. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Gold steadies, Silver falters, Oil rises, Natural Gas skyrockets.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold steadies, Silver falters, Oil rises, Natural Gas skyrockets.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold steadies, Silver falters, Oil rises, Natural Gas skyrockets.

06 Jan 2024

Introduction 

In the commodities market, Gold stabilizes below $2,050 amid a muted Asian trade, recovering from recent losses fueled by a dollar surge. Attention now turns to crucial U.S. labor market data for insights into potential interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, Silver faces a second weekly loss due to a strong dollar and rising bond yields, with the non-farm payrolls report key to its future. Oil prices rise on U.S. economic strength and Middle East tensions, while U.S. natural gas futures surge to a one-month high driven by production cuts and cold weather forecasts. 

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold steadies below $2,050 as markets await nonfarm payrolls report.  

Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Friday after sinking below key levels this week following a sharp rebound in the dollar, with focus now squarely on key U.S. labor market data for more cues on interest rate cuts in 2024. The yellow metal was nursing some losses for the week following a strong melt-up towards the end of 2023. But the rally failed to sustain amid profit-taking and growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts this year. Markets slightly scaled back bets that rate cuts could begin by as soon as March 2024, after the minutes of the Feds December meeting offered few cues on when the bank planned to begin trimming rates .

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2050.32 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 2043.10 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 2014.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 2057.75 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 2040.92 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 2013.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.58 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 36.21 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19 
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55 

Overall Sentiment : Bullish  Market Direction : Buy  

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2037.52 | Take Profit : 2088.57 | Stop Loss : 2009.67 

SILVER

XAG/USD on Bearish Path Ahead of US Jobs Data.  

Silver trends towards second consecutive weekly loss. Dollar strength, Treasury yields impact silver prices. Non-farm payrolls report pivotal for silver direction. Silver (XAG/USD) is on a path to record its second consecutive weekly loss. The driving forces behind this trend are a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields, fueled by diminished expectations for an early interest rate cut in the U.S. The market sentiment currently reflects a cautious approach, with traders pricing in a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut by March. The strength of the U.S. dollar, coupled with a robust labor market, is likely to shape silvers price trajectory in the coming weeks, pending the release of the non-farm payrolls report. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 23.26 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 23.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 23.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 23.19 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 23.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 23.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 39.71 | Sell Zone | Bearish 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 7.11 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 23.28 R2 : 24.14
  • S1 : 22.79 S2 : 21.87

Overall Sentiment : Bearish   Market Direction : Sell 

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 22.74 | Take Profit : 21.86 | Stop Loss : 23.31 

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil prices rise on US economic strength and Middle East disruptions.  

Oil prices settled higher on Friday as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken began a week-long sweep through the Middle East to contain regional tensions stoked by the Israel Hamas conflict. Crude rebounded from losses on Thursday triggered by hefty increases in U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks, and both benchmarks ended the first week of the year higher. While these disruptions to Middle East supplies drove a recovery in crude this week, the rebound was limited by data showing a massive build in U.S. oil product inventories in the final week of 2023. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 78.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 80.25 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 78.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 77.41 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 80.20 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.43 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 55.79 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82 
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18 

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy  

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 77.44 | Take Profit : 81.53 | Stop Loss : 74.90 

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Soar on Cold Weather, EIA Supply Drop.  

U.S. natural gas futures hit a one-month peak, spurred by production cuts and cold forecasts, with focus on the upcoming EIA report. Production drop and cold weather push natural gas prices up Market anticipates EIA report on storage withdrawals Germany LNG import strategy alters global gas dynamics U.S. natural gas futures are witnessing a significant rise, reaching a one-month high, driven by a drop in daily production and forecasts for colder weather. These conditions are expected to increase heating demand over the next two weeks, pushing futures up by about 4%. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 2.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 2.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 2.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 2.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 2.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 68.20 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 97.12 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71 
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11 

Overall Sentiment : Bullish  Market Direction : Buy  

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.83 | Take Profit : 3.11 | Stop Loss : 2.66 

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.1%) at 2045.44, Silver up (0.83%) at 23.18, Palladium down (1.15%) at 1025.00, Platinum up (0.47%) at 959.38, Brent Crude Oil up (1.69%) at 78.90, WTI Crude Oil up (2.44%) at 73.95 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) (Tuesday)

(USD) Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday)

(USD) CPI (MoM) (Dec) (Thursday)

(USD) CPI (YoY) (Dec) (Thursday)

(USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) (Thursday)

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)

(CNY) CPI (YoY) (Dec) (Friday)