12 Mar

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY – 12 MARCH 2023

/ CSFX Analytics

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

GDP (QoQ) (Q4), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

08 MARCH 2023 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

EURGBP is currently in downward channel. Further downside can be seen in coming week.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

09 MARCH 2023 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the timeliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

USDZAR is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION (MAR), AUD

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

07 MARCH 2023 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reports its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. As short-term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.

AUDUSD is trading in downward channel. Further downside can be seen in coming week.

Gold at month high as modest U.S. jobs growth plays down rate hike fears

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED: Gold hit a one-month high Friday in a sign that it may be ready to break free of the mid-$1,800 range it has been trapped in the past four weeks after benign U.S. jobs growth for February signalled a smaller rate hike than initially thought.

The United States added 311,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department said Friday, reporting a number that again beat forecasts but not as much as in January, in what could be a relief to the Federal Reserve’s task of lowering inflation amid persistently strong labour and wage growth.

Last month’s growth in so-called nonfarm payrolls comes after the outsized addition of 504,000 jobs in January. Economists had forecast a growth of 205,000 in February and 185,000 in January. In a further relief to the Fed, the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% last month from 3.4% in January.

Responding to the latest nonfarm payrolls report, gold for April delivery on New York’s Comex settled Friday’s trading at $1,867.20 an ounce, up $32.60, or 1.8%. The session high was $1,871.85, a peak since the $1,884.60 registered on Feb. 9

For the week, April gold rose 0.7%.

The spot price of gold, more closely followed than futures by some traders, was at $1,862.90 by 15:00 ET (20:00 GMT), up $32.02, or 1.8% on the day. The session high for spot gold was $1,867.36.

GOLD is trading in up down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

Oil prices rise after buoyant U.S. payrolls

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Friday after better-than-expected U.S. employment data, though both benchmarks fell more than 3% on the week on U.S. interest rate hike jitters.

Brent rose $1.19, or 1.5%, to $82.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 96 cents, or 1.3%, at $76.68.

Expectations of further rate hikes in the world’s largest economy and in Europe have clouded the global growth outlook and driven both crude benchmarks down this week.

“Oil prices are fluctuating wildly on renewed fears of Fed interest rate increases,” said Price Group analyst Phil Flynn.

A strengthening dollar is also making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Global shares, which often move in tandem with oil prices, hit a two-month low as investors dumped banks.

Broader U.S. employment data for February beat expectations with nonfarm payrolls rising by 311,000, compared with expectations of 205,000 jobs added, according to a Reuters survey. This is likely to ensure that the Fed will raise interest rates for longer, which analysts have said would weigh on oil prices.

On the supply side, major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Iran, both members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, re-established ties after days of previously undisclosed talks in Beijing.

U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 590 this week, their lowest since June, according to data from Baker Hughes.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in an up channel; a upside will be seen in the coming days.

Crypto Influencer Gets Called Out for Conflicting Bitcoin Outlook

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: BTC price targets extend to $18,000 with Bitcoin bulls increasingly failing to preserve $20,000 as support amid further SVB Financial fallout.

Bitcoin

BTC $20,210

struggled to reclaim $20,000 support at the March 10 Wall Street open as fears mounted over Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) contagion.

Data from Coin telegraph Markets Pro and Trading View followed BTC/USD as it nursed fresh losses, reaching $19,569 on Bit stamp.

The pair had seen further downside prior to the open as embattled SVB Financial saw another 60% wiped off its stock price.

In a move that mimicked crypto exchange banking partner silver gate, SVB also began to spark knock-on effects for non-United States banks on the day.

For Coin telegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, the writing was on the wall.

“First it was Silverglate, then Silicon Valley Bank and now First Republic Bank. All sinking massively on the markets. It’s 2008 all over again,” he summarized.

With that, U.S. equities started the March 10 session in the red as nervous traders waited to see the full extent of the SVB contagion.

BITCOIN is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 MARCH 2023 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 MARCH 2023 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for most of the overall economic activity.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Employment Change (Feb), AUD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

16 MARCH 2023 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment Change reports the change in the number of people employed across Australia. Jobs and the income they generate is an important factor in consumer spending.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan), CAD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14 MARCH 2023 CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Manufacturing Sales reports the change in the value of sales made by manufacturers across Canada.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

GDP (QoQ) (Q4), NZD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

16 MARCH 2023 NZD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the NZD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the NZD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

ADOBE INC. (ADBE) to announce its Quarterly Results on 15 MARCH 2023, EPS estimated to 3.68 per share while revenue estimated 4.623B.
PDD HOLDINGS INC. (PDD) to announce its Quarterly Results on 15 MARCH 2023, EPS estimated to 1.23 per share while revenue is estimated 5.969B.
FEDEX CORPORATION (FDX) to announce its Quarterly Results on 16 FEBRUARY 2023, EPS estimated to 2.71 per share while revenue estimated 22.762B.
JABIL, INC (JBL) to announce its Quarterly Results on 16 MARCH 2023, EPS estimated to 1.85 per share while revenue estimated 8.089B.
DOLLAR GENERATION CORPORATION, (DG). to announce its Quarterly Results on 16 MARCH 2023, EPS estimated to 2.98 per share while revenue estimated 10.243B.