. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Oil Prices Declining, Natural Gas Rising.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Declining, Natural Gas Rising.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Declining, Natural Gas Rising.

08 Jun 2024

Introduction

Oil prices face a third consecutive weekly decline amid ongoing demand worries and fading hopes for a September rate cut. Despite OPEC+ reassurances, concerns over US job data and the Fed’s rate-cut timeline persist. Meanwhile, Natural Gas sees a resurgence fueled by increased demand from Egypt. The US Dollar strengthens, impacting commodities like Gold and Silver, as traders await US inflation figures and Fed policy decisions next week.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

Oil prices in 3rd weekly loss as demand concerns persist after rate-cut hopes ease.

Oil prices fell for the third-straight week after settling lower Friday as concerns over demand and cooling expectations for September rate cut weighed on sentiment.Oil prices edged down on Friday and posted a third straight weekly loss as investors weighed OPEC+ reassurances against the latest U.S. jobs data that lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon.Data showed U.S. jobs growth accelerated far more than expected in May, keeping the Fed on track to hold off starting to cut interest rates until September at the earliest. The European Central Bank went ahead with its first interest rate cut since 2019 on Thursday, despite an increasingly uncertain inflation outlook. High borrowing costs can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil.However, oil prices have been buttressed by support from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia, indicating readiness to pause or reverse oil output increases.

Technical   Overview With Chart :


Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 76.0097 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.2190 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.8967 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 76.5210 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.5373 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.7571 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.5017 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 32.0478 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 76.43 | Take Profit : 74.19 | Stop Loss : 77.90

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas regains control of rally and locks on Friday’s gains.

Natural Gas price swings back up and gains 3%.Egypt has issued a bigger than expected tender for more than 15 LNG cargoes. The US Dollar Index snaps losing streak and jumps higher, nearing 105.00.Natural Gas price (XNG/USD) swings back in the green with traders brushing off the Nonfarm Payrolls print. Traders are focusing back on the short term surge in demand by Egypt that is facing energy issues over the summer. By issuing a chunky tenor, markets see a squeeze in prices unfolding. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is jumping higher, away from the feared 104.00 level. Instead the DXY now is nearing 105.00 for this week and looks set to close out this Friday with a bang. The move is being enlarged a bit with US equities heading in the red as well, while some safe haven flow finds its way into the Greenback.

Technical   Overview With Chart :


Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.5535 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.4494 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2250 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.5233 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.4997 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.0869 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 65.4632 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 62.4165 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7525 R2 : 3.0175
  • S1 : 1.8945 S2 : 1.6295

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.82 | Take Profit : 3.10 | Stop Loss : 2.67

GOLD

Gold dives to new monthly lows following strong US employment data.

Gold falls to multi-week low after US labor market data exceeds expectations.China’s People’s Bank halts 18-month Gold buying spree, exerts downward pressure on XAU/USD.US Treasury yields surge with the 10-year yield up to 4.43%, bolstering the Greenback and pushing Gold’s price lower.Traders eye US inflation data and Fed policy meeting next week.Gold prices plummeted to a four-week low after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the labor market remained strong, and China halted its purchase of the golden metal. After the data release, XAU/USD extended its fall, which began during Friday’s Asian session. News that the People’s Bank of China paused its 18-month bullion buying spree weighed on the precious metal.Market participants turn to next week’s US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting.

Technical  Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2341.8006 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2345.5238 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2314.0253 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2342.0112 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2358.8994 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2341.8400 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 42.3755 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.2345 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2334.59 | Take Profit : 2282.64 | Stop Loss : 2373.56

SILVER

XAG/USD nosedives below $30 as strong US NFP report boosts US yields.

Silver price drops vertically below $30.00 as US yields soar after upbeat US NFP report for May.Both job and wage growth beat estimates.Pause in PBoC’s gold-buying also weighed on the Silver price.Silver price (XAG/USD) plummets below the psychological support of $30.00 in Friday’s New York session. The white metal plunges after the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report May showed that labor demand remains robust and the wage growth momentum was stronger than expected. The white metal was already under pressure as People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) gold reserves report for May showed that their 18-month long Gold buying spell paused for a while. The report showed that gold reserves were unchanged at 72.80 million fine troy oz.

Technical   Overview With Chart :


Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 30.08 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 30.31 | Negative Crossover |
  • MA 50 : 30.31 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 30.11 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 30.28 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 43.44 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 15.11 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.75 R2 : 32.26
  • S1 : 29.09 S2 : 27.43

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 30.01 | Take Profit : 28.31 | Stop Loss : 31.23

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (3.45%) at 2293.59, Silver down (6.82%) at 29.15, Palladium down (2.04%) at 911.00, Platinum down (3.67%) at 965.68, Brent Crude Oil down (0.6%) at 79.47, WTI Crude Oil down (0.31%) at 75.35 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) (Monday) (GBP) Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Apr) (Tuesday) (GBP) Claimant Count Change (May) (Tuesday) (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) (Wednesday) (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (May) (Wednesday) (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Apr) (Wednesday) (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Apr) (Wednesday) (USD) CPI (MoM) (May) (Wednesday) (USD) CPI (YoY) (May) (Wednesday) (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (May) (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Statement (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Press Conference (Thursday) (AUD) Employment Change (May) Thursday)