Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb), U.S
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
16th MARCH 2021 USD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
USDJPY is currently in an uptrend further upside will be seen if it breaks the 109.665 level.
Exports (YoY) (Feb), JAPAN
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
16th MARCH 2021 JPY and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: This Exports number provides the total US dollar amount of merchandise exports on an f.o.b. (free on board) basis.
CHFJPY is currently in a downtrend channel further downside will be seen if it breaks the 116.866 level.
Core CPI (MoM) (Feb), CANADA
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
17th MARCH 2021 CAD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
USDCAD is currently in a downward channel further downside will be seen if it breaks the 1.24594 level.
Gold Up 2nd-Straight Week Despite Rising Dollar, Yields
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED: Gold logged a second-straight weekly gain, indicating that investors in the yellow metal were getting adjusted to a rising dollar and spiking U.S. bond yields as the “new normal” they had to navigate in a higher inflation environment.
Gold for April delivery settled up $9.20, or 0.5%, at $1,741.70 an ounce on New York’s Comex.
For the week, the benchmark futures gold contract was up 1.3%, extending a similar gain from the previous week.
Gold is trading in a downward trend; it had taken support from 1676.05 further downsides will be seen if it breaks this level.
Oil prices rise 2%, but set for weekly loss on demand fears
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
WTI CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED: Oil rose more than 2% in volatile trading on Friday after a sell-off earlier in the week erased about 7% from prices as a new wave of coronavirus infections across Europe dampened expectations of any imminent recovery in fuel demand.
Brent crude was up $1.38 a barrel, or 2.1%, at $64.63 a barrel by 1:12 ET (16:12 GMT). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude rose $1.42, or 2%, to $61.45. Both traded within a wide range of more than $2 a barrel on Friday.
WTI CRUDE OIL was in the uptrend channel. In the coming days, the further downside will be seen.
Above $60K and Back, Bitcoin’s Wild Rollercoaster
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
BTCUSD
WHAT HAPPENED: This was an important week in Bitcoin’s history. For the first time ever, the price reached an all-time high above $60,000. Regardless, it was an intense few day in terms of price action, and many altcoins also experienced serious volatility.
It all started last weekend. On Saturday, the price started trending upwards and managed to breach $60K for the first time in history. In fact, it went as high as $61,800 and actually managed to hold above the important level throughout the entire weekend.
On Monday, however, it was all doom and gloom. The price corrected all the way down to about $53,000 in a few violent swings. This left its mark as we saw over $2.2 billion worth of long positions liquidated as the bears clear had the upper hand. It wasn’t long after that, however, that BTC started ascending again and before we knew it, the price was once again battling for the $60K level.
BTCUSD is very volatile it is not respecting any resistance or support from the past few days. Once it became stable its direction will be clear.
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
Existing Home Sales, US
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
22nd MARCH 2021 USD and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Claimant Count Change (Feb), UK
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
23rd MARCH 2021 GBP and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labour market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
Services PMI (Mar), JAPAN
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
23rd MARCH 2021 JPY and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The survey covers transport & communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing & IT and hotels & restaurants. Each response received is weighted according to the size of the company to which the questionnaire refers & the contribution to total service sector output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar), GERMANY
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
26th MARCH 2021 EUR and its subsequent
Pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. The index is compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
SNB Interest Rate Decision, SWITZERLAND
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
25th MARCH 2021 CHF and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Swiss National Bank (SNB) governing board members come to a consensus on where to set the target range for the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
1. POSCO (PKX) to announce its Quarterly Results on 22nd March 2021, EPS estimated to 1.52 per share while revenue estimated 13.7B.
2. Adobe (ADBE) to announce its Quarterly Results on 23rd March 2021, EPS estimated to 2.79 per share while revenue estimated 3.76B.
3. IHS Markit Ltd (INFO) to announce its Quarterly Results on 23rd March 2021, EPS estimated to 0.6986 per share while revenue estimated 1.11B.
4. BlackBerry (BB) to announce its Quarterly Results on 26th March 2021, EPS estimated to 0.0271 per share while revenue estimated 244.03M.
5. Smith’s Group (SMIN) to announce its Quarterly Results on 26th March 2021, EPS estimated to 24.74 per share while revenue estimated 1151M.
TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
GOLD
Gold is trading in a downward trend; it had taken support from 1676.05 further downsides will be seen if it breaks this level.
SILVER
SILVER has broken all support of Fibonacci Fan further downside will be seen in coming days.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI CRUDE OIL was in the uptrend channel. In the coming days, the further downside will be seen.
TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK
ETHEREUM
ETHEREUM was trading in an upward trend. After breakout further downside can be seen.
LITECOIN USD
LITECOIN USD is in upward channel after breaking the level of 230.52 the further upside will be seen.
TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK
EURUSD
EURUSD had taken support from 1.18781 further upside will be seen if it sustains above this level.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is currently in an up channel, Further upside will be seen in the coming days.
EURGBP
EURGBP was in a parallel channel, after breaking the channel further downside will be seen.
TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK
NIKKEI 225
NIKKEI 225 is currently in an uptrend. Further upside will be seen in the coming days.
DAX 30
DAX 30 is currently in an uptrend. Further upside will be seen in the coming days.
CAC 40
CAC 40 is in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.
DATA WATCH
| Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| Sunday, March 21, 2021 | ||||
| Tentative | NZD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 98.4 | 106 |
| 21:30 | CNY | PBoC Loan Prime Rate | 3.85% | |
| Monday, March 22, 2021 | ||||
| All Day | South Africa – Human Rights Day | |||
| 07:25 | BRL | BCB Focus Market Readout | ||
| 10:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales (Feb) | 6.49M | 6.69M |
| 10:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -3.00% | 0.60% |
| Tuesday, March 23, 2021 | ||||
| 03:00 | GBP | Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jan) | -170K | -114K |
| 03:00 | GBP | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 5.20% | 5.10% |
| 10:00 | USD | New Home Sales (Feb) | 876K | 923K |
| Wednesday, March 24, 2021 | ||||
| 05:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 54.9 | 54.9 |
| 05:30 | GBP | Services PMI (Mar) | 49.5 | |
| 10:30 | USD | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | -0.624M | |
| Thursday, March 25, 2021 | ||||
| 19:00 | USD | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | ||
| 19:30 | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| 19:30 | JPY | CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Mar) | 0.10% | |
| Friday, March 26, 2021 | ||||
| 03:00 | GBP | Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) | -1.20% | -3.80% |
| 03:00 | GBP | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 2.00% | -8.80% |
| 05:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) | 93.2 | 92.4 |
| 08:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (Feb) | -84.58B |
