. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold rises, silver falls, oil geopolitics, gas unclear.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold rises, silver falls, oil geopolitics, gas unclear.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold rises, silver falls, oil geopolitics, gas unclear.

13 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold surged to a new all-time peak above $2,400 before retreating amid risk aversion and a strong USD. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel initially boosted demand for safe havens. However, Fed officials’ comments bolstered the US Dollar, curbing Gold prices. Despite volatility, Gold closed the week with modest gains of 0.59%. Conversely, Silver plummeted after hitting three-year highs, while oil rallied over 2% amid escalating Middle East tensions.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold refreshes all-time peak above $2,400 before retracing on risk aversion, strong USD.

Gold reaches record $2,431, then pulls back amid stronger US Dollar and reduced inflation concerns.Geopolitical tensions between Iran-Israel spark market volatility, initially raising demand for safe havens.Fed officials’ comments boost the US Dollar, a headwind for Gold prices.Gold price finished the week with modest gains of 0.59% after reaching an all-time high during the North American session on Friday. Price action was volatile as Geopolitical risks sparked a flight to safe-haven assets, driving the non-yielding metal toward $2,431, a new all-time high, before retreating on overall US Dollar strength. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD exchanges hands at $2,343, down 1.18%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2315.6555 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2267.1094 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2179.1730 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2318.8743 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2252.3763 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2142.6349 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 71.3645 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 82.8610 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2395.43 | Take Profit : 2426.67 | Stop Loss : 2377.07

SILVER

XAG/USD plummets after hitting three-year high, stays bullish.

Silver pulls back sharply from its highest point since February 2021, suggesting the rally might be overextended.If it breaks below key supports at $28.28 and $28.00, further declines to $27.54 and $27.00 could occur.A recovery above $28.00 could reignite bullish sentiment, aiming for previous highs and resistances.Silver’s price tumbled on Friday’s session after refreshing three-year highs reached in February 2021. The grey metal peaked at $29.79 before plunging close to $2.00. The XAG/USD traded at $27.84, down 2.01%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 27.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 26.94 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 25.20 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 27.89 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 26.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 77.67 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 73.77 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 29.72 R2 : 30.99
  • S1 : 28.45 S2 : 27.24

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 28.99 | Take Profit : 29.64 | Stop Loss : 28.61

CRUDE OIL

Oil rallies over 2% with Middle East tensions nearing war status.

Oil prices are jumping higher again on Friday after the small 0.75% decline from Thursday. The move comes as commodities are soaring again fueled by geopolitical tensions and despite the fact that the US Dollar is stretching higher for a fourth straight day in a row this week. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its Oil demand forecast for this year and the next one, anticipating slower growth in 2025, due to a lacklustre economic outlook and the increasing market share of electric vehicles in the global car market The US Dollar meanwhile is printing a staggering 1.8% rally in the US Dollar Index (DXY) after markets are increasingly expecting a bigger interest-rate differential between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks. This rate differential is separating the countries (and ergo the local currency) where central banks are in dire need to cut against countries from those countries where cuts are currently not needed. Robust US economic data points to the US as the leader of the countries where rate cuts under current conditions are not needed at all.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 85.2062 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.8652 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.0005 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 85.7530 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.7787 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.0301 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.4432 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 73.4748 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 86.60 | Take Profit : 87.52 | Stop Loss : 86.11

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Lower Amid Supply Surplus, Weather Trends, Production Drop.

U.S. Natural Gas futures are down for a third consecutive session on Friday, signaling a potential test of multi-year lows in the near future. This trend is driven by larger than expected increases in storage and subdued demand forecasts, reflecting a bearish outlook in the market.The weather forecast for the upcoming week shows comfortable temperatures across the U.S., with light demand expected to continue. NatGasWeather highlighted cooler trends for April 19-23, which may slightly bolster prices, but the overall demand outlook remains weak. The expected light demand for the period of April 24-27 further compounds the bearish sentiment.Given the current trends of increased storage levels, declining production, and weaker demand, the outlook for natural gas prices remains bearish in the short term. Market participants should brace for continued downward pressure on prices as the supply outweighs the subdued demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7299 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7304 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8560 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7387 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7025 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7765 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.9744 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 57.2635 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.70 | Take Profit : 1.50 | Stop Loss : 1.87

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (1.19%) at 2343.29, Silver down (1.88%) at 27.88, Palladium up (0.16%) at 1049.20, Platinum up (0.44%) at 975.24, Brent Crude Oil up (0.46%) at 90.15, WTI Crude Oil up (0.51%) at 85.45 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) (Monday) (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) (Monday) (CNY) Industrial Production (YoY)(Mar) (Tuesday) (CNY) GDP (YoY) (Q1) (Tuesday) (GBP) Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Feb) (Tuesday) (CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) (Tuesday) (USD) Building Permits (Tuesday) (NZD) CPI (QoQ) (Q1) (Wednesday) (GBP) CPI (YoY) (Mar) (Wednesday) (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Mar) (Wednesday) (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at (Wednesday) (AUD) Employment Change (Mar) (Thursday)