. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Oil rises amid tensions, gas falters, metals face challenges.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil rises amid tensions, gas falters, metals face challenges.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil rises amid tensions, gas falters, metals face challenges.

20 Jan 2024

Introduction

Oil prices dip on China demand worries, but a weekly gain is recorded, thanks to Middle East tensions disrupting oil output. Geopolitical risks in Gaza and U.S. strikes against Houthi missiles boost prices. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures decline on smaller-than-expected storage withdrawals and warmer weather forecasts. Gold faces a steep weekly drop amid doubts on March rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Silver holds at $22.50, resilient amid U.S. consumer sentiment boosts and high yields. Mixed signals with Wall Street gains but a 13-year low in U.S. Existing Home Sales.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil drops slightly on China demand concerns but records weekly gain.

Oil prices settled slightly lower on Friday but recorded a weekly gain as Middle East tensions and disruptions to oil output offset concerns about the Chinese and global economies. In the Middle East, geopolitical risks supported prices for the week. On Friday, tensions escalated in Gaza as Israeli forces pushed south against Hamas militants, while earlier in the week, the U.S. launched new strikes against Houthi anti-ship missiles aimed at the Red Sea. The premium of the first-month Brent contract to the six-month contract rose to as much as $2.15 a barrel on Friday, the highest since November. This structure, called backwardation, indicates a perception of tighter supply for prompt delivery.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.18 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.50 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 77.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.15 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.43 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 63.46 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 78.45 | Take Profit : 81.47 | Stop Loss : 76.63

NATURAL GAS

Futures Slide Amid Warmer Weather, Lower Demand.

US natural gas futures decline as a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal and anticipation of warmer weather weigh on the market. US natural gas futures faced a decline as the market reacted to a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal and the anticipation of warmer weather in late January and early February. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal of 154 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage, below analysts’ forecasts. This led to concerns about an oversupply, despite stocks being higher than last year and the five-year average.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.69 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.86 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 42.26 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 27.27 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.57 | Take Profit : 2.36 | Stop Loss : 2.72

GOLD

Gold prices set for steep weekly drop as traders question March rate cut.

Gold prices steadied on Friday, but were nursing steep declines for the week as growing doubts over early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve battered the yellow metal. Bullion prices had fallen sharply to a one-month low on Wednesday, but found some support around the $2,000 an ounce level amid some safe-haven demand. Gold was battered chiefly by traders pivoting into the dollar as strong economic data and hawkish-leaning comments from Fed officials saw markets further price out expectations for a March rate cut by the central bank.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2031.29 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2034.34 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2019.57 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2029.98 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2043.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2024.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.93 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 22.74 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2022.43 | Take Profit : 2063.05 | Stop Loss : 2001.55

SILVER

XAG/USD falls amid US consumer sentiment boost, high US yields.

Silver holds ground at $22.50, resilient amid losses, finding strong support at this key level.US Consumer Sentiment boost lifts US Treasury yields, affecting XAG/USD dynamics.Mixed economic signals: Wall Street gains, but US Existing Home Sales hit 13-year low; improved inflation outlook. Silver price is extending its losses for the third time in the week and faces solid support at around familiar levels, with sellers unable to decisively push prices below the $22.50 figure. Sentiment improvement amongst US consumers spurred a jump in US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $22.50, down 0.99%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.70 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 23.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 23.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 23.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 23.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 36.09 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 36.83 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.18 R2 : 24.18
  • S1 : 22.22 S2 : 21.28

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 22.77 | Take Profit : 21.86 | Stop Loss : 23.31

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.33%) at 2029.47, Silver down (0.51%) at 22.60, Palladium up (1.14%) at 978.38, Platinum down (0.84%) at 899.50, Brent Crude Oil down (0.63%) at 78.60, WTI Crude Oil down (0.70%) at 73.43 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (Tuesday) (JPY) BoJ Press Conference (Tuesday) (NZD) CPI (QoQ) (Q4) (Wednesday) (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (Wednesday) (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Monetary Policy Report (Wednesday) (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Dec) (Wednesday) (EUR) ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) (Thursday) (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Statement (Thursday) (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Thursday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claim (Thursday) (JPY) Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) (Friday)