Weekly Global Markets Technical Analysis Report – 02 May 2021

Weekly Global Markets Technical Analysis Report – 02 May 2021

Germany Business Expectations

 WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 26 th APRIL 2021                                                EUR and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

German Business Expectations rates the expectations of businesses in Germany for the following six months. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

  U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders MoM, USA 

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

26thApril 2021                                                   USD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement,JAPAN

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

26th APRIL 2021                                                  JPY and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement contains the outcome of the BoJ’s decision on asset purchases and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Gold Down 2nd Week in Row as Nemesis Yield Returns

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED

Gold was down for a fourth day in a row Friday as intermittent spikes in the key yield of U.S. bonds kept it under constant pressure.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a two-week high of 1.684 on Thursday as bonds started selling off again this week after a spike in U.S. consumer confidence, which hit 14-month highs in April.

Aside from consumer spending, a rash of US economic data, from inflation to homebuilding, house prices and employment, have exceeded forecasts lately, boosting hopes for faster-than-expected recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Crude Oil Prices Slip

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BRENT & WTI CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED:  

Crude oil prices slipped on Friday, following a broader risk-off move in equities, with news of a further rise in Iranian output adding to reasons to lock in profits at the end of a strong month.

As of next week, Saudi Arabia will start to unwind the voluntary 1 million barrel a day output cut it put in place in February, confident that reviving world demand will absorb the extra barrels. At the same time, the rest of the OPEC+ bloc will also open their taps a little wider, as part of a plan to return another 1 million b/d of production by the end of the second quarter.  

Reports reveealed in a monthly survey that Iranian crude output had risen another 200,000 barrels a day on average in April, offsetting involuntary production shortfalls at other OPEC members such as Libya in the course of the month. The return of Iranian crude to the world market is gathering speed as the pressure from Trump-era sanctions on the Islamic Republic weakens. Iran is free to increase its output because it isn’t bound by the so-called OPEC+ pact on withholding supply from the market. 

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

 WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

3rd May 2021                                         EUR and its subsequent pairs                                                                   

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Australia Interest Rate Decision

     WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

4th May 2021                                       EUR and its subsequent pairs   

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  

 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

5th May  2021                                                  USD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

6th May 2021                                                  USD and its subsequent 

                                                                             Pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. 

U.K. Interest Rate Decision

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

6th May 2021                                                    GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: 

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Pfizer(PFE) to announce its Quarterly Results on 4th May 2021, EPS estimated to 0.7773 per share while revenue estimated 13.67B. 

2. Hyatt(H) to announce its Quarterly Results on 4th  May 2021, EPS estimated to -1.3 per share while revenue estimated 465.32M.

3.Paypal (PYPL) to announce its Quarterly Results on 5th May 2021, EPS estimated to 1.01 per share while revenue estimated 5.9B.

4. Uber Tech (UBER) to announce its Quarterly Results on 5th May 2021, EPS estimated to -0.557  per share while revenue estimated 102.28B.

5. Black Rock (TCPC) to announce its Quarterly Results on 5th May 2021, EPS estimated to 0.3186 per share while revenue estimated 844.56M.

     TOP CURRENCIES IN THE UPCOMING  WEEK

EUR/USD 

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

 USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY is trading in a Downward channel, the Down side can be seen in the coming days

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading in an Upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

TOP INDEX TO WATCH OUT

Nasdaq 100

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100 is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

CAC 40 

Technical Analysis

CAC 40 is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

FTSE 100

Technical Analysis

FTSE 100 is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

TOP COMMODITIES TO WATCH OUT

GOLD

Technical Analysis

Gold is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

Brent Oil

Technical Analysis

Brent Crude is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

TOP CRYPTO -CURRENCIES TO WATCH OUT

Bitcoin

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis

Ethereum is trading in a upward channel, the Up side can be seen in the coming days.

 DATA WATCH

Technical Analysis

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