UK Industrial Production and US CPI Figures to Set the Tone for Currency Markets This Week.

Welcome to our comprehensive market report for the upcoming week. In this concise yet informative article, we will provide you with valuable insights and analysis of key events and trends that could impact various markets, including currencies, commodities, and indices. Stay ahead of the game and make informed decisions with our expert analysis.

Let’s start by examining the economic events that will have a significant influence on major currencies. On July 13, 2023, the UK will release its Industrial Production (MoM) report, which measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, quarries, and utilities. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be supportive of the British pound (GBP), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could have a negative impact on the currency. Traders and investors will closely watch this report for insights into the UK’s economic performance.

Similarly, on July 12, 2023, the US will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) report, which measures the change in prices of goods and services in a basket of consumer items. The CPI is a crucial indicator for central banks in maintaining price stability. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be bullish for the US dollar (USD), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could be bearish. This report will be closely watched as it provides important information about inflationary pressures in the US economy.

Moving on, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index, scheduled for release on July 11, 2023, will provide insights into the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be early indicators of future economic activity, such as spending, hiring, and investment. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be supportive for the Australian dollar (AUD), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could have a negative impact.

Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce their respective Interest Rate Decisions on July 12, 2023. As short-term interest rates are important determinants of currency valuation, these decisions are closely watched by traders. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be bullish for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD), while weaker-than-forecast readings could be bearish for the respective currencies.

Now let’s turn our attention to the commodities market. Gold, a highly sought-after precious metal, is currently trading in a downward channel. It is important to monitor key support and resistance levels as they can provide potential trading opportunities. Silver, another popular precious metal, is also trading in a downward channel. Traders will be watching key levels for potential buying or selling opportunities. Brent crude oil, a significant global energy commodity, is currently trading in an upward channel. Traders will monitor important support and resistance levels to identify potential price movements.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Litecoin are both showing upward trends. These cryptocurrencies have garnered significant attention and continue to attract traders and investors. Monitoring key levels and technical indicators can assist in making informed trading decisions.

Moving on to the forex market, we have several currency pairs exhibiting distinct trading patterns. EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD are all showing specific trends that traders can analyze and capitalize on. By closely monitoring support and resistance levels, traders can identify potential entry and exit points.

Lastly, we will provide an overview of the top indices for the upcoming week, including the Dow Jones and FTSE 100. These indices serve as benchmarks for broader market performance. Traders and investors will analyze key levels and trends to gain insights into market sentiment and potential opportunities.

Economic Events Influencing Major Currencies

UK Industrial Production (MoM) Report

Date: July 13, 2023

Influence: GBP and its subsequent pairs

The UK will release its Industrial Production (MoM) report, which measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, quarries, and utilities. This report provides insights into the UK’s economic performance. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be supportive of the British pound (GBP), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could have a negative impact on the currency. Traders and investors will closely watch this report for valuable information.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) Report

Date: July 12, 2023

Influence: USD and its subsequent pairs

The US will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) report, which measures the change in prices of goods and services in a basket of consumer items. This report is crucial for central banks in maintaining price stability. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be bullish for the US dollar (USD), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could be bearish. Traders will closely monitor this report to gain insights into inflationary pressures in the US economy.

NAB Business Confidence Index (Jun) Report, Australia

Date: July 11, 2023

Influence: AUD and its subsequent pairs

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be early indicators of future economic activity, such as spending, hiring, and investment. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be supportive for the Australian dollar (AUD), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could have a negative impact.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, New Zealand

Date: July 12, 2023

Influence: NZD and its subsequent pairs

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its Interest Rate Decision. As short-term interest rates play a significant role in currency valuation, traders closely watch these decisions. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be bullish for the New Zealand dollar (NZD), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could be bearish for the currency.

BoC Interest Rate Decision, Canada

Date: July 12, 2023

Influence: CAD and its subsequent pairs

The Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce its Interest Rate Decision. Traders closely monitor interest rate changes as they affect currency valuation. A stronger-than-forecast reading would be supportive of the Canadian dollar (CAD), while a weaker-than-forecast reading could have a negative impact on the currency.

Commodities Market Overview

Gold

Gold, a highly sought-after precious metal, is currently trading in a downward channel. It is important to monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities. The RSI is in the neutral zone, and the MACD and Bollinger Bands also indicate neutral market conditions. Traders should keep an eye on the 200-day moving average, as a break below it could lead to a more significant sell-off.

Silver

Silver, another popular precious metal, is also trading in a downward channel. Traders should watch key levels for potential buying or selling opportunities. The RSI and MACD indicate neutral market conditions, while the Bollinger Bands suggest high volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are sloping downward, indicating a bearish signal.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil, a significant global energy commodity, is currently trading in an upward channel. Traders should monitor important support and resistance levels to identify potential price movements. The RSI is bullish, indicating positive market sentiment. The MACD shows a neutral crossover, while the Bollinger Bands suggest lower volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are sloping downward, which may indicate a bearish signal.

Cryptocurrency Market Trends

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin is showing an upward trend. Traders and investors continue to show interest in this cryptocurrency. Monitoring key levels and technical indicators can assist in making informed trading decisions. The RSI is bullish, indicating positive market sentiment. The MACD shows a bearish crossover, suggesting caution. The Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility. Moving averages suggest a bullish trend, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping upward.

Litecoin

Litecoin is also showing an upward trend. Traders and investors are paying attention to this cryptocurrency. Monitoring key levels and technical indicators can assist in making informed trading decisions. The RSI is bullish, indicating positive market sentiment. The MACD shows a bullish crossover, suggesting a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility. Moving averages suggest a bullish trend, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping upward.

Top Currencies to Watch in the Coming Week

EURUSD

EURUSD is showing an upward trend. Traders can analyze and capitalize on this specific trend by closely monitoring support and resistance levels. The RSI is bullish, indicating positive market sentiment. The MACD shows a neutral crossover, suggesting a neutral signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate lower volatility. Moving averages suggest a bullish trend, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping upward.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is showing an upward trend. Traders can analyze and capitalize on this specific trend by closely monitoring support and resistance levels. The RSI is bullish, indicating positive market sentiment. The MACD shows a neutral crossover, suggesting a neutral signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility. Moving averages suggest a bullish trend, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping upward.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is showing a downward trend. Traders should be cautious and closely monitor support and resistance levels. The RSI is neutral, indicating mixed market sentiment. The MACD shows a bearish crossover, suggesting a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility. Moving averages suggest a bearish trend, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping downward.

Top Indices to Watch in the Coming Week

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones index is trading in a downward channel. Traders and investors analyze key levels and trends to gain insights into market sentiment and potential opportunities. The RSI is neutral, indicating mixed market sentiment. The MACD shows a neutral crossover, suggesting a neutral signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility. Moving averages suggest a bearish trend, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping downward.

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 index is trading in a downward channel. Traders and investors analyze key levels and trends to gain insights into market sentiment and potential opportunities. The RSI is bearish, indicating negative market sentiment. The MACD shows a bearish crossover, suggesting a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility. Moving averages suggest a bearish trend, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping downward.

  DATAWATCH

Market Recap Of The Past Week

Gold Holds Above $1,900 Despite Softer U.S. Jobs Report

What Influenced Gold?

Gold

What Happened?

Gold continues to maintain its position above $1,900 as the U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling. Following a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June, the futures of the yellow metal approached the mid-$1,900 mark on Friday. The spot price of bullion also remained close to that range. This suggests a possible tempering in the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance when its policymakers convene for their next rate review in three weeks.

The front-month August gold contract on New York’s Comex closed at $1,932.50 per ounce, marking a $17.35 increase or 0.9% for the day. Throughout the week, the benchmark gold futures contract remained relatively flat, gaining just over $3. On Friday, August gold reached a high of $1,940.90, a significant improvement compared to its three-month low of $1,900.60 observed the previous week.

Traders closely follow the spot price of gold, which reflects physical trades in bullion. It stood at $1,926.90, with an intraday high of $1,926.90. This contrasted with the three-month low of $1,893.01 witnessed last week. Currently, GOLD is trading in a downward channel, indicating a potential downside in the coming days.

Oil Reaches Monthly High as Rate Hike Concerns Ease

What Influenced Crude Oil?

Crude Oil

What Happened?

Oil bulls can breathe a sigh of relief as concerns about rate hikes ease. A softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June has suggested a tempering in the Federal Reserve’s hawkishness, providing some respite to the market. Furthermore, positive sentiment was also fueled by a weekly report on U.S. oil inventories published on Thursday, which revealed across-the-board draws for crude and fuel.

U.S. crude achieved a one-month high, with New York-based WTI (West Texas Intermediate) approaching $74 for the first time since June 5, reaching an intraday high of $73.91 per barrel. The U.S. crude benchmark settled at $73.86, recording a $2.06 increase or 2.9%. Meanwhile, London-based Brent settled at $78.47, a rise of $1.95 or 2.6%, after reaching a one-month high of $78.53.

During the week, WTI saw a 4.6% increase, building on the previous week’s gain of 2.1%. Brent also experienced growth, rising by 4.8% after a 1.4% gain in the prior week. WTI CRUDE OIL is currently trading in an upward channel, suggesting the potential for an upside in the coming days.

BTC Price Remains “Undoubtedly Bullish” as $30K Bitcoin Buyers Emerge

What Influenced Bitcoin?

Bitcoin

What Happened?

Bitcoin’s price may have returned to a familiar range after recent volatility, but one trader believes the overall picture remains “undoubtedly bullish.” Data from Coin Telegraph Markets Pro and Trading View indicates that BTC price has been hovering around $30,000 overnight.

Although Bitcoin bulls were hopeful that the cryptocurrency would break out of its months-long trading range after reaching new yearly highs the day before, the market experienced disappointment. Bitcoin faced rejection at $31,500 and subsequently dropped below the $30,000 mark shortly afterward, testing the lower end of the range.

Despite this short-term setback, longer-term perspectives maintain an overall bullish narrative. Traders view short-term retracements and sideways movements below resistance as necessary hurdles to overcome. Bitcoin is currently trading in an upward channel, suggesting potential growth in the coming days.

Retail Sales (MoM) (May), EUR

When Did This Happen?

06 JULY 2023

What Influenced This?

GBP and its subsequent pairs

What Happened?

Retail Sales measure the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. This indicator is crucial in assessing consumer spending, which accounts for a significant portion of overall economic activity.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

When Did This Happen?

06 JULY 2023

What Influenced This?

USD and its subsequent pairs

What Happened?

Initial Jobless Claims tracks the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the previous week. While this data is considered the most timely indicator of the U.S. economy, its market impact varies from week to week.

Currently, USDZAR is trending upward. The coming week may witness further upside potential.

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul), AUD

When Did This Happen?

04 JULY 2023

What Influenced This?

AUD and its subsequent pairs

What Happened?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its decision on the benchmark interest rate. As short-term interest rates play a crucial role in determining currency valuation, traders closely monitor changes in interest rates.

At present, AUDUSD is trading in a downward channel, indicating a potential downside in the coming week.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this market report provides valuable insights and analysis for the coming week. Stay informed, monitor key events, and make well-informed decisions. Remember to consider all aspects, conduct thorough research, and implement appropriate risk management strategies. Happy trading!

FAQ

Q: What is the UK Industrial Production (MoM) report?

A: The UK Industrial Production (MoM) report measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, quarries, and utilities.

Q: How does the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) report impact the USD?

A: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) report measures the change in prices of goods and services in a basket of consumer items. A stronger-than-forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Q: What does the NAB Business Confidence Index (Jun) report indicate?

A: The NAB Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. A stronger-than-forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

Q: What is the significance of the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision for NZD?

A: The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is important for currency valuation. A stronger-than-forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the NZD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the NZD.

Q: How does the BoC Interest Rate Decision impact the CAD?

A: The BoC Interest Rate Decision affects currency valuation. A stronger-than-forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

Q: What is the outlook for gold in the commodities market?

A: Gold is currently trading in a downward channel. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.