. Weekly FX Analysis - Dive into forex trends for market advantage.

Weekly FX Analysis – Dive into forex trends for market advantage.

Weekly FX Analysis – Dive into forex trends for market advantage.

02 Mar 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD rebounds to 1.0840 as US ISM PMI miss sparks risk-on sentiment, pushing markets into a late-week recovery. The unexpected decline in US Manufacturing PMI raises hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. GBP/USD sees a bullish bounce near 1.2650 on renewed risk appetite after the US ISM PMI miss. AUD/USD makes a strong recovery from 0.6500 amid subdued US Dollar, fueled by hopes of a Fed rate cut in June. USD/JPY rebounds to 150.00 following dovish BoJ remarks, showing potential for further gains. The Australian Dollar gains strength on upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI, contributing to its V-shape recovery.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD rebounds on Friday after US ISM PMI miss sparks risk-on investor appetite.

EUR/USD vaults back into 1.0840 following the market pivot. Market risk sentiment sees a late-week recovery on Friday.US Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declines, sparking rate cut hopes.EUR/USD caught a bounce from 1.0800 after markets pivoted into a risk-on stance following Friday’s US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decline, flubbing forecasts and stepping deeper into contraction territory. Slipping economic figures are sparking renewed hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Fed’s latest Monetary Policy Report shows the central bank is firming up faith in inflation reaching the 2% target. The European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation fell less than expected in February, helping to provide some sentiment support for the Euro (EUR) on Friday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0819 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0816 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0833 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0822 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0790 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0871 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.1966 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 68.2523 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0876 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0844 | Take Profit: 1.0942 | Stop Loss: 1.0789

GBP/USD

GBP/USD catches a bullish bounce after US ISM PMI miss sparks risk appetite.

GBP/USD rallies back into technical midrange near 1.2650. Broad-market risk appetite knocks Greenback lower ISM Manufacturing PMI fell back in February, price pressures easing.GBP/USD caught an intraday bump on Friday after a surprise miss in the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) sparked renewed risk appetite on the back of fresh hopes for easing inflation to kick off a round of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This week and next week both see a thin showing in economic figures from the UK to drive the Pound Sterling, but traders will be pivoting to face next week’s hefty labor data from the US.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2647 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2645 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2637 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2648 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2622 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.8032 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 62.6437 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2681 | Take Profit: 1.2808 | Stop Loss: 1.2612

AUD/USD

AUD/USD delivers a strong recovery from 0.6500 on the subdued US Dollar.

AUD/USD recovers vertically from 0.6490 as the US Dollar turns subdued. The market participants hope that the Fed will announce a rate cut in June. Upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI improves the appeal of the Australian Dollar. The AUD/USD pair delivers a V-shape recovery from 0.6490 as investors hope the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the June policy meeting. The Aussie asset recovers sharply as the US Dollar comes under pressure. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar performs stronger on February’s upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Surprisingly, the economic data rose to 50.9 from expectations of 50.6 and the prior reading of 50.8. The Australian economy is China’s leading trading partner, and an improvement in the latter’s economic prospects eventually strengthens the Australian Dollar’s appeal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6525 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6535 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6563 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6534 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6520 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6607 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.2767 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 40.8235 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6580 R2 : 0.6620
  • S1 : 0.6453 S2 : 0.6413

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6549 | Take Profit: 0.6466 | Stop Loss: 0.6610

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Price Rebounds to 150.00 amid dovish BoJ remarks.

USD/JPY bounces back to 150.12, recovering after BoJ Governor’s dovish comments trigger USD rally. Technical analysis suggests the potential for further gains, with eyes on surpassing February highs. Key support and resistance levels are outlined, with a close eye on 150.00 as a pivotal point for direction.The USD/JPY stages a recovery after diving to a two-week low of 149.21, climbing above the 150.00 figure on Friday amidst dovish comments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda during the Asian session. That favored the Greenback, which paired Thursday’s losses, and currently stands at 150.12, up by a modest 0.10%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 150.1953 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 149.6784 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 148.3244 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 150.3167 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 149.8629 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 147.1885 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.8503 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.5917 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 150.8153 R2 : 151.9920
  • S1 : 147.0060 S2 : 145.8293

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 149.77 | Take Profit: 151.81 | Stop Loss: 148.46

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.18% to 0.6097. The USD/CAD was down 0.15% to 1.3560. The USDCHF is down 0.13% at 0.8833. EUR/GBP up 0.07% at 0.8565. The USD/CNY is up 0.12% at 7.1955, AUD/SEK is down 0.09% at 6.7334, and CHF/SGD is up 0.15% at 1.1320 at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CHF) CPI (MoM) (Feb) (Monday) (JPY) Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) (Tuesday) (GBP) Service PMI (Feb) (Tuesday) (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (Tuesday) (AUD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Wednesday) (AUD) Retail Sales (Wednesday) (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) JOLTs Job Openings at (Jan) (Wednesday) (EUR) German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) Forecast –6.5%, Previous 8.9% at 12:30.