. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Oil Prices Dive, Gold Soars Amid Economic Shifts.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Dive, Gold Soars Amid Economic Shifts.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Dive, Gold Soars Amid Economic Shifts.

02 Dec 2023

Introduction:

In the commodities market, Brent Crude Oil faces its sixth consecutive weekly decline as OPEC+ cuts fall short, intensifying bearish pressure. Meanwhile, Gold, with XAU/USD eyeing record highs, sustains its position near historic levels, supported by global bond yield declines and subdued inflation. Additionally, Silver (XAG/USD) surpasses $25.00, and natural gas and copper prices exhibit consolidative trends after significant movements in November.

Brent Crude Oil:

Oil prices face their sixth consecutive weekly decline as bears intensify pressure after OPEC+ cuts fall short.

For the sixth consecutive week, oil prices experienced a decline on Friday. Concerns about oversupply persisted as major oil producers’ voluntary output cut agreements failed to meet expectations.

Both benchmarks experienced a 2% decline on Thursday, leading to losses exceeding 6% for the month of November. This marks the second consecutive month of losses.

Markets had anticipated a more substantial cut, and the voluntary nature of the reductions has introduced uncertainty about the true magnitude of future supply levels, indicating a diminishing influence of the ‘OPEC put’.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 80.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 81.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 83.99| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 80.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 81.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 85.50 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.38| Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator: 80.34 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 83.80 | R2: 87.78
  • S1: 80.32 | S2: 75.24

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 79.03 | Take Profit: 75.24 | Stop Loss: 81.61

Gold:

XAU/USD looking at record highs and US job data.

Gold maintains its position close to historic highs, securing its highest monthly close ever in November. The ongoing decline in global bond yields, coupled with a continued cooling of inflation, provides support for upward momentum in XAU/USD.

Gold confidently surpassed the $2,010 threshold and approached the region of its all-time high, propelled by a decrease in yields across global government bonds.

Gold not only breached the $2,000 mark but also exceeded the crucial level of $2,010, setting the stage for a potential challenge to its historical highs. In November, XAU/USD secured its highest monthly close on record.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2040.46 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2007.35| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1976.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2045.57| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 1994.35| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1972.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.62 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 68.18| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2039.55 | R2: 2075.00
  • S1: 2007.64| S2: 1968.64

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2045.46 | Take Profit: 2075.00 | Stop Loss: 2028.91.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

XAG/USD surges above $25.00 as bulls aim for the YTD high. Natural gas prices appear to have entered a consolidation phase within the lower range of the monthly spectrum. Copper prices stabilized on Friday following substantial gains in November, driven by improving economic indicators in China and anticipated supply constraints.

Gold up (1.76%) at 2071.95, Silver up (0.86%) at 25.47, Palladium down (0.45%) at 1002.50, Platinum up (0.73%) at 932.50, Brent Crude Oil down (1.61%) at 79.56, WTI Crude Oil down (2.08%) at 74.38 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release for Upcoming Week:

(CHF) CPI (MoM) (Nov) (Monday).

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Monday).

(AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Tuesday)

(USD) JOLTs Job Openings (Oct) (Tuesday).

(USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (Tuesday).

(AUD) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (Wednesday).

(EUR) Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) (Wednesday).

(GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 16:30 (Wednesday).

(USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) (Wednesday).

(CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday).

(AUD) Building Approvals (Thursday).