. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Silver Trends Amid Economic Data Awaited

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Silver Trends Amid Economic Data Awaited

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Silver Trends Amid Economic Data Awaited

01 Jun 2024

Introduction

Oil prices fell on Friday, posting a weekly loss ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, which will decide on production cuts. Brent settled down 0.6%, and WTI lost 1%. U.S. crude production rose, while fuel demand fell. Meanwhile, natural gas futures steadied after a sell-off, and gold’s technical outlook turned neutral ahead of key U.S. data. Silver extended losses amid a stronger USD and rising Treasury yields.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

Oil settles down ahead of OPEC+ meeting, posts weekly loss.

Oil prices fell on Friday and posted a weekly loss as investors awaited an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday that will determine the fate of the producer group’s output cuts.For the week, Brent settled down 0.6%, with WTI posted a 1% loss.Markets are awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, with the producer group working on a complex deal that would allow it to extend some of its deep oil production cuts into 2025, sources told Reuters. U.S. crude production rose in March to its highest level this year, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Friday, while fuel product supplied, a proxy for demand, fell 0.4% to 19.9 million barrels per day. The oil market has been under pressure in recent weeks over the prospect of U.S. borrowing costs staying higher for longer, which ties down funds and can curb oil demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.3990 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.9724 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.8805 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.2920 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.6313 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.4938 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.7697 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.39 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 78.03 | Take Profit : 75.86 | Stop Loss : 79.63

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Market Seeking Equilibrium After Steep Sell-Off.

U.S. natural gas futures were steady-to-lower on Friday as short-sellers attempt to square positions ahead of the weekend. This follows a week of substantial selling pressure due to worries about increased production, favorable weather, and a larger-than-expected storage report. Natural gas futures experienced significant downward pressure this week, driven by concerns over rising production volumes, mild weather forecasts, and a higher-than-anticipated storage report. The market is attempting to find an equilibrium following the rapid price increases in May. The recent sell-off indicates that traders are looking for new long positions to counteract the persistent selling pressure. The current market situation suggests a cautious outlook for natural gas futures.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.4446 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3490 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.1427 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.5358 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3716 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9918 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.4088 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 34.8345 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.65 | Take Profit : 2.42 | Stop Loss : 2.85

GOLD

Gold Technical outlook turns neutral heading into NFP week.

Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction this week.The near-term technical picture highlights a neutral outlook.Next week’s high-tier data releases from the US could influence Gold’s valuation.Following the previous week’s steep decline, Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to rebound this week, pressured by the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength and rising US Treasury bond yields. High-tier macroeconomic data releases from the US next week could significantly influence the market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook and trigger the next big action in XAU/USD.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2349.8443 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2349.8734 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2308.3366 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2360.5573 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2356.5399 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2328.0036 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.6322 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.33 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2349.10 | Take Profit : 2320.06 | Stop Loss : 2365.82

SILVER

XAG/USD extends losses to near $31.00 due to market caution.

Silver price continues to lose ground as traders exercise caution ahead of US Core PCE.US Treasury yields appreciate due to the hawkish Fed, which weakens the demand for non-yielding Silver.The higher US Dollar impacts the grey metal demand as it becomes more expensive for foreign buyers.Silver price continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around $31.10 per troy ounce during the European session on Friday. The hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have raised concerns about potential rate hikes. Higher interest rates are negatively impacting non-yielding assets like Silver. Additionally, the stronger US Dollar (USD) makes the grey metal more expensive for foreign buyers. This increased cost leads to lower Silver demand and subsequently lower prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 31.04 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 31.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 31.29 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 31.15 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.06 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 42.77 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 12.69 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 31.23 R2 : 32.52
  • S1 : 29.79 S2 : 28.39

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 30.08 | Take Profit : 28.39 | Stop Loss : 31.53

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.72%) at 2326.97, Silver down (2.53%) at 30.37, Palladium down (3.45%) at 915.32, Platinum up (0.93%) at 1036.08, Brent Crude Oil down (0.76%) at 81.28, WTI Crude Oil down (0.89%) at 77.12 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) (Monday) (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (May) (Monday) (USD) Manufacturing PMI (May) (Monday) (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) (Monday) (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Tuesday) (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Tuesday) (AUD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) (Wednesday) (USD) ADP Nonfarm Unemployment Change (May) (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Press Conference (Wednesday) (GBP) Construction PMI (May) (Thursday) (EUR) Retail Sales (MoM) (Thursday)