. Weekly FX Analysis - GBP/USD Swings, EUR/USD Challenges, AUD/USD Rebounds, USD/JPY Gains.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP/USD Swings, EUR/USD Challenges, AUD/USD Rebounds, USD/JPY Gains.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP/USD Swings, EUR/USD Challenges, AUD/USD Rebounds, USD/JPY Gains.

27 Jan 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD retreated below 1.2750, reversing gains after soft US December core PCE inflation data. Despite the setback, the pair eyes marginal weekly gains. Meanwhile, EUR/USD stabilized near 1.0850 post-US inflation data, maintaining positive territory. AUD/USD recovered to 0.6600 on improved market sentiment ahead of US core PCE data, while USD/JPY aimed for the psychological resistance at 148.00, supported by Tokyo CPI slowing below the BoJ’s 2.0% target.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD retreats below 1.2750, and looks to post small weekly gains.

GBP/USD lost its traction and retreated below 1.2730 after rising above 1.2750 on soft US December core PCE inflation data in the early American session on Friday. Every week, GBP/USD remains on track to post marginal gains. GBP/USD lost its traction and dropped below 1.2700 in the early trading hours of the European session on Friday. Although the near-term technical outlook is yet to highlight a build-up of bearish momentum, buyers could remain discouraged unless the pair manages to reclaim 1.2700. Upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US provided a boost to the US Dollar (USD) during the American session on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.13 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 59.44 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.29
  • S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.25

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2622 | Take Profit : 1.2799 | Stop Loss : 1.2524

EUR/USD

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0850 after US inflation data.

EUR/USD continues to trade in positive territory at around 1.0850 in the American session on Friday. The USD struggles to find demand and helps the pair hold its ground after the data from the US showed that the annual core PCE inflation softened to 2.9% in December. After closing in negative territory on Thursday, EUR/USD extended its slide and touched its lowest level since mid-December below 1.0850. The near-term technical outlook points to a build-up of bearish momentum and additional losses could be seen if 1.0800 support fails. The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged as expected following the January policy meeting and didn’t make any significant changes to the statement language.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.28 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 23.28 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.11 R2 : 1.12
  • S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0873 | Take Profit: 1.07610 | Stop Loss: 1.0951

AUD/USD

AUD/USD recovers to near 0.6600 as sentiment remains upbeat ahead of US core PCE data.

AUD/USD bounces back to near 0.6600 on improved market sentiment. Investors await the US core PCE data for fresh guidance on interest rates. Australian inflation is anticipated to soften to 4.3% in the last quarter of 2023. The AUD/USD pair rebounds to near the round-level resistance of 0.6600 in the late London session. The Aussie asset recovers as an appeal for risk-perceived currencies ahead of the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for December, which will be released at 13:30 GMT.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.41 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 25.12 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.69 R2 : 0.69
  • S1 : 0.66 S2 : 0.65

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6587 | Take Profit: 0.6469 | Stop Loss: 0.6658

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Hovers around 147.70 with the bullish sentiment

USD/JPY could improve towards the psychological resistance at the 148.00 level. Technical indicators suggest a bullish momentum to revisit January’s high at 148.80. A break below the 147.00 level could lead the pair to reach the 14-day EMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. USD/JPY grapples to inch higher for the second consecutive session, trading near the 147.70 level during the European hours on Friday. The USD/JPY receives upward support as the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan’s national capital decelerated below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2.0% target for the first time in nearly two years.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 147.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 146.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 146.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 147.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 145.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.84 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 80.63 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 146.29 R2 : 148.20
  • S1 : 140.11 S2 : 138.20

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 148.39 | Take Profit: 150.38 | Stop Loss: 147.06

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD down 0.33% to 0.6090. The USD/CAD is down 0.16% to 1.3452. The USDCHF is down 0.45% at 0.831. EUR/GBP up 0.16% at 0.8573. The USD/CNY is up 0.12% at 7.1774, AUD/SEK is down 0.05% at 6.871, and CHF/SGD is up 0.44% at 1.5524 at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) (Monday) (EUR) German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (EUR) GDP(QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) (Tuesday) (AUD) CPI (QoQ) (Q4) (Tuesday) (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Jan) (Wednesday) (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) (Wednesday) (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Nov) (Wednesday) (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Statement (Wednesday) (USD) FOMC Press Conference (Wednesday)