. Weekly Commodity Analysis -Gold Steadies, Silver Trims Losses

Weekly Commodity Analysis -Gold Steadies, Silver Trims Losses

Weekly Commodity Analysis -Gold Steadies, Silver Trims Losses

25 May 2024

Introduction

Gold prices remained steady in Asian trading on Friday, though they were poised for significant weekly losses amid fading hopes for rate cuts. Concerns over prolonged U.S. interest rates pulled gold down from its recent highs, exacerbated by diminishing safe-haven demand following subdued Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, silver managed to trim losses, supported by softer US data and resilient consumer sentiment. Oil faced a weekly decline due to worries about sustained interest rates impacting fuel demand, while natural gas futures dipped as increased production countered recent price spikes.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices steady but head for steep weekly losses as rate cut hopes wane.

Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Friday, but were nursing steep declines through the week as concerns over high for longer U.S. interest rates dragged the yellow metal from record highs.Gold was also hit by waning safe haven demand, as the death of the Iranian President did not ramp up tensions in the Middle East as initially expected. Gold nurses steep weekly losses on rate jitters Gold was set to lose about 3.4% this week, as it plummeted from record highs hit at the beginning of the week. Safe haven demand for gold waned this week, which left the yellow metal vulnerable to headwinds from concerns over high for longer interest rates. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve showed policymakers growing increasingly concerned over sticky inflation, with some even open to raise rates further.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2364.7829 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2354.5610 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2300.5111 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2375.7150 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2347.6695 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2310.5372 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.1693 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 8.63 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2328.10 | Take Profit : 2363.82 | Stop Loss : 2305.37

SILVER

XAG/USD trims losses, remains bullish and clings above $30.00.

Silver climbs 0.59%, trading at $30.30, recovering from near-weekly lows of $30.00.Softer-than-expected US Durable Goods data and improved consumer sentiment support Silver prices.RSI remains bullish, indicating strong buyer momentum despite exiting overbought conditions. The grey metal is upward biased, and the XAG/USD clinging to gains above $30.00 could pave the way for further upside. After the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exited overbought conditions, it remains bullish and aiming up, hinting that the buyer’s momentum remains strong.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 30.59 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 39.57 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.18 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 9.4 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 31.16 R2 : 32.52
  • S1 : 30.08 S2 : 28.42

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 29.68 | Take Profit : 31.27 | Stop Loss : 28.72

CRUDE OIL

Oil posts weekly loss as interest rate policy spurs fuel demand worries.

Oil prices rose about 1% on Friday, but fell for the week on worries that strong U.S. economic data would keep interest rates elevated for a longer period, curbing fuel demand. Summer demand in the United States is expected to pick up starting this weekend. WTI settled down 2.8% for the week. Worries over Federal Reserve interest rate policy and last week’s bump in US crude oil inventories weighed on market sentiment. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting a June 2 online meeting of the OPEC+ producer group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to discuss whether to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.3661 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.2590 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.1648 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.5487 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.9902 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.8130 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.3059 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 61.84 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 78.22 | Take Profit : 75.59 | Stop Loss : 79.88

NATURAL GAS

Prices Drop as Production Rises.

U.S. natural gas futures experienced a significant decline for a second consecutive session on Friday, reflecting market adjustments after recent price spikes. This decline was primarily attributed to indications that high prices have incentivized drillers to increase production. Despite the drop, a federal report revealed lower-than-expected gas storage injections. According to financial firm LSEG, natural gas output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 97.4 bcf per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from April’s 98.2 bcfd and significantly below December 2023’s record of 105.5 bcfd. Looking ahead, the market is showing correction signs as increased production may outpace demand, particularly with milder weather conditions expected in the northern U.S. However, high temperatures in the southern U.S. and potential disruptions from the hurricane season could add volatility.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.4651 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.2877 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.0746 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.4760 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.2181 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.9155 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 62.5436 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 0 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.64 | Take Profit : 2.93 | Stop Loss : 2.47

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.21%) at 2333.75, Silver up (0.74%) at 30.35, Palladium down (0.47%) at 964.97, Platinum up (0.66%) at 1025.73, Brent Crude Oil up (0.79%) at 82.11, WTI Crude Oil up (1.1%) at 77.75 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) (Monday) (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Monday) (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) (Tuesday) (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (May) (Tuesday) (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (May) (Wednesday) (NZD) Annual Budget Release (Thursday) (CHF) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) (Thursday) (EUR) Unemployment Rate (Apr) (Thursday) (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) (Thursday)