Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 02 April 2023

02 Apr

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY – 02 APRIL 2023

/ CSFX Analytics

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

German Business Expectations (Mar), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

27 MARCH 2023 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: German Business Expectations uses survey responses to gauge the expectations of businesses in Germany for the next six months. It is a forward-looking sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.

A reading that is stronger than the forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

CB Consumer Confidence (Mar), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

28 MARCH 2023 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence consumers have in the economy. When consumers are optimistic, they tend to spend more which increases consumption and overall economic growth.

USDZAR is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb), AUD

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

28 MARCH 2023 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for most of the overall economic activity.

AUDUSD is trading in a downward channel. The further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold is up 9% for 2 quarters in a row as a haven and risk both shine

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED: In what appears to be an unprecedented win, gold prices are up 9% for two-quarters back-to-back as a memory of this month’s U.S. banking crisis keeps the haven in demand, even as risk assets rebound from recent lows.

Gold for June delivery on New York’s Comex settled the last trading day for March at $1,986.20 an ounce, down $11.50, or 0.6%.

For the week, the benchmark U.S. gold futures contract was down as well, dipping $15.50, or 0.8%, as it compared with the previous Friday’s settlement of $2,001.70.

But for the month, it climbed 8%, and, more importantly, for the quarter, it had a $160 gain that translated to a near 9% win.

That quarterly gain is particularly significant as Investing.com data indicates that it’s the first time that gold posted such a large quarterly advance back-to-back. In the previous quarter between September and December, gold futures notched a $154, or 9.2% gain.

Adding a cherry to the frosting on the gold cake was the metal’s proximity to the $2,000 perch for much of this month. In the past two weeks, Comex futures have breached $2,000 on six occasions, reinforcing expectations that it will get to $2,100 in due course to set a record high.

GOLD is trading in up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

Oil has a good week but a poor month; Even poorer quarter

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Against the odds, oil bulls coasted to a second straight week of gains that sharply pared losses forced by the U.S. banking crisis two weeks ago. Yet, they fell short of turning March into a positive month and took an even bigger hit for the quarter.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude settled at $75.67 per barrel, up $1.30, or 1.8%, on the day, after a session high at $75.71 that marked a two-week peak. For the week, WTI was up 9.2%. Combined, the past two weeks slashed 11% off the 13% drop WTI endured three weeks ago.

For the month though, the U.S. crude benchmark was off by 1.8%, while for the quarter, it showed a loss of 6%.

London-traded Brent crude settled at $79.77, up 50 cents, or 0.6%, on the day. For the week, Brent rose 6.4%. For the month, the global crude benchmark was down almost 5% and for the quarter, it showed a loss of 7.3%.

“Oil prices are continuing to gradually recover but remain way off pre-banking mini-crisis levels,” said Craig Erla, analyst at online trading platform OANDA.

“The prolonged economic scarring of the last month will likely slow the economy, if not cause a recession,” Erla said, adding that the recovery may be slow as inventors learn of the longer-term consequences from this month’s banking crisis, with lower interest rate expectations unlikely to help much.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

The “Bull Run is Back” says Renowned Cryptocurrency Influencer

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: David Hochstein, has confirmed the return of the bull run in the cryptocurrency market.

Several of Gokhshtein’s Twitter followers agree with his sentiments on the crypto market.

Bitcoin price has gained 72.2% since the beginning of the year.

The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, embarked on a significant rally right from the beginning of the year. The Bitcoin price opened the year at $16,530 and surged past some significantly resistant levels in the first four weeks of the new year. Several analysts assumed the rally to be false, expecting the market to drop to lower levels before establishing a long-term rally.

A temporary pullback dragged the Bitcoin price down to $19,569 after reaching a high of $25,270. However, upward momentum returned to the market, coinciding with global macroeconomic factors and the struggles faced by mainstream banks in the past couple of weeks.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin price has risen to $28,433, representing a 72.2% gain since the beginning of the year.

BITCOIN is trading in a up channel; a upside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

Manufacturing PMI, U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

03 APRIL 2023 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the region. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

06 APRIL 2023 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the timeliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

Retail Sales (MoM), AUD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

03 APRIL 2023 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for most of the overall economic activity.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

Employment Change (Mar), CAD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

06 APRIL 2023 CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment Change reports the change in the number of people employed versus the prior month. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, NZD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

05 APRIL 2023 NZD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. As short-term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the NZD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the NZD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (STZ) to announce its Quarterly Results on 06 APRIL 2023, EPS is estimated to 1.84 per share while revenue is estimated 2.018B.
RPM INTERNATIONAL INC. (RPM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 05 APRIL 2023, EPS is estimated to 0.31 per share while revenue is estimated 1.472B.
LEVI STRAUSS & CO (LEVI) to announce its Quarterly Results on 06 APRIL 2023, EPS is estimated to 0.32 per share while revenue is estimated 1.623B.
DLOCAL LIMITED (DLO) to announce its Quarterly Results on 04 APRIL 2023, EPS estimated to 0.11 per share while revenue estimated 119.44M.
FREEDOM HOLDING CORP. (FRHC) to announce its Quarterly Results on 04 APRIL 2023 EPS is estimated 1.10 per share while revenue is estimated 185.209M.