federal Reserve will signal higher-for-longer interest rates at an upcoming meeting. Gold prices were set for weekly losses after falling sharply from record highs hit on Monday. Pressure on the yellow metal came chiefly from growing angst over a Fed meeting next week, especially as consumer and producer inflation signals read stronger than expected for a third straight month. Bullion prices, on the other hand, were pressured by a stronger dollar. The greenback rose to an over one-week high after strong inflation readings this week, while traders also positioned for an upcoming Fed meeting.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2144.8337 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2112.6752 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2069.4920 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2156.1340 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2095.5182 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2053.8154 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 67.8220 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.8782 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2149.47 | Take Profit: 2174.47 | Stop Loss: 2134.77

SILVER

XAG/USD outshines Gold, near YTD highs despite high US yields.

Silver’s bullish streak leads above $25.00, defying broader market trends with over 1.40% gains. A new year-to-date high at $25.44 highlights XAG/USD’s resilience, with $26.00 now in sight as the next resistance. Should Silver retreat below $25.00, a move towards $24.50 and potentially $24.01 could unfold, testing buyer strength. Silver’s price shines on Friday and registers solid gains of more than 1.40%, shrugging off Gold’s two consecutive days of losses. It rises 1.52%, trading at $25.18 a troy ounce at the time of writing. XAG/USD advanced even though the Greenback remains strong, underpinned by high US Treasury bond yields.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.51 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 24.57 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 23.77 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.14 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 70.56 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.74 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 25.50 R2 : 26.13
  • S1 : 24.57 S2 : 23.71

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 24.44 | Take Profit: 25.48 | Stop Loss: 23.82

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil prices settle lower, but notch a 3% weekly gain on tighter supply optimism.

Oil prices notched a weekly gain Friday despite settling lower amid pressure from a rising dollar as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data stoked fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve at the central bank’s meeting next week. Still, crude prices gained more than 3% this week, after earlier climbing to their highest levels since November last year, as signs of improving U.S. demand and tightening fuel markets spurred strong gains through the week. A bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. inventories pointed to improving demand in the world’s largest fuel consumer, while the White House confirmed it was buying over 3 million barrels of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The IEA in particular hiked its demand outlook for 2024 and said that fuel supplies were likely to tighten further, as disruptions in the Middle East continued.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 83.5599 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.9444 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.8716 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 83.1767 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.0067 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.1651 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 62.4153 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 89.2089 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance  And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 83.46 | Take Profit: 87.18 | Stop Loss: 81.47

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Short-Covering Strength after Surprise EIA Data.

EIA reports an unexpected 9 bcf natural gas storage withdrawal. Production drops as U.S. firms cut back, usage to surge. U.S. natural gas futures were putting in a mixed performance on Friday, reacting to a surprise report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the previous session. The news caught bearish traders off-guard, triggering a short-covering rally. The EIA’s recent report revealed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 9 billion cubic feet (bcf) from natural gas storage for the week ending March 8, surpassing analyst predictions of a 3 bcf withdrawal. The longer-term outlook remains bearish, influenced by warmer weather forecasts and potential demand reduction. This trend will shift later in the year when hot summer weather meets the anticipated production cuts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7340 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7942 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0211 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7701 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7607 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.1257 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 37.8966 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 14.4963 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.81 | Take Profit: 1.55 | Stop Loss: 1.99

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.28%) at 2155.63, Silver is up (1.49%) at 25.17, Palladium is up (1.12%) at 1081.50, Platinum is up (0.75%) at 934.50, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.08%) at 85.35, WTI Crude Oil down (0.32%) at 81.00 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (Monday) (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar) (Monday) (JPY) BoJ Press Conference (Tuesday) (CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) (Tuesday) (USD) Building Permits (Feb) (Tuesday) (GBP) CPI (YoY) (Feb) (Wednesday) (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Wednesday) (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Statement (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Press Conference (Wednesday) (NZD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Wednesday) (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) (Thursday) (CHF) SNB Press Conference (Thursday) (GBP) Service PMI (Thursday) (GBP) BOE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) (Thursday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claims at 08:30 (Thursday)