. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold, silver surge defies economic odds.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold, silver surge defies economic odds.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold, silver surge defies economic odds.

06 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold price hits unprecedented highs amidst elevated US yields, showing resilience to US job data. Despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls, Gold maintains safe-haven allure, influencing Fed rate cut expectations. Geopolitical tensions and Chinese demand contribute to Gold’s record-breaking surge. Silver also climbs to three-year peaks, reflecting robust precious metals momentum, while WTI holds bullish stance amid supply concerns. Natural gas futures stabilize after a sharp decline, facing challenges from high storage surplus and low demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price soars to unseen highs amid high US yields, unfazed by US jobs data.

Gold hits record highs, defying US Nonfarm Payrolls spike and US Dollar gains, highlighting safe-haven status.Fed rate cut outlook adjusted after employment data, central bank remarks.Geopolitical tensions and strong demand from China bolster Gold’s market strength.Gold rallied to a new all-time high, ignoring a strong March Nonfarm Payrolls report in the United States (US), which could prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from slashing rates sooner than the market expects. In achieving its milestone, the yellow metal ignored the rise in US Treasury yields and the Greenback, which clings to modest gains of 0.09%. XAU/USD trades at $2,324 after reaching $2,330 earlier in Friday’s North American session. Gold’s price continued to be driven by fundamentals linked to the US Dollar, geopolitical risks and physical demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2257.6132 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2214.0033 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2141.6410 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2245.5541 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2206.8108 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2111.8416 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 82.8892 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.8732 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2305.26 | Take Profit : 2321.71 | Stop Loss : 2295.51

SILVER

XAG/USD peaks to new three-year high above $27.00.

Silver’s surge to multi-year highs reflects strong precious metals momentum, undeterred by US job market.Technical outlook hints at more gains, with resistances at $27.50, $28.00.Silver soared sharply and finished the week with gains of close to 10%, hitting three-year highs after reaching levels last seen in June 2021. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $27.45 a troy ounce, gaining more than 2%. The precious metals segment ignored an upbeat US jobs report that might delay the Federal Reserve from slashing rates in the June meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants decreased their bets on a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in June, though July remains in play. Silver followed Gold’s path, though the latter is trading at all-time highs.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 26.31 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 25.62 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.63 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 26.00 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 25.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.19 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 77.17 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.47 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 27.51 R2 : 28.81
  • S1 : 26.11 S2 : 24.79

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 26.44 | Take Profit : 27.35 | Stop Loss : 25.81

CRUDE OIL

WTI sets for bullish weekly close on multiple tailwinds.

WTI is stuck in a tight range but is poised to close the week on a bullish note.Supply concerns and an improved demand outlook have boosted Oil’s appeal.US Biden criticized Ukraine for targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, consolidate in a tight range around $86.80 in the European session on Friday. The Oil prices are set to conclude the week in a bullish time for the second straight time. The black gold sees a strong bull run in two weeks due to deepening supply concerns and expectations of a sharp revival in the global oil demand. Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have reinforced fears of oil supply risks. This week, Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil refineries prompted upside risks to lower oil production, resulting in a fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions. US President Joe Biden criticized the event of Ukraine targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure as it could have drastic consequences for global oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 84.3306 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.6375 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.9417 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 83.7418 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.0576 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.1007 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 72.2434 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.2308 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9550 R2 : 85.6263
  • S1 : 78.5443 S2 : 76.8730

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 85.78 | Take Profit : 89.25 | Stop Loss : 83.61

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Holding Steady Following Previous Steep Decline.

US Natural Gas futures are holding steady on Friday following a steep sell-off the previous session. Although the trend is down, some traders believe the market is consolidating and forming a support base for a rally later in the year. However, short-term gains continue to be capped by persistent low demand and high storage numbers.Natural gas futures took a hit following the EIA report, closing down 3.6% at $1.774/mmBtu for May delivery. Analysts warn that natural gas is likely to face challenges in the coming weeks due to the persistently large storage surplus. In the near term, natural gas futures may encounter volatility as traders grapple with conflicting factors. While the current spring storm drives demand in certain regions, the overall picture remains bearish due to the lingering storage surplus.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6959 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7151 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8780 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6801 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.6922 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8298 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 45.4658 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.3801 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8788 R2 : 1.9739
  • S1 : 1.5709 S2 : 1.4758

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.81 | Take Profit : 1.56 | Stop Loss : 1.99

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (1.77%) at 2329.57, Silver up (2.1%) at 27.46, Palladium down (1.73%) at 1003.33, Platinum down (0.79%) at 929.12, Brent Crude Oil up (0.23%) at 90.86, WTI Crude Oil up (0.16%) at 86.73 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) (Monday) (NZD) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) CPI (MoM) (Mar) (Wednesday) (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday) (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q4) (Wednesday) (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Mar) (Wednesday) (EUR) ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) (Thursday) (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Statement (Thursday) (USD) PPI (MoM) (Mar) (Thursday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) (EUR) ECB Press Conference (Thursday)