Weekly Global Markets Technical Analysis Report – 28 March 2021

Weekly Global Markets Technical Analysis Report – 28 March 2021

Existing Home Sales, US

 WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 22nd MARCH 2021                                                  USD and its subsequent 

                                                                              pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

USDCAD is trading in a down channel further downside can be seen in the coming days. 

     Claimant Count Change (Feb), UK

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

23rd MARCH 2021                                                 GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labour market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.

GBPJPY is trading in an up channel further upside can be seen in the coming days.

    Services PMI (Mar), JAPAN

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

23rd MARCH 2021                                             JPY and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The survey covers transport & communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing & IT and hotels & restaurants. Each response received is weighted according to the size of the company to which the questionnaire refers & the contribution to total service sector output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.

EURJPY is trading in an up channel further upside can be seen in the coming days.

Gold Continues Positive-But-Anaemic Run with Daily Rise, Weekly Fall

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED

That’s the story in gold this Friday as both the spot price and futures of the yellow metal went through several hoops before settling slightly lower than where they did a week ago.

Most, importantly, the market did not crack the key ceiling of $1,750 per ounce, despite coming less than $4 of meeting that test.

Gold for April delivery settled Friday’s session up $7.20, or 0.4%, at $1,732.30 an ounce on New York’s Comex. For the week though, it dipped 0.5%.

The spot price of gold, which fund managers sometimes rely on for direction more than futures, was up $3.67, or 0.2%, at $1,731.01 by 3:04 PM ET (19:04 GMT). For the week, spot gold showed a decline of 0.8%.

Gold is trading in a downward trend; it had taken support from 1676.89 further downsides will be seen if it breaks this level.

Oil climbs as Suez Canal mishap threatens supplies, but demand worries push prices down for the week

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

WTI CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Oil futures ended higher on Friday, with no sign that the ship blocking the Suez Canal will be cleared anytime soon, threatening the flow of oil supplies in the region. Prices, however, ended the week lower, as rising COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns in Europe dulled the outlook for energy demand. “The fundamental backdrop of the oil markets has deteriorated this week as consumer demand estimates are revised lower, but the near-term uncertainties surrounding the Suez debacle are keeping prices from materially declining,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. May West Texas Intermediate crude CLK21, +3.69% rose $2.41, or 4.1%, to end at $60.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

WTI CRUDE OIL was in the uptrend channel. After breaking the channel further downside will be seen.

BITCOIN BOUNCES AS $6.4B IN OPTIONS EXPIRE, INSTITUTIONAL BUYING SLOWS DOWN

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BTCUSD

WHAT HAPPENED: The past few weeks have been hard on crypto bulls, as Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continued to sell off. Since reaching an all-time-high of $61,500, Bitcoin plunged 16% in a matter of a few weeks, shedding $100 billion in market capitalization. The major cryptocurrency saw signs of life as Elon Musk’s tweet sent prices back up to $56,000. 

This would prove to not be enough, as Bitcoin continued to plummet, revisiting the $51,000 territory. Following a multi-day loss streak, bearish sentiment began to set in; investors and speculators began to brace for impact, fearing that the correction was far from over.  

BTCUSD is trading in an upward trend. Further upside can be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

     Nationwide HPI (MoM), UK

 WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 29th MARCH 2021                                                  GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                              pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. It is the U.K.’s second earliest report on housing inflation.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

     GDP (MoM) (Jan), CANADA

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

31st MARCH 2021                                                 CAD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. Canada releases fresh GDP data on a monthly basis.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

    Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb), US

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

31st MARCH 2021                                             USD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1), JAPAN

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

31st MARCH 2021                                              JPY and its subsequent 

                                                                             Pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions among large businesses, excluding the manufacturing industry. On the index, a level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 large businesses.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb), AUSTRALIA

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

31st MARCH 2021                                                    AUD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Momenta (MNTA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 29th March 2021, EPS estimated to -0.50 per share while revenue estimated 6M. 

2. Micron (MU) to announce its Quarterly Results on 31th March 2021, EPS estimated to 0.9293 per share while revenue estimated 6.14B.

3. CarMax (KMX) to announce its Quarterly Results on 1st March 2021, EPS estimated to 1.27 per share while revenue estimated 5.17B.

4. BlackBerry (BB) to announce its Quarterly Results on 30th March 2021, EPS estimated to 0.0271 per share while revenue estimated 249.24M.

5. Porch Group (PRCH) to announce its Quarterly Results on 30th March 2021, EPS estimated to -0.05per share while revenue estimated 18.9M.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

GOLD

Technical Analysis

Gold is trading in a downward trend; it had taken support from 1676.89 further downsides will be seen if it breaks this level.

SILVER

Technical Analysis

SILVER is trading in a parallel channel further downside will be seen if it breaks 22.837 level and upside will be seen if it breaks 28.739 level.  

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis

WTI CRUDE OIL was in the uptrend channel. After breaking the channel further downside will be seen.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

BTCUSD

Technical Analysis

BTCUSD is trading in an upward trend. Further upside can be seen in the coming days.  

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis

ETHEREUM is trading in an upward channel. Further upside will be seen in the coming days. 

TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

EURUSD 

Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading in a downward trend, Further downside will be seen if it breaks the 1.16911 level. 

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD is currently in an up channel, Further upside will be seen in the coming days. 

EURJPY

Technical Analysis

EURJPY is trading in an up channel, further upside can be seen in the coming days.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

S&P 500

Technical Analysis

S&P 500 is currently in an uptrend. Further upside will be seen in the coming days. 

FTSE 100

Technical Analysis

FTSE 100 is currently in an uptrend. Further upside will be seen in the coming days.

DAX 30

Technical Analysis

DAX 30 is in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.

DATA WATCH

TimeCurrencyEventForecastPrevious
Monday, March 29, 2021
02:00  GBPNationwide HPI (MoM)0.70%
02:00  GBPNationwide HPI (YoY)6.90%
07:25  BRLBCB Focus Market Readout  
17:45  NZDBuilding Consents (MoM) (Feb)2.10%
19:30  JPYJobs/applications ratio (Feb)1.11.1
19:50  JPYRetail Sales (YoY) (Feb)-2.80%-2.40%
Tuesday, March 30, 2021
20:30  AUDBuilding Approvals (MoM) (Feb)  3.20%-19.40%
20:30  AUDPrivate Sector Credit (MoM) (Feb)0.30%
21:00  CNYChinese Composite PMI (Mar)51.6
21:00  CNYManufacturing PMI (Mar)5150.6
21:00  CNYNon-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)51.4
Wednesday, March 31, 2021
02:00  GBPNationwide HPI (YoY) (Mar)6.50%6.90%
02:00  GBPNationwide HPI (MoM) (Mar)0.50%0.70%
05:00  EURCPI (MoM)  0.20%
05:00  EURCPI (YoY) (Mar)  1.30%0.90%
19:50  JPYTankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q1)1.40%-1.20%
19:50  JPYTankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q1)4-8
Thursday, April 1, 2021
02:00  EURGerman Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)2.00%-4.50%
03:50  EURFrench Manufacturing PMI (Mar)58.758.8
03:55  EURGerman Manufacturing PMI (Mar)66.666.6
04:00  EURManufacturing PMI (Mar)62.462.4
04:30  GBPManufacturing PMI (Mar)57.957.9
Friday, April 2, 2021
08:30  USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)0.20%0.20%
08:30  USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Mar)4.50%5.30%
08:30  USDNonfarm Payrolls (Mar)182K379K
08:30  USDParticipation Rate (Mar)61.40%
08:30  USDPrivate Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)210K465K
08:30  USDUnemployment Rate (Mar)6.20%

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