. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Oil, gas, gold turmoil, silver rises.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil, gas, gold turmoil, silver rises.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil, gas, gold turmoil, silver rises.

03 Feb 2024

Introduction

Oil prices face a weekly decline, influenced by hopes for a Gaza ceasefire and a stronger dollar, eroding the supply risks premium. Natural gas experiences a decline due to a storage draw falling short of demand, impacted by mild weather predictions. Gold slumps below $2,040 as upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls lift Treasury yields, affecting XAU/USD. Meanwhile, silver rose over 1% to $23.17, supported by central bank decisions and declining global bond yields.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil prices in weekly slump as Gaza ceasefire hopes, stronger dollar bite.

Oil prices fell Friday, to end the week deep in the red as growing optimism over an extended ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war cooled the supply risks premium baked into prices. Faltering growth in China and the possibility of some easing of tensions in the Middle East also reduced prices. High-interest rates, which tend to dampen economic growth and oil demand, in major economies like the United States and the eurozone appear to be here to stay in the near term. A stronger dollar makes oil, priced in the U.S. dollars, more expensive and less attractive to foreign buyers.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.00 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.32 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.65 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.58 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.35 R2 : 85.56
  • S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.01

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 78.31 | Take Profit : 75.73 | Stop Loss: 80.06

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Faces Constraints as Storage Draw Falls Short of Meeting Demand.

In the recent dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market, futures witnessed a decline prompted by a withdrawal of 197 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from underground storage in the preceding week. This withdrawal, while surpassing the average, aligned with industry predictions. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data indicating that natural gas inventories were 2.1% higher than the corresponding period in the previous year, with a surplus of 5.1% compared to the five-year average for the week. Despite this surplus, the trajectory is expected to reverse in the weeks ahead, primarily influenced by below-average draws attributed to the mild weather anticipated towards the end of January and the projected mild start to February. Consequently, the settlement for natural gas futures for March delivery experienced a 2.4% decline, resting at $2.050 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.57 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.54 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.16 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 8.22 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.07 R2 : 3.33
  • S1 : 2.20 S2 : 1.93

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell : 2.20 | Take Profit : 1.99 | Stop Loss : 2.34

GOLD

Gold slumps below $2,040 as US yields on upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls.

Following a quiet European session, Gold turned south and declined toward $2,030 on Friday, erasing a large portion of its weekly gains. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds above 4% after strong US jobs report and weighs on XAU/USD. Gold price (XAU/USD) oscillates in a narrow range through the early part of the European session on Friday and trades just below a one-month high, around the $2,065 region touched the previous day. Diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave have accelerated, and a modest bounce in the US Treasury bond yields, act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2035.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2033.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2023.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2030.53 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2030.28 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2034.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 52.51 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 67.87 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.38 R2 : 2087.55
  • S1 : 2010.57 S2 : 1992.40

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2033.46 | Take Profit : 2056.87 | Stop Loss: 2018.84

SILVER

XAG/USD remains bearish despite reclaiming $23.00.

Silver surges over 1% to $23.17, lifted by central bank decisions and declining global bond yields. They are testing resistance at 100-DMA, with the next targets at 200-DMA and 50-DMA for further gains. Potential downward shifts could push silver towards support at $22.50, $22.00, and January’s low. Silver price rises late in the North American session as traders digest the latest central bank’s decisions across both sides of the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates unchanged, and both signaled that the likelihood of cutting interest rates increases as the disinflation process evolves. That tumbled global bond yields and boosted precious metals. The XAG/USD exchanges hands at $23.17, up more than 1%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.84 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.91 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.23 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 22.73 R2 : 22.32
  • S1 : 22.36 S2 : 21.80

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 22.70 | Take Profit: 22.01 | Stop Loss: 23.18

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.73%) at 2039.58, Silver is down (2.05%) at 22.68, Palladium is down (1.82%) at 946.50, Platinum is down (2.05%) at 893.77, Brent Crude Oil is down (1.31%) at 77.67, WTI Crude Oil down (1.91%) at 72.41 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) ISM Non- Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (Monday) (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Monday) (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb) (Monday) (NZD) Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) (Wednesday) USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)