. Weekly FX Analysis - GBP up, Euro down, Yen struggles, AUD resilient.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP up, Euro down, Yen struggles, AUD resilient.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP up, Euro down, Yen struggles, AUD resilient.

06 Apr 2024

Introduction

Following a post-NFP slump, GBP/USD rebounds above 1.2600, with the Pound erasing losses despite a frail economic outlook. US Nonfarm Payrolls data signals robust employment growth, driving the Dollar higher. Meanwhile, EUR/USD dips post-NFP as the Eurozone’s mixed economic indicators contrast with the strong US employment landscape. Japanese Yen struggles amid USD strength, while AUD/USD maintains an upward bias post-NFP.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD picks up following a post-NFP slump and returns above 1.2600.

The Pound has trimmed retraced post-NFP lows and is practically flat on the daily chart. Nonfarm payroll data shows that the US economy remains creating employment at a strong pace. A frail economic outlook and softer inflationary pressures are weighing on the Pound. The Sterling is regaining lost ground on Friday’s US session following a significant reversal, with a strong US employment report sending the Dollar soaring. The pair, however, remains practically flat in the weekly chat after having whipsawed over the last few days. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 303K in March beating expectations of a 200K increase to close a stellar quarter for employment. Wage inflation has continued growing, although the moderation observed in the yearly rate, which has eased to 4.1% from 4.3% in the previous month has eased concerns about a hawkish steer by the Federal Reserve.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2654 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2662 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2619 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2679 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2666 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.9331 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 38.7833 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2819 R2 : 1.2894
  • S1 : 1.2576 S2 : 1.2501

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.2653 | Take Profit : 1.2569 | Stop Loss : 1.2719

EUR/USD

EUR/USD dips post US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

A robust US Nonfarm Payrolls report for March propels the Greenback higher, impacting the EUR/USD. The Eurozone’s mixed economic indicators, including Germany’s Factory Orders and Retail Sales, contrast with the strong US employment landscape. Further downside seen at EUR/USD as technical suggests potential for declines below the 1.0800 threshold. The Euro registers minimal losses of 0.13% following the release of a stronger-than-expected jobs report from the United States (US) that boosted the Greenback, sending the EUR/USD lower. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.0822 after hitting a daily high of 1.0847.On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the economy added more jobs than expected. Nonfarm Payrolls for March rose by 303K, crushing estimates and previous readings of 200K and 270K. Further data showed the Unemployment Rate ticking lower from 3.9% to 3.8%, while Average Hourly Earnings were aligned to the consensus.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0821 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0832 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0843 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0810 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0850 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0828 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.9375 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 50.8796 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0928 R2 : 1.0978
  • S1 : 1.0765 S2 : 1.0715

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.0845 | Take Profit : 1.0771 | Stop Loss : 1.0899

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen slides to fresh daily low against against USD, US NFP looms large.

The Japanese Yen struggles to capitalize on its intraday strength to over a two-week top. A modest USD strength assists USD/JPY to recover early lost ground to sub-151.00 levels. The risk-off mood, along with intervention fears, could limit losses for the safe-haven JPY. Traders now look to the release of the US jobs data (NFP) for some meaningful impetus. The Japanese Yen (JPY) meets with a fresh supply after rising to over a two-week high against its American counterpart earlier this Friday and drops to a daily low during the first half of the European session. The downfall could be attributed to some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by the overnight hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. That said, any meaningful depreciating move seems elusive in the wake of the prevalent risk-off environment, which tends to drive flows towards the safe-haven JPY.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 151.3050 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 150.8029 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.6789 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 151.4621 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 150.4116 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.7408 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 62.5793 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.9922 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 152.0153 R2 : 153.3100
  • S1 : 147.8240 S2 : 146.5293

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 150.81 | Take Profit : 151.95 | Stop Loss : 150.07

AUD/USD

AUD/USD remains biased higher, with downside attempts capped above 0.6555.

Aussie’s reversal has been contained above 0.6555, which leaves the positive momentum intact. The pair withstood the bullish US Dollar reaction after the NFP release. A clear break of the 0.6620-0.6630 resistance area would confirm a trend shift. Australian Dollar’s reversal from Thursday’s highs has been contained above the 0.6555 support area, despite the strong US Dollar reaction to the upbeat US employment data. This keeps bulls hopeful of a deeper recovery, with their focus on the resistance area above 0.6600. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased beyond expectations in March to close a strong first quarter, although a certain moderation observed in the yearly wage growth maintains hopes of Fed cuts alive. This has put a lid on the USD rally which leaves the pair’s bullish momentum intact.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6549 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6548 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6557 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6537 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6555 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6543 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.7040 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 61.3316 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6628 R2 : 0.6673
  • S1 : 0.6483 S2 : 0.6438

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 0.6555 | Take Profit : 0.6614 | Stop Loss : 0.6519

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD down 0.21% to 0.6013. The USD/CAD up 0.34% to 1.3589. The USDCHF is up 0.01% at 0.9014. EUR/GBP down 0.04% at 0.8568. The USD/CNY is up 0.42% at 7.2288, AUD/SEK is down 0.21% at 6.9951, and CHF/SGD is down 0.04% at 1.4954 at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) (Monday) (NZD) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) CPI (MoM) (Mar) (Wednesday) (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) (Wednesday) (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday) (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q4) (Wednesday) (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Mar) (Wednesday) (EUR) ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) (Thursday) (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Statement (Thursday) (USD) PPI (MoM) (Mar) (Thursday) (USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) (EUR) ECB Press Conference (Thursday)