. Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 10 June 2023

Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 10 June 2023

Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 10 June 2023

10 Jun 2023

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr), EUR

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

06 JUNE 2023                                                              GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for most of the overall economic activity.

Services PMI (May), U.S.

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

05 JUNE 2023                                                               USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels, and restaurants.
An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration.

USDZAR is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION (Jun), AUD

WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

06 JUNE 2023                                                               AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reports its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. As short-term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.

AUDUSD is trading in a downward channel. The further downside can be seen in the coming week.

As the dollar plunges due to Fed bets to stop, gold is rising.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED: Gold and broader metal markets steadied on Friday and were set for a second week of gains, as the dollar retreated amid bets that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate hike cycle next week.

The yellow metal marked its best intraday gain in two weeks on Thursday, coming to the upper end of a trading range seen since mid-May as a jump in weekly U.S. jobless claims ramped up bets on a Fed pause.

The dollar marked its sharpest drop since late March following the data, while Treasury yields also eased, which in turn benefited metal markets priced in the greenback.

Spot gold was flat at $1,965.04 an ounce, while gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,979.75 an ounce by 20:09 ET (00:09 GMT). Both instruments were up about 0.8% for the week.

While the yellow metal is expected to see some support if the Fed pauses next week, its gains are expected to be limited with U.S. interest rates likely staying higher for longer this year.

Uncertainty over the Fed and the economy has also kept gold within a tight trading range since mid-May after the yellow metal tumbled below the closely watched $2,000 an ounce level.

GOLD is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

Oil falls for a second consecutive week as concerns about demand outweigh Saudi cuts.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: – Oil prices fell more than a dollar a barrel on Friday to record a second straight weekly decline, as disappointing Chinese data added to doubts about demand growth after Saudi Arabia’s weekend decision to cut output.

Brent crude futures fell $1.17, or 1.5%, to settle at $74.79 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.12, or 1.6%, to $70.17 a barrel.

Both benchmarks lost more than $3 on Thursday after a media report that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal was imminent and would result in more supply. Prices pared losses after both countries denied the report, ending about a dollar a barrel lower.

“Thursday’s price moves show how fragile oil is,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Stanovoy.

“The Saudi cut lifted prices slightly, and then the chatter of the potential return of Iranian barrels saw a large drop. Long investors are likely on the sidelines until larger oil inventory declines become visible,” he said.

Oil prices had risen early in the week, buoyed by Saudi Arabia’s pledge over the weekend to cut more output on top of the cuts agreed earlier with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

However, a rise in U.S. fuel stocks and weak Chinese export data have weighed on the markets.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

During the week, Bitcoin declined.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: During a week that was marked by talks and worries about the U.S. debt ceiling, negotiations, and resurrected inflation worries, bitcoin fell. In keeping with its recent pattern, a strong jobs report that helped equities caused BTC to remain somewhat depressed on Friday.

The positive jobs report showed a tight labor market, indicating that the economy is still expanding and that inflationary concerns are still there. On the strength of successful debt ceiling discussions, expectations for rate increases in June have been reduced, and we place emphasis on the FOMC meeting next week for additional direction.

Throughout the week, BTC found support at the 100-day moving average, displaying its ongoing toughness, and Ethereum has consistently displayed relative strength despite the predominating macroeconomic worries.

Bitcoin is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.  

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) U.K.

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14 JUNE 2023                                                               GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced.
A reading that is stronger than the forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

CPI (MoM) (May), U.S.

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

13 JUNE 2023                                                               USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central Bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD

Employment Change (May), AUD

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 JUNE 2023                                                              AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Employment Change reports the change in the number of people employed across Australia. Jobs and the income they generate is an important factors in consumer spending.

A reading that is stronger than the forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

GDP (QoQ) (Q1), NZD

WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 JUNE 2023                                                            NZD and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than the forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

Industrial Production (YoY) (May), CNY

WHEN:                                                                          WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 MAY 2023                                                              CNY and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the JPY, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the JPY.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

  1. ADOBE INC. (ADBE) is to announce its Quarterly Results on 15 JUNE 2023, EPS is estimated to 3.79 per share while revenue is estimated at 4.77B.
  2. LENNAR CORPORATION (LEN) is to announce its Quarterly Results on 14 JUNE 2023, EPS is estimated to be 2.31 per share while revenue is estimated at 7.194B.
  3. JABIL INC. (JBL) to announce its Quarterly Results on 15 JUNE 2023, EPS estimated to 1.88 per share while revenue estimated 8.192B.
  4. ITERIS INC. (ITI) to announce its Quarterly Results on 13 JUNE 2023, EPS estimated to 0.04 per share while revenue estimated 40.473M.
  5. ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC. (ASTL) to announce its Quarterly Results on 14 JUNE 2023 EPS estimated 0.01 per share while revenue estimated 494.326M.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

 GOLD

GOLD is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days. 

SILVER

SILVER is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

 BRENT CRUDE OIL

BRENT CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

 BTCUSD

BTCUSD is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days

LITECOIN

LITECOIN is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.  

 TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

 EURUSD

EURUSD is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

 DOW JONES

DOW JONES is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

 FTSE 100

FTSE 100 is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

  DATA WATCH