. Weekly FX Analysis - GBP/USD crashes, EUR/USD battles, AUD/USD tumbles.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP/USD crashes, EUR/USD battles, AUD/USD tumbles.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP/USD crashes, EUR/USD battles, AUD/USD tumbles.

03 Feb 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD faces a downturn, hitting daily lows near 1.2650, influenced by heightened selling pressure and a robust US jobs report bolstering the USD. Meanwhile, EUR/USD reacts to the NFP, losing key technical support. The AUD/USD tumbles post-jobs report, with the RBA’s decision and upcoming economic data crucial for its trajectory. USD/JPY soars to new highs, propelled by strong US employment data, as focus shifts to the BoJ’s potential rate changes in March. The week ahead includes key events like RBA’s decision, USD data releases, and developments in USD/JPY.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD plummets to daily lows near 1.2650.

The selling pressure in the risk complex gathers extra steam and forces GBP/USD to drop to the lower end of the daily range near 1.2650. The impressive January jobs report from the US provides a boost to the USD ahead of the weekend. GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and closed in positive territory on Thursday after dipping below 1.2650 with the immediate reaction to the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy announcements. The pair holds its ground in the European session on Friday and trades modestly higher on the day above 1.2750. The BoE maintained the bank rate at 5.25%, as expected, following the first policy meeting of the year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.61 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 49.57 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.28
  • S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.26

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.2612 | Take Profit: 1.2500 | Stop Loss: 1.2706

EUR/USD

EUR/USD finds the floor once more as the US NFP sends the Greenback higher.

EUR/USD loses key technical handle after US Jobs Report thumps forecasts.US NFP hits highest level in a year, March rate cut hopes all but buried. EUR/USD continues to churn on Friday, keeping a near-term choppy technical pattern intact as the Euro (EUR) cycles against the US Dollar (USD). US Nonfarm Payrolls wildly outperformed market expectations, hitting a one-year high and bringing sharp upside revisions to previous data points. Investors hoping for faster, sooner rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have seen rate cut hopes dwindle as the US domestic economy continues to surprise with its sturdiness.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.08 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.08 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.35 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 20.89 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.10 R2 : 1.10
  • S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.0775 | Take Profit: 1.0665 | Stop Loss: 1.0853

AUD/USD

AUD/USD tumbles following US jobs report, RBA decision awaited.

AUD/USD falls to 0.6511 after US jobs report beats forecasts, reducing prospects for near-term Fed rate cut.US sees 353K job additions in January with Hourly Earnings rise, underscoring a strong labor market, uplifting USD.RBA’s upcoming decision and future economic data releases to play key roles in determining AUD’s trajectory. Next week, the Aussie’s economic calendar will feature the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision, followed by RBA’s Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference. After that, the Aussie Dollar could gauge direction from the release of the AI Group Industry Index, Westpac Consumer Confidence, and NAB Business Confidence data.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 32.94 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 19.19 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.68 R2 : 0.68
  • S1 : 0.65 S2 : 0.64

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6507 | Take Profit: 0.6431 | Stop Loss: 0.6569

USD/JPY

USD/JPY soars to new highs after strong US jobs data dampens rate cut hops.

USD/JPY climbs over 0.90% to 148.05 after strong US jobs report and higher Treasury yields. Rises in the US 10-year Treasury yield and Dollar Index signal robust confidence in the US economy. Anticipation of BoJ ending negative rates complicates USD/JPY outlook, eyes on March meeting. The USD/JPY bounces from around the 146.00 handle and prints a new three-day high at 148.05 after a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report pushed aside the Federal Reserve’s rate cut speculations amongst the investment community. At the time of writing, the major exchanges hands at 147.77, gains more than 0.90%. Looking forward to the schedule, the US economic calendar is set to include the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment as well as Factory Orders.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 147.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 146.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 146.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 147.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 146.92 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.04 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.95 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 148.58 R2 : 150.46
  • S1 : 142.46 S2 : 140.57

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 148.62 | Take Profit: 151.26 | Stop Loss: 146.99

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD down 1.32% to 0.6062. The USD/CAD is up 0.61% to 1.3467. The USDCHF is up 1.04% at 0.8666. EUR/GBP up 0.07% at 0.8536. The USD/CNY is up 0.18% at 7.1925, AUD/SEK is up 0.25% at 6.8426, and CHF/SGD is down 0.60% at 1.5489 at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) ISM Non- Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) (Monday) (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Monday) (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb) (Monday) (NZD) Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) (Wednesday) USD) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)