WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY

06 Nov

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY – 06 November 2022

/ CSFX Analytics

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

03^rd NOVEMBER 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

GBPNZD is trading in downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

04^th NOVEMBER 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

USDNOK is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Trade Balance (Sep), GERMANY

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

02^nd NOVEMBER 2022 EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Trade Balance measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods over the month. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported.

EURTRY is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold Rockets, Dollar Plunges in Rare Pivot After Heady U.S. Jobs Report

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED:

It sounded almost like one of those allegations of manipulation you commonly hear in gold — only this time, those making the accusation were gold bears, not bulls.

Gold had its best percentage win in 2-½ years on Friday as the hedge funds that typically hammer the yellow metal at any given opportunity gave it surprising love instead after the monthly U.S. jobs report again overshot expectations — a situation that would normally benefit the dollar rather than gold.

The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, dropped to below 111 at Friday’s low despite the United States adding 261,000 jobs last month in its October non-farm payrolls report, almost 35% more than the 195,000 anticipated by economists. Just a day ago, the index hit a three-week high of 113.035.

U.S. gold futures settled Friday’s trade up 2.8% as the benchmark December contract finished up $45.70 at $1,676.60 per ounce on New York’s Comex. Investing.com data showed it was the biggest percentage win for gold in a day since April 2, 2020, when the benchmark contract then rose 2.9%.

On a weekly basis, December gold rose 1.9% for its best week in four.

The spot price of bullion, which is more closely followed than futures by some traders, was at $1,673.88 by 14:15 ET in New York (18:15 GMT). Just on Thursday, spot gold hit a five-week low of $1,616.69.

GOLD is trading in down channel; an downside will be seen in the coming days.

Oil settles up 5% as further interest rate hikes loom

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED:

Oil prices settled up by more than 5% on Friday amid uncertainty around future interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while a looming EU ban on Russian oil and the possibility of China easing some COVID restrictions supported markets.

Though fears of global recession capped gains, Brent crude futures settled up $3.99 to $98.57 per barrel, a weekly gain of 2.9%.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $2.96, or 5%, at $92.61, a 4.7% weekly gain.

China is sticking to its strict COVID-19 curbs after cases rose on Thursday to their highest since August, but a former Chinese disease control official said substantial changes to the country’s COVID-19 policy are to take place soon.

China’s stock markets have been buoyed this week by the rumours of an end to stringent lockdowns despite the lack of any announced changes.

However, signals about the size of U.S. interest rate hikes caused oil to pare some gains.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Popped and Dogecoin Flopped on Friday

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED:

Cryptocurrencies have been on a wild ride the last few weeks as everything from interest rates to Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter have caused volatility in the market.

On Friday, trading seemed to settle into a more normal place with industry leaders climbing. As of 2:40 p.m. ET, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) led the charge by climbing 6%, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was up 3.5%, and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) was up 2.2%.

Twitter has reportedly stopped the development of a crypto wallet, which could have been used to make it easier to use crypto on the social network. This is notable for Dogecoin because the token’s value has risen more than 100% since Elon Musk completed his purchase of Twitter.

BITCOIN is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

GDP (QoQ) (Q3), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

11^th NOVEMBER 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

CPI (MoM) (Oct), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

10^thNOVEMBER 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

CPI (YoY) (Oct), GERMANY

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

11^th NOVEMBER 2022 EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Household Spending (YoY) (Sep), JAPAN

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

07^th NOVEMBER 2022 JPY and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Household Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

CPI (MoM) (Oct), RUSSIA

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

09^th NOVEMBER 2022 RUB and its subsequent pairs

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the RUB, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the RUB.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

Walt Disney (DIS) to announce its Quarterly Results on 08^th NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.5875 per share while revenue estimated 21.38B.
CGI Inc (GIB) to announce its Quarterly Results on 09^thNOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 1.19 per share while revenue estimated 2.47B.
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 10^thNOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.7797 per share while revenue estimated 1.03B.
SoftBank Group (SFTBY) to announce its Quarterly Results on 11^thNOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.3834 per share while revenue estimated 11.38B.
Paysafe (PSFE) to announce its Quarterly Results on 10^th NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.0387 per share while revenue estimated 356.63M.