. Weekly Commodity Analysis - Stay ahead with our commodity market update.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Stay ahead with our commodity market update.

Weekly Commodity Analysis – Stay ahead with our commodity market update.

02 Mar 2024

Introduction

Oil prices rise 2%, securing weekly gains ahead of an OPEC+ decision for Q2, while traders evaluate fresh economic data from the US, Europe, and China. Brent gains 2.4% for the week, and WTI rises over 4.5%. Expectations of Saudi Arabia maintaining crude prices support the market. U.S. Natural Gas Futures break a four-week losing streak, supported by lower U.S. production despite mild temperature forecasts. Gold hits a two-month high above $2,070, driven by a 1% drop in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. Silver sees a third straight day of gains as slowing U.S. inflation data fuels bets on a Fed rate cut in June.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil climbs 2%, notches weekly gains ahead of OPEC+ decision.

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday and posted weekly gains as traders awaited an OPEC+ decision on supply agreements for the second quarter while also weighing fresh U.S., European and Chinese economic data. For the week, Brent added around 2.4% following the switch in contract months, while WTI gained more than 4.5%. Strong expectations of Saudi Arabia keeping term prices of crude it sells to Asian customers little changed in April from March levels also underpinned the market on Friday. The oil rig count, an early indication of future output, rose by three to 506 this week, the highest since September.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.6794 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.1144 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.1824 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.8368 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.0012 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.2122 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.8787 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.2490 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 83.29 | Take Profit : 86.43 | Stop Loss : 81.39

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Snap Four-Week Losing Streak.

Natural gas futures make their first weekly gain in five weeks, helped by lower U.S. production. Upside is limited by mild temperature forecasts going into the tail end of the heating season, which is expected to see further increases in storage surpluses. “Long-range weather maps keep teasing colder air into the U.S. the second half of March, but the risk is warmer trends show up in time, just as they’ve done the past six weeks,” forecaster NatGas Weather.com says in a note. The EIA reported this week that natural gas in storage decreased by 96 Bcf to 2,374 Bcf as of Feb, 23, which was 26.5% above the five-year average. Natural gas for April delivery settles down 1.3% at $1.835/mmBtu, but is 8% higher on the week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7862 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8767 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.1494 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7513 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8233 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2813 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 41.0294 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.3702 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.77 | Take Profit : 2.02 | Stop Loss : 1.63

GOLD

Gold jumps to fresh two-month high above $2,070.

Gold gathered bullish momentum in the second half of the day on Friday and reached its highest level since early January above $2,070. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down 1% at 4.2%, fueling XAU/USD’s rally ahead of the weekend. Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks lower following an intraday uptick back closer to a one-month top touched the previous day and slides closer to the $2,042-2,040 resistance break point during the early European session on Friday. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until the June policy meeting before lowering borrowing costs remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, turns out to be a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2039.4674 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2032.5324 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2026.1939 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2034.9164 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2026.2079 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2034.1425 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 70.3713 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 90.4824 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2065.21 | Take Profit : 2087.89 | Stop Loss : 2049.86

SILVER

Silver Prices Fed Policy Expectations Stir XAG/USD.

Silver bulls are witnessing a continued rally, with the metal notching its third straight day of gains on Friday. The driver: U.S. inflation data slowing, fueling bets on a Fed rate cut come June. While silver’s rally is underpinned by falling Treasury yields, gains are being checked by a slight uptick in the greenback. Traders are dissecting the latest PCE index figures, the Fed’s go-to inflation barometer. January’s read shows a 0.3% month-on-month climb and a year-on-year uptick of 2.4%. Core PCE, less food and energy, also ticked up. January’s PCE, showing the lowest year-on-year rise since early 2021, signals easing inflationary headwinds. This opens a window for Fed rate cuts later this year, potentially pumping up silver’s allure as a non-yielding asset

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.67 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.47 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.67 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.67 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.26 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 94.61 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.20 R2 : 24.00
  • S1 : 22.48 S2 : 21.84

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 22.94 | Take Profit : 23.75 | Stop Loss : 22.48

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (1.89%) at 2082.65, Silver up (2.07%) at 23.12, Palladium up (1.16%) at 955.48, Platinum up (1.28%) at 885.72, Brent Crude Oil up (1.89%) at 83.46, WTI Crude Oil up (1.98%) at 79.81 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CHF) CPI (MoM) (Feb) (Monday) (JPY) Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) (Tuesday) (GBP) Service PMI (Feb) (Tuesday) (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (Tuesday) (AUD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Wednesday) (AUD) Retail Sales (Wednesday) (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) JOLTs Job Openings at (Jan) (Wednesday) (EUR) German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) Forecast –6.5%, Previous 8.9% at 12:30.