. Weekly Commodity Analysis -Oil Prices Dip, Natural Gas Takes Breather

Weekly Commodity Analysis -Oil Prices Dip, Natural Gas Takes Breather

Weekly Commodity Analysis -Oil Prices Dip, Natural Gas Takes Breather

11 May 2024

Introduction

Oil prices dipped on Friday but closed the week positively, buoyed by easing demand concerns. China’s robust import data and signs of increasing domestic demand fueled optimism, while OPEC+ discussions on output cuts further supported prices. Natural gas futures saw a mixed session, with bullish prospects ahead. Gold rebounded on weak US data despite high Treasury yields, while silver retreated amid a stronger dollar. Economic indicators next week will shape market expectations, particularly regarding Fed rate cuts.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

Oil prices settle lower on Friday, but end week in green on easing demand concerns.

Oil prices settled lower Friday, but notched a positive week following big gains earlier this week amid fading hopes of Gaza ceasefire and easing concerns about demand.Both benchmark contracts were set to post gains of around 2% this week, boosted by stronger-than-expected overall import data from China, the world’s biggest oil importer. Signs of strong domestic demand pushed up hopes that oil demand will start picking up in the Asian giant. China’s oil imports added to the positive overall tone as well, as although imports fell from the prior month, they came in above the levels seen last year. Additionally, U.S. crude inventories surprisingly fell last week, and refining and fuel demand is set to increase tracking higher travel demand during summer.Also supporting prices this week has been talk that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. and allies, known as OPEC+, will continue to roll over output cuts, in an attempt to limit global supply.

Technical   Overview With Chart :


Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.6258 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 80.8016 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.9952 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.4316 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.4777 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.8990 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 36.4570 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.86 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 80.52 | Take Profit : 77.49 | Stop Loss : 83.09

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Take Breather to Stall Strong Win Streak.

Natural gas futures finished Friday on a low note yet capped a solid week overall that was built on fading production, LNG advances and sections of strong weather-driven demand.Looking ahead, the market is poised for potential bullish trends as the supply-demand balance tightens further. Analysts anticipate next week’s storage report to show an injection below seasonal norms, which could bolster natural gas prices in the short term. The expectation for the fall storage peak is set above 4 trillion cubic feet, indicating ample supply but also a well-balanced market that could support stable or increasing prices moving forward.Next week’s storage report likely to show reduced injection.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.9897 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.9018 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8696 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.9603 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8482 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7773 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 65.1296 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 66.23 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.22 | Take Profit : 2.49 | Stop Loss : 2.07

GOLD

Gold advances on weaker than expected US data despite strong US Dollar.

Gold rebounds from daily lows, propelled by a sharp drop in US consumer sentiment and future economic outlook.High US Treasury yields weren’t an excuse for Gold’s advance.US consumers expect inflation to remain above 3% over a one-year period.Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, with mixed signals from different Fed governors.Gold prices advanced sharply late in the North American session on Friday, up by more than 1% despite US Treasury bond yields remaining high. A University of Michigan (UoM) survey showed that Americans had become pessimistic about the economy as Consumer Sentiment plunged to its lowest level in six months. Bullion prices were now set to break a two-week losing spree, as some safe haven demand also remained in play amid bets that Israel and Hamas will not reach a ceasefire deal. Reports of fresh U.S. trade tariffs on China also sparked some safe haven demand. The XAU/USD trades at $2,360 after bouncing off daily lows of $2,343. Friday’s sentiment data and the weaker labor market figures revealed since the beginning of May paint a gloomy outlook for the economy of the United States (US). Although fears of a pronounced economic slowdown remain low, market participants seeking safety drove the golden metal and the US Dollar higher.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2328.8484 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2321.1314 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2263.7295 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2319.6240 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2336.1790 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2266.5983 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 60.4064 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.00 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2351.26 | Take Profit : 2382.76 | Stop Loss : 2332.36

SILVER

XAG/USD retreats as shooting star looms, sellers eye $28.00.

Silver retreats from a three-week high reached at $28.74.Momentum favors bulls in the medium term; but shooting star looming paves the way for a retracement.Uptrend to resume with buyers clearing $28.74.Silver prices reversed on Friday amid high US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar. The grey metal slipped 0.48% and exchanges hands at around $28.19, at the time of writing. Next week, US economic calendar will be data-packed as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Retail Sales data are lined-up for release. The major event will be the consumer price inflation data, which will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 27.77 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 27.47 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 27.68 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 27.24 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 64.87 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 89.67 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.66 R2 : 29.22
  • S1 : 27.73 S2 : 27.06

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 27.95 | Take Profit : 28.77 | Stop Loss : 27.49

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.62%) at 2360.22, Silver down (0.66%) at 28.14, Palladium up (1.03%) at 977.00, Platinum up (1.64%) at 994.00, Brent Crude Oil down (1.69%) at 82.67, WTI Crude Oil down (1.73%) at 78.13 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Apr) (Tuesday) (GBP) Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Mar) (Tuesday) (CHF) PPI (MoM) (Apr) (Tuesday) (USD) PPI (MoM) (Apr) (Tuesday) (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Tuesday) (EUR) GDP (YoY) (Q1) (Wednesday) (EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) (Wednesday) (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) (Wednesday) (USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) (Wednesday) (USD) CPI (MoM) (Apr) (Wednesday) (USD) CPI (YoY) (Apr) (Wednesday) (JPY) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) (Thursday) (AUD) Employment Change (Apr) (Thursday)