Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 17 July 2022

Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 17 July 2022

Technical Analysis

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

    GDP (YoY), U.K.

    WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

13th JULY 2022                                                            GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

GBPJPY is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

    Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

    WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

     14th JULY 2022                                                            USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. 

USDCAD is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul), NEW ZEALAND 

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

12th JULY 2022                                                           NZD and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT HAPPENED: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers.

NZDUSD is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold falls Friday in fifth weekly decline on dollar strength

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED: Gold prices eased on Friday and posted its fifth straight weekly loss, as expectations of a sizeable rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve powered the dollar and eroded bullion’s appeal.

Spot gold firmed to $1,705.39 per ounce, but lost about 2% this week. U.S. gold futures also eased 0.13% to $1,703.6.

That, to some, was an indication that gold may already have, or is close, to bottoming out and probably has not too much more to lose.

Friday’s trade in gold was bogged by more uncertainty after the release of sterling U.S. jobs data for June.

GOLD was trading in the downward channel. The downside will be further in the coming week after the breakdown.

Oil rises 2% as no immediate Saudi output boost expected

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Oil gained 2.5% on Friday after a U.S. official told Reuters that an immediate Saudi oil output boost was not expected, and as investors question whether OPEC has the room to significantly ramp up crude production.

The comment during U.S. President Joe Biden’s Middle East visit comes at a time when spare capacity at members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is running low.

Brent crude futures settled at $101.16 a barrel, rising $2.06, or 2.1%, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $97.59 a barrel, gaining $1.81, or 1.9%.

Both benchmarks saw their biggest weekly percentage drops in about a month, largely on fears earlier in the week that a nearing recession would chop away at demand. Brent lost 5.5% in its third weekly drop, while WTI was down 6.9% in its second weekly decline.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever ‘extreme fear’ period

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Bitcoin (BTC) may have avoided fresh losses since falling to $17,600 last month, but the sentiment is on the floor.

Now, one classic crypto market mood gauge is showing just how long and hard the average investor has suffered.

70 days of “extreme fear”

While crypto market sentiment was already “comparable to funeral” before the start of 2022, the subsequent price drawdown in Bitcoin and altcoins produced cold feet like never before.

This has now been quantified by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool that takes multiple sources into account to create an overall score of how the markets are feeling. 

As of July 15, Fear & Greed has spent 70 days in its lowest bracket — “extreme fear” — marking of a new bearish record.

BTCUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

     Claimant Count Change (Jun), U.K.

 WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 19th JULY 2022                                                              GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

      Existing Home Sales (Jun), U.S.

WHEN:                                                                          WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

20th JULY 2022                                                               USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Core CPI (MoM) (Jun), CANADA

WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

20th JULY 2022                                                            CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Manufacturing PMI (Jul), GERMANY

WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

22nd JULY 2022                                                             EUR and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul), EURO ZONE

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

21st JULY 2022                                                                       EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

  1. Bank of America (BAC) to announce its Quarterly Results on 18th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 0.7485 per share while revenue estimated 22.72B. 
  2. IBM (IBM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 18th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 2.27 per share while revenue estimated 15.09B.
  3. J&J (JNJ) to announce its Quarterly Results on 19th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 2.55 per share while revenue estimated 23.80B.
  4. Tesla (TSLA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 20th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 1.86 per share while revenue estimated 16.52B.
  5. AT&T (T) to announce its Quarterly Results on 21st JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 0.6088 per share while revenue estimated 29.53B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

     GOLD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GOLD was trading in the downward channel. The downside will be further in the coming week after the breakdown. 

SILVER

Weekly Technical Analysis

SILVER is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

WTI CRUDE OIL

Weekly Technical Analysis

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

     BTCUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

BTCUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days. 

LITECOIN 

Weekly Technical Analysis

LITECOIN is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.   

 TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

     EURUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

GBPUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GBPUSD is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

USDJPY

Weekly Technical Analysis

USDJPY was trading in the up channel. The upside will be further in the coming week after the breakout.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

     NIKKEI 225

Weekly Technical Analysis

NIKKEI 225 is trading in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.

     FTSE 100

Weekly Technical Analysis

FTSE 100 is trading in the down channel; further downside will be seen in the coming days.

     DATA WATCH

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