. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Oil soars, gas plummets, market insights.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil soars, gas plummets, market insights.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil soars, gas plummets, market insights.

30 Mar 2024

Introduction

Oil prices concluded the first quarter on a high note, buoyed by Russia’s decision to cut output, alleviating concerns about oversupply. With ongoing production curbs by key OPEC members, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, investors remain watchful of geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, US natural gas futures face losses amid high storage levels and decreased demand due to warmer weather, while gold prices hold steady near record highs. Additionally, copper prices rebound on hopes of Chinese supply cuts, despite mixed market indicators.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil prices wrap up Q1 with strong gains as Russia cuts ease oversupply worries.

Oil prices settled higher Thursday to wrap up the first quarter with strong gains as bets on lower Russia output eased worries about a global supply surplus. Prices were boosted chiefly by a tighter outlook for markets, as Russia, Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept ongoing production curbs in place. Russia had earlier in March said it will deepen its ongoing production cuts, while fuel supplies in the country also shrank following a series of debilitating attacks by Ukraine on Russian fuel refineries. Investors will watch for cues from a meeting next week of the Joint Monitoring Ministerial Committee of producer group the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries amid supply concerns over ongoing geopolitical risks.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 85.8957 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 84.9609 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 83.2238 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 86.2333 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 84.6135 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 82.7049 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 62.5159 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 80.3237 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 86.52 | Take Profit: 89.03 | Stop Loss: 85.06

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Post Big First-Quarter Losses.

US Natural Gas futures were slightly higher on Thursday as traders await the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. Despite the potential for short-term fluctuations, the market is expected to continue its current trend, influenced by weather conditions and storage levels. Although today’s report could fuel a knee-jerk counter-trend rally. May delivery futures have recently decreased by 1.7%, a reaction to the decreased heating demand and substantial gas storage. Notably, gas prices have dropped to their lowest since June 2020, reaching $1.481 per mmBtu. This price drop is attributed to a mild winter and an all-time high in gas production, resulting in unusually large gas reserves. With high storage levels and reduced demand due to warmer weather, the short-term outlook for US natural gas futures remains bearish. Prices are likely to continue their downward trend.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6650 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7142 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9134 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6663 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7257 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9038 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.8357 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 13.5573 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell : 1.77 | Take Profit: 1.53 | Stop Loss: 1.97

GOLD

Gold prices in sight of record highs.

Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Thursday, sitting near record high as traders bought into the yellow metal ahead of more cues on U.S. inflation and interest rates. Bullion prices recovered a bulk of their losses this week as expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by as soon as June remained in play. But strength in the dollar, which sat near a one-month high, kept gold prices just off record highs. On the other hand, a combination of hawkish Fed comments and robust US economy data might weigh on the gold price. Many Fed officials remain cautious about easing too soon. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that there was “no rush” to Fed bank President Raphael Bostic stated that he now sees just one quarter-point rate cut this year, down from the two cuts that he had previously estimated.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2191.4879 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2162.9702 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2108.6633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2185.8783 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2170.9493 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2084.9629 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 76.1201 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.0927 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2198.90 | Take Profit: 2231.55 | Stop Loss: 2179.61

COPPER

Copper prices rebound on Chinese supply cut hopes .

Reuters reported that major Chinese copper smelters were considering output cuts, and had also set no guidance for copper prices in the second quarter. Reports of Chinese production cuts, which herald tighter markets for refined copper, had triggered sharp gains in copper prices earlier in March, putting them at 11-month highs. But these gains were offset by data showing Chinese copper inventories remained robust, which in turn suggested that markets may not be as tight as initially expected.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.01 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.04 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.1 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 7.45 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.01 R2 : 4.14
  • S1 : 3.90 S2 : 3.79

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3.94 | Take Profit: 4.11 | Stop Loss: 3.84

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.06%) at 2233.48, Silver is up (0.12%) at 24.97, Palladium is up (2.67%) at 1014.00, Platinum is up (1.29%) at 905.00, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.05%) at 86.99, WTI Crude Oil up (2.16%) at 83.11 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar) (Monday) (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Mar) (Monday) (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) (Monday) (AUD) RBA Meeting Minutes (Tuesday) (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) (Tuesday) (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Mar) (Tuesday) (USD) JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) (Tuesday) (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Mar) (Wednesday) (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) (Wednesday) (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:40 (Wednesday) (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Thursday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)