. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold highs, silver shines, oil soars.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold highs, silver shines, oil soars.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold highs, silver shines, oil soars.

17 Feb 2024

Introduction

Gold, represented by XAU/USD, surged to a three-day high at $2015 amid rising inflation concerns and signals from the Federal Reserve. The softer Dollar and higher US Treasury yields contribute to the precious metal’s appeal. Meanwhile, silver resiliently heads for a positive weekly close, distinguishing itself from gold’s projected negative week-end. In the energy sector, oil prices climb on Middle East tensions, while Natural Gas faces sustained downward pressure with potential implications for long-term pricing. The US Dollar Index strengthens with favorable Producer Price Index (PPI) outcomes.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD hits three-day high amid inflation concerns, Fed’s policy signals.

Gold hits $2015, benefiting from a softer Dollar and higher US Treasury yields amid persistent inflation signs PPI and Core PPI surpass forecasts, indicating ongoing inflation and complicating the Fed’s targets. Hints of future rate cuts from Fed officials sway market outlook, enhancing gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against policy ambiguity. Gold price extended its gains for two straight days, hitting a three-day high at $2015 as the Greenback tumbled, despite US Treasury yields rising. US economic data suggests inflation is stickier than expected, though Federal Reserve’s officials opened the door to ease policy.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2014.7705 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2021.4628 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2021.1641 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2017.6327 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2024.0798 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2032.0209 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.9342 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.41 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
  • S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2016.45 | Take Profit: 2048.10 | Stop Loss: 1997.69

SILVER

Fed’s Rate Decision Key to XAG/USD’s Short-Term Trend.

Silver’s advancement towards a positive weekly close highlights its resilience, especially notable against gold’s projected negative week-end. Silver is advancing towards a positive weekly close, distinguishing itself from gold’s projected negative week-end. The metal has remained range-bound for the last month but has shown resilience, particularly in the $22.23 to $21.88 support zone established on November 13, 2023. January’s U.S. retail sales reported the most significant month-on-month decrease since February 2023, aiding in silver’s recovery this Thursday. A drop in unemployment claims also signals a strengthening job market.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.67 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.63 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100.00 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.46 R2 : 24.46
  • S1 : 22.69 S2 : 21.89

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 23.23 | Take Profit: 24.20 | Stop Loss: 22.75

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil settles up, records weekly gain on Middle East tensions.

Oil prices settled higher on Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East more than offset a forecast from the International Energy Agency for slowing demand. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in January amid strong gains in the costs of services, which could amplify inflation worries. Still, a slump in retail sales prompted hopes the Fed will soon start cutting rates, which could support oil demand. The agency expects global oil demand growth to decelerate to 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, about half of the growth seen last year, in part due to a sharp slowdown in Chinese consumption. It had previously forecast 2024 demand growth of 1.24 million bpd.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.6837 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.8838 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.3706 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.1651 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.9641 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.9316 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.8274 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 80.5228 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 83.04 | Take Profit: 86.10 | Stop Loss: 81.06

Natural Gas

Natural Gas is flat despite an uptick in PPI numbers.

Natural Gas keeps retreating with more bearish elements in the mix being added daily. Traders are pushing gas to substantially lower levels which could mean longer-term low pricing. The US Dollar Index jumps higher with beats on estimates from PPI. Natural Gas (XNG/USD) is trading around the lowest levels since mid-2020, around $1.65, and is facing more downward pressure. Recent US data shows that demand for Gas is now not only abating in Europe but also in the US. The decline towards $1.50 could mean that Gas prices are heading into a region of substantially lower prices for longer with redundancy at peak levels against tepid global demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8688 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.0723 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3429 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8953 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.1221 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3963 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 22.0906 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 2.4738 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.73 | Take Profit: 1.55 | Stop Loss: 1.85

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold was up (0.45%) at 2013.06, Silver was up (2.18%) at 23.39, Palladium was down (0.6%) at 946.50, Platinum was up (0.85%) at 903.59, Brent Crude Oil was up (0.81%) at 83.53, WTI Crude Oil up (1.53%) at 79.22 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) RBA Meeting Minutes (Monday) (CNY) PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Monday) (CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) (Tuesday) (AUD) Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday) (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (Thursday) (GBP) Manufacturing PMI (Thursday) (GBP) Service PMI (Thursday) (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Jan) (Thursday) (CAD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) (Thursday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (Thursday) (USD) Existing Home Sales (Jan) (Thursday) (NZD) Core Retail Sales (QoQ) (Thursday) (EUR) German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Friday)